US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

Word is the idea of combining Fattah and Schwartz (or Brady and Fattah which seemed to be dismissed awhile ago anyway) is off the table. Schwartz will pick up Lower Merion and I guess keep her parts of NE Philly (though probably giving up a few areas to Brady and/or Fattah). As expected, Fitz is going to lose his parts of the Northeast. Gone are my very slim hopes of somehow being drawn into the district that is only across the street from me. 


http://www.politicspa.com/insider-redistricting-nirvana-via-capitolwire/29808/

[traininthedistance]

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Wow.  Just wow.  I guess that's what it takes to keep the 7th securely Republican.  I wonder what Pitts will think?

They may just outdo North Carolina here.

[Keystone Phil]

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Wow.  Just wow.  I guess that's what it takes to keep the 7th securely Republican.  I wonder what Pitts will think?

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I still don't think this is as much as what Flyers' likes to make out of the 16th but it sure makes things more interesting.

[Torie]

Word is the idea of combining Fattah and Schwartz (or Brady and Fattah which seemed to be dismissed awhile ago anyway) is off the table. Schwartz will pick up Lower Merion and I guess keep her parts of NE Philly (though probably giving up a few areas to Brady and/or Fattah). As expected, Fitz is going to lose his parts of the Northeast. Gone are my very slim hopes of somehow being drawn into the district that is only across the street from me.  


http://www.politicspa.com/insider-redistricting-nirvana-via-capitolwire/29808/

Combining the prior leaked map of PA-17, something like this perhaps for SE PA?   The partisan numbers of this map reasonably "work" for the Pubbies, and the PA-17 box car shape in turn boxes in the shape of PA-16; thus the map.

[RBH]

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Wow.  Just wow.  I guess that's what it takes to keep the 7th securely Republican.  I wonder what Pitts will think?

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I still don't think this is as much as what Flyers' likes to make out of the 16th but it sure makes things more interesting.

Should be an awesome map if they keep Kennett Square in the 16th and move the 17th into Lancaster.

[Torie]

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Wow.  Just wow.  I guess that's what it takes to keep the 7th securely Republican.  I wonder what Pitts will think?

Yeah, that's what I was thinking. I still don't think this is as much as what Flyers' likes to make out of the 16th but it sure makes things more interesting.

Should be an awesome map if they keep Kennett Square in the 16th and move the 17th into Lancaster.

I can't believe that will happen. Pitts will have to relocate. Otherwise the map will be a series of ludicrous snakes. Rumor had it that Pitts was bitching about the map from day one anyway. Maybe this has something to do with it. He should retire actually. He's a aging back bencher nebbish.

[RBH]

It would not stun me if there was a snake "lets negate all these Dems by having the districts go into Republican turf" idea by the end of the SEPA line drawing.

so I decided to make SWPA more ridiculous for fun on my map



4: 56/43 McCain, 53.5/46.5 Rep
14: 69/30 Obama, 70.5/29.5 Dem
18: 53/46 McCain, 51/49 Dem

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Okay, let's go insane gerrymander for potential 12-4:



PA-01 - 88.1 Obama, 11.4 McCain, 86.9 D avg
PA-02 - 86.3 Obama, 13.3 McCain, 84.2 D avg, 51.2% black VAP
PA-03 - 51.7 McCain, 46.9 Obama, 50.9 R avg
PA-04 - 55.0 McCain, 44.0 Obama, 51.6 R avg
PA-05 - 52.9 McCain, 45.6 Obama, 53.3 R avg
PA-06 - 52.9 Obama, 46.1 McCain, 51.0 R avg
PA-07 - 52.8 Obama, 46.3 McCain, 50.1 D avg
PA-08 - 53.5 Obama, 45.4 McCain, 52.3 D avg
PA-09 - 59.4 McCain, 39.5 Obama, 61.0 R avg
PA-10 - 53.6 McCain, 45.1 Obama, 57.5 R avg
PA-11 - 56.5 McCain, 42.2 Obama, 59.1 R avg
PA-12 - 52.0 McCain, 46.9 Obama, 57.6 R avg
PA-13 - 54.2 Obama, 44.8 McCain, 52.1 D avg
PA-14 - 68.6 Obama, 30.4 McCain, 70.5 D avg
PA-15 - 53.1 Obama, 45.6 McCain, 51.3 D avg
PA-16 - 51.8 Obama, 47.4 McCain, 54.3 R avg
PA-17 - 62.1 Obama, 36.8 McCain, 61.6 D avg
PA-18 - 54.6 McCain, 44.4 Obama, 50.5 R avg

[TeePee4Prez]

Okay, let's go insane gerrymander for potential 12-4:



PA-01 - 88.1 Obama, 11.4 McCain, 86.9 D avg
PA-02 - 86.3 Obama, 13.3 McCain, 84.2 D avg, 51.2% black VAP
PA-03 - 51.7 McCain, 46.9 Obama, 50.9 R avg
PA-04 - 55.0 McCain, 44.0 Obama, 51.6 R avg
PA-05 - 52.9 McCain, 45.6 Obama, 53.3 R avg
PA-06 - 52.9 Obama, 46.1 McCain, 51.0 R avg
PA-07 - 52.8 Obama, 46.3 McCain, 50.1 D avg
PA-08 - 53.5 Obama, 45.4 McCain, 52.3 D avg
PA-09 - 59.4 McCain, 39.5 Obama, 61.0 R avg
PA-10 - 53.6 McCain, 45.1 Obama, 57.5 R avg
PA-11 - 56.5 McCain, 42.2 Obama, 59.1 R avg
PA-12 - 52.0 McCain, 46.9 Obama, 57.6 R avg
PA-13 - 54.2 Obama, 44.8 McCain, 52.1 D avg
PA-14 - 68.6 Obama, 30.4 McCain, 70.5 D avg
PA-15 - 53.1 Obama, 45.6 McCain, 51.3 D avg
PA-16 - 51.8 Obama, 47.4 McCain, 54.3 R avg
PA-17 - 62.1 Obama, 36.8 McCain, 61.6 D avg
PA-18 - 54.6 McCain, 44.4 Obama, 50.5 R avg

This is an overreach that could BADLY backfire for the GOP in a wave year.  A Blue Dog could easily win every non-Philly/suburban Philly, Pittsburgh district except PA-9.  And I had this thought for PA 17.  With a district THAT Democratic, I think we can primary Holden in favor of full fledged Democrat.  A PA 3/4/5/10/11/12 I'll suck up a Blue Dog/Bob Casey-like Dem who will vote my way 60-70% of the time and be winnable.  For this type of PA 17, I'll want a more liberal Dem.

[TeePee4Prez]

Message to PA GOP: I DOUBLE DOG DARE YOU TO OVERREACH ON REAPPORTIONMENT!

Wouldn't it be funny to have the GOP left with only PA 9?  Put Blue Dogs in districts west of the Susquehanna and north of PA-17 except Pittsburgh, I could see it happen with that map in a 2006/8-like wave.  Even with the map, we can get away with full fledged Dems east of Harrisburg.

Of course, I would have liked to see a non-ideological, even county truce, but that's what few in the GOP want.  They smell blood, they take advantage.

[Brittain33]

The Keystone Kops are going to release their gerrymander on Monday.

[minionofmidas]

If you want to eliminate Critz' district, not endanger Murphy, and improve Kelly and Altmire's opponent, then yeah, that means the southern tentacle for the Pittsburgh district, the suburbs of Erie for the fifth as indicated above, and Johnstown for the 9th.

[Keystone Phil]

Message to PA GOP: I DOUBLE DOG DARE YOU TO OVERREACH ON REAPPORTIONMENT!

This is exactly what I was talking about. Take it out of this thread.

Wouldn't it be funny to have the GOP left with only PA 9?  Put Blue Dogs in districts west of the Susquehanna and north of PA-17 except Pittsburgh, I could see it happen with that map in a 2006/8-like wave.  Even with the map, we can get away with full fledged Dems east of Harrisburg.

Uh, this is about as stupid as the thought process behind a GOP overreach. The thought of sweeping is so insane. You'd need something bigger than 2008 to take everything you're talking about.

[minionofmidas]

Re that map... I'm seriously surprised how that 5th turns out so marginal. Did you add all of Erie or what?

[Keystone Phil]

Re that map... I'm seriously surprised how that 5th turns out so marginal. Did you add all of Erie or what?

For the record: it was confirmed that Erie is being split between the 3rd and 5th.

[minionofmidas]

So probably going for roughly even numbers in 3, 4, 5 and 18? God, you gotta hope this badfires. (Altmire hanging on wouldn't be. Even Kelly losing eventually wouldn't be. And Murphy is probably safe for the decade in anything carried by McCain except maybe if he got Johnstown or something. So yeah, let's hope for Glenn Thompson to lose out of nowhere. )

[minionofmidas]

I like how we're being teased with bits of info without any draft maps, and have been for months, btw.

[Brittain33]

Message to PA GOP: I DOUBLE DOG DARE YOU TO OVERREACH ON REAPPORTIONMENT!

This is exactly what I was talking about. Take it out of this thread.

Woofing and gloating about redistricting is a big problem on this board... I started doing it in response to people on the other side, it just started making me feel and look like an a-hole without anyone else changing. Unless and until it becomes something moderators want to check or people decide to control themselves, we're going to have an ongoing tide of negativity surrounding redistricting.

[Brittain33]

I like how we're being teased with bits of info without any draft maps, and have been for months, btw.

I didn't post the link, but someone said Monday is the date for the map, so this has been ramping up deliberately for the last week or two. We've been getting stuff from Phil on and off for months but it's only recently been in the news.

[Keystone Phil]

Message to PA GOP: I DOUBLE DOG DARE YOU TO OVERREACH ON REAPPORTIONMENT!

This is exactly what I was talking about. Take it out of this thread.

Woofing and gloating about redistricting is a big problem on this board... I started doing it in response to people on the other side, it just started making me feel and look like an a-hole without anyone else changing. Unless and until it becomes something moderators want to check or people decide to control themselves, we're going to have an ongoing tide of negativity surrounding redistricting.

I don't even care about the minor partisan cheering but Flyers' attitude in general is just so obnoxious. Talk about the potential maps, your ideas about for other maps and throw in a partisan comment here and there. That's it.

[Torie]

We shall see how close the Monday map is to the one below.

[minionofmidas]

5th'll go further west, 3rd and 14th further south, 9th won't go to those two western counties.

I mean, they've confirmed they'll split Erie County, you probably drew Altmire's prospective challenger into the Pittsburgh seat, and Shuster has clout and I don't see that Thompson has.

I can totally see them doing some half-assed compromise about Schwartz. They seem to hate her too much to do the logical thing and draw her a total sink.
I can never remember where the diverse R incumbents west of Philly live and what they represent exactly, so can't comment.

But we'll find out, we'll find out.

[Torie]

Lewis  my man, what you suggest makes PA-16 and PA-05 way too marginal. I don't get the Erie split at all. PA-05 can't take that hit and keep Centre County (Thompson's home county) as well. The way I drew PA-03 moots the need to split Erie.  It is 50.2% McCain, with a GOP PVI of 4.4%. Even though PA-04 continues to hold those Dem precincts at its northern end to help out PA-03 (I actually added 3 more Dem precincts to it up there), it is 55.5% McCain. There are no juicy Dem precincts for PA-14 to pick up farther south, so why should it go there?  I scrubbed the area thoroughly. PA-14 goes where the Dems are, and it would be a sin if any of its precincts were less than 55% Obama, absent some good reason.

PA-16 needs to suck up all of Reading, and that means it needs to lose some toxic precincts in Lancaster City. The rumor of the shape of PA-17 really cuts down the options, for a map that makes any partisan sense. Its shape forces PA-09 in "those two western counties."  So yes, I followed some rumors, and dumped others. One of the rumors had PA-10 90,000 short in population for example.

The Pubbie incumbents all live in their districts except for Pitts in PA-16. To accommodate him would make the map horrific looking - just awful. Can you imagine PA-16 going from Kennett Square in Chester all the way to Reading, avoiding some of Lancaster City, with PA-07 taking a chunk of central Lancaster County? PA-16 would end up with a one precinct wide corridor to get from south Lancaster to north Lancaster in-between Lancaster City and the PA-07 prong into Lancaster.  Oh dear! It is time to just say no to that.

[minionofmidas]

Lewis  my man, what you suggest makes PA-16 and PA-05 way too marginal. I don't get the Erie split at all. PA-05 can't take that hit and keep Centre County (Thompson's home county) as well. The way I drew PA-03 moots the need to split Erie.  It is 50.2% McCain, with a GOP PVI of 4.4%.

That's barely changed. It was lost before. It can easily be brought up to 52 without weakening the Altmire district much (and I do think it'll be sorta 13-5-1... as in, Altmire sort of targetted but no so much that defeating him might come at the price of losing somebody else). And that was just splitting off the Erie suburbs, I never split the city.

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Uh, what? Western Fayette is chock full of them. They're in it in your earlier maps. Murphy's home town needs to be bypassed to the west, of course.

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Okay, so I never really bothered looking at E PA from a gerrying perspective. Obviously (5+9) needs to move west. Johnstown+parts of Erie does the trick nicely but I didn't do the sums as to what territory they need to lose. You could probably carve up Centre though, depending on where Thompson lives. It's not as if State College is likely to be "his base" or anything.

[Torie]

Lewis, I followed the rumor that all of Greene and Fayette would be placed in PA-12, and it actually makes some partisan sense to do so. As it is, PA-14 has very few sub 55% Obama precincts. The rumor is that it is going up the river into Beaver County, rather than south. That is what I did.

PA-03 is currently at 3.7% GOP PVI, and is now at a 4.6% GOP PVI, so it went up almost a full point. It is pretty close to being out of reach of the Dems now. Erie County trended Dem in 2008, unlike most of Western PA by the way.

I put up my partisan matrix chart for my Pubbie guesstimate map above, in case anyone is interested. It will be interesting to compare the numbers with the actual Pubbie map. Are the Pubbies going to get more aggressive than the rumors and the amount of jurisdictional boundary respect that I hewed to get more of an advantage or not? Will PA-17 crack into Northhampton County to grab Easton per one of the rumors to get the Pubbie numbers up in PA-15 (with PA-16 in turn having to crack into suburban Dauphin County), which per my map may be a bit of a challenge for any Pubbie  other than Dent to hold?  (That is an obvious fix if the rumor map is false, and the Pubs are willing to trash jurisdictional boundaries some more.) Or will ego based politics cause a Pubbie erosion of the numbers? We shall see.