US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Verily]

Maybe we're misunderstanding each other. I just don't like the Pittsburgh district going all the way to the Washington and Westmoreland County lines.

So I think I understand that you would prefer a three-way split of Allegheny. The southern part of Allegheny would go with Fayette, Greene, and Washington. The northern part would go with Butler and Armstrong. You didn't seem to like Beaver with Butler; is putting it with Washington, etc. OK?

Not quite. I'm fine with the two-way split of Allegheny. I just like where Torie put PA-14 within Allegheny better than where you put it. (My own map has a small bit of Allegheny in the Greene-Fayette-Washington CD, but I did a lot of unnecessary but COI-based county splits because I don't find counties holy at all.

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I understand that, I was trying to understand why you thought Torie's was better, when it seemed much the same as mine.
[/quote]

It is. I just liked the way he used the split of Carbon to create highway connectivity between Monroe and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.

[muon2]

Here's a version incorporating Verily's suggestions for western PA. I've also made some adjustments to SE PA.  I still like to rely on whole counties, since that is one of the defensible criteria to allow deviations in excess of one person. CoI is a nebulous criteria and exact population equality would generally be needed.

Here were my criteria and their impact on the map:

Districts are drawn to use whole counties to the extent possible and counties larger than one district have as many whole districts within as possible. The map divides three counties other than the ones that have whole districts within. Within counties no city or township is divided. Within Philly no ward is divided.

Instead of limiting the deviation, I limited the range from the smallest to largest district to be less than 1%. This is from SCOTUS decisions, and note that a 0.5% deviation limit results in a 1% range limit. The population range here is less than 1% (-0.7% to +0.3%) and the mean deviation is 884 persons.

CD 2 is designed to comply with the VRA and is 61.8% BVAP. CD 1 keeps the Hispanic wards together and is 18.8% HVAP and 18.2% BVAP. CD 1 also includes Chinatown and the Asian areas of S Philly with 7.6% AVAP.

[Keystone Phil]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

[muon2]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

And it works out that Bucks + Ward 58 + Ward 65 (which one is you?) is just 25 persons over the ideal size. How does the CD 1 / CD 2 split look to an insider like yourself?

[RBH]

Dave Wasserman says via Tweeter

"PA MAP: Hearing rumors GOP delegation very concerned that legislature's draft map = 2001-style overreach, particularly in SW PA"
"PA Map: delegation unhappy w/ proposed changes to #PA18 Murphy, #PA05 Thompson CDs in order to help Turzai ally state Rep. Jim Christiana"

[Brittain33]

Dave Wasserman says via Tweeter

"PA MAP: Hearing rumors GOP delegation very concerned that legislature's draft map = 2001-style overreach, particularly in SW PA"

Between that, the Gingrich surge, and the TX map, this is all becoming too good to be true.

C'mon, Pubbies. PA should totally be a 14-4 map. Anything less is leaving money on the table.

[Brittain33]

"PA Map: delegation unhappy w/ proposed changes to #PA18 Murphy, #PA05 Thompson CDs in order to help Turzai ally state Rep. Jim Christiana"

I take it this means Torie's octopus reaches up to grab the Dem heart of PA-4, and what remains is recrafted as a more Republican district at the expense of the districts named in the tweet.

Another tweet mentions that Johnstown goes to PA-9. So perhaps they dismantle PA-12 and give those SW Dem, anti-Obama counties to Murphy.

[minionofmidas]

Yes, that does sound like they're trying to limit West PA Dems to one district.
That's still 13-5 though, as they're apparently conceding to Holden.

[Keystone Phil]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

And it works out that Bucks + Ward 58 + Ward 65 (which one is you?) is just 25 persons over the ideal size. How does the CD 1 / CD 2 split look to an insider like yourself?

I'm the 65th. I like the look of the 1st and 2nd, too. 

[Keystone Phil]

I take it this means Torie's octopus reaches up to grab the Dem heart of PA-4, and what remains is recrafted as a more Republican district at the expense of the districts named in the tweet.

Yeah, Christiana is running in the 4th. Not sure how they're going to manage to pull this off...

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, Christiana is running in the 4th. Not sure how they're going to manage to pull this off...

?

Or does that put him in the wrong CD (the same as Murphy)?

[Keystone Phil]

He lives in the town of Beaver. Not sure where exactly. I actually sort of know him (met him several times and we have mutual friends). He's a good guy and has run excellent campaigns in the past. He beat an incumbent Democratic State Representative in 2008 in a Democratic district. He won re-election comfortably. He'd be one of the best to take on Altmire but it will still be tough.

By the way, he's still technically "exploring" a run.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Yeah, Christiana is running in the 4th. Not sure how they're going to manage to pull this off...

?

Or does that put him in the wrong CD (the same as Murphy)?

What the hell is that thing?

[minionofmidas]

Torie's plan. Pittsburgh Dem maxpack. I think that wasn't even the final version. The final version headed on to New Castle.

[traininthedistance]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

And it works out that Bucks + Ward 58 + Ward 65 (which one is you?) is just 25 persons over the ideal size. How does the CD 1 / CD 2 split look to an insider like yourself?

That's a very good CD 1 / CD 2 split; Broad Street is as natural a line as any.  I was working on my own whole-counties PA plan (which is unsurprisingly more Dem-friendly than yours) but apparently I can't post it yet because I haven't been here long enough.  I'll get it up eventually.

[muon2]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

And it works out that Bucks + Ward 58 + Ward 65 (which one is you?) is just 25 persons over the ideal size. How does the CD 1 / CD 2 split look to an insider like yourself?

That's a very good CD 1 / CD 2 split; Broad Street is as natural a line as any.  I was working on my own whole-counties PA plan (which is unsurprisingly more Dem-friendly than yours) but apparently I can't post it yet because I haven't been here long enough.  I'll get it up eventually.

If you have a link to your image somewhere, I'll be happy to post it. I'll also be interested to see one crafted for the Ds, since I didn't use partisan data to draw my version, it's just based on geography and minority populations.

[TeePee4Prez]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

Putting the entire 58th in CD 8 is an enigma.  On one hand, Obama didn't do as hot as I thought he would there.  On the other, do you really see the liberal Jewish voters giving Fitzpatrick another term?  If the grab was solely the conservative area around St. Chris' then I'd say it's a smart move for the GOP.

[TeePee4Prez]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

And it works out that Bucks + Ward 58 + Ward 65 (which one is you?) is just 25 persons over the ideal size. How does the CD 1 / CD 2 split look to an insider like yourself?

That's a very good CD 1 / CD 2 split; Broad Street is as natural a line as any.  I was working on my own whole-counties PA plan (which is unsurprisingly more Dem-friendly than yours) but apparently I can't post it yet because I haven't been here long enough.  I'll get it up eventually.

Welcome to the Forum!  I'm from Northeast Philly born and raised, but leaving soon.  I heard a rumor of a CD 2/13 merger to force Fattah and Schwartz into a primary.  While it would be a bruiser, on one hand I could see making Gerlach/Meehan/Fitzpatrick more vulnerable.  I agree Broad St. is an excellent CD 1/2 split.  Thing is I feel Bob Brady is a better representative for South Philly in total along with the "River Wards" of Fishtown/Port Richmond, etc. while Fattah would  well represent parts east of Broad St. north of Center City that Brady currently represents.

[traininthedistance]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

And it works out that Bucks + Ward 58 + Ward 65 (which one is you?) is just 25 persons over the ideal size. How does the CD 1 / CD 2 split look to an insider like yourself?

That's a very good CD 1 / CD 2 split; Broad Street is as natural a line as any.  I was working on my own whole-counties PA plan (which is unsurprisingly more Dem-friendly than yours) but apparently I can't post it yet because I haven't been here long enough.  I'll get it up eventually.

Welcome to the Forum!  I'm from Northeast Philly born and raised, but leaving soon.  I heard a rumor of a CD 2/13 merger to force Fattah and Schwartz into a primary.  While it would be a bruiser, on one hand I could see making Gerlach/Meehan/Fitzpatrick more vulnerable.  I agree Broad St. is an excellent CD 1/2 split.  Thing is I feel Bob Brady is a better representative for South Philly in total along with the "River Wards" of Fishtown/Port Richmond, etc. while Fattah would  well represent parts east of Broad St. north of Center City that Brady currently represents.

Really?  They'd try and force all the Democratic voters in SEPA into only two districts?  I can't imagine that being anything but an extreme dummymander.  Even a GOP gerrymander would need one Dem vote sink in the suburbs, and the remaining districts are still swingy.

Broad Street already is much of the 1/2 boundary, and while it's not absolutely perfect, it works well on a community-by-community basis.  Brady is definitely more of the South Philly rep, but having Point Breeze in Fattah's district makes sense; likewise I think keeping the Hispanic part of North Philly in Brady's district is a fine outcome.  What I'd really like to see is Cheltenham and Brady's portion of Delco removed and given to 7/13, but of course the GOP is going to have none of that.

[Keystone Phil]

Muon, I love how you took my entire Ward and put it in the 8th! It would make the district more Democratic but the other half of the NE part of the district would even it out. Plus, taking the Montco part out of the 8th would probably help the GOP enough so my Ward wouldn't matter.

Putting the entire 58th in CD 8 is an enigma.  On one hand, Obama didn't do as hot as I thought he would there.  On the other, do you really see the liberal Jewish voters giving Fitzpatrick another term?  If the grab was solely the conservative area around St. Chris' then I'd say it's a smart move for the GOP.

The 58th isn't as Democratic as you'd think. It certainly isn't as Democratic as I once thought. Somerton really helps the GOP numbers ("the conservative area around St. Chris'"). It isn't mostly liberal Jewish voters. Plus, as I said in an earlier post, adding more of these areas wouldn't be much of a problem for the Republicans since the Montco portion would be out of the 8th.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hey, if the GOP wants to forego a Democratic Northeast Philadelphia, inner suburban vote sink, I'm all for it!  Gerlach, Meehan, and Fitzpatrick have some votes to explain as their districts are drawn now and with a combined CD 2/13, they'll have an even tougher audience to explain their support of the Ryan budget for starters.  If the GOP did that, ok you'll have Fattah or Schwartz having to back out to avoid a Dem party confrontation with the NAACP, which could be messy.  Overall I'd say let 'em have at it!  We could get a sweep of Southeastern PA once again and hopefully if the GOP thinks they can add Dem areas to Pitts' district, the 16th, I'd say let that hard rightie explain some of his votes AND antics to a more moderate 16th district.    

[Keystone Phil]

Hey, if the GOP wants to forego a Democratic Northeast Philadelphia, inner suburban vote sink, I'm all for it!  Gerlach, Meehan, and Fitzpatrick have some votes to explain as their districts are drawn now and with a combined CD 2/13, they'll have an even tougher audience to explain their support of the Ryan budget for starters.  If the GOP did that, ok you'll have Fattah or Schwartz having to back out to avoid a Dem party confrontation with the NAACP, which could be messy.  Overall I'd say let 'em have at it!  We could get a sweep of Southeastern PA once again and hopefully if the GOP thinks they can add Dem areas to Pitts' district, the 16th, I'd say let that hard rightie explain some of his votes AND antics to a more moderate 16th district.    

Sweep of SE PA again? You've never swept it before. Gerlach won all of those elections, remember?

Take the excessively partisan talk elsewhere. This thread has been pretty good with focusing on the potential make up of the future map/sharing ideas for maps.

[TeePee4Prez]

Hey, if the GOP wants to forego a Democratic Northeast Philadelphia, inner suburban vote sink, I'm all for it!  Gerlach, Meehan, and Fitzpatrick have some votes to explain as their districts are drawn now and with a combined CD 2/13, they'll have an even tougher audience to explain their support of the Ryan budget for starters.  If the GOP did that, ok you'll have Fattah or Schwartz having to back out to avoid a Dem party confrontation with the NAACP, which could be messy.  Overall I'd say let 'em have at it!  We could get a sweep of Southeastern PA once again and hopefully if the GOP thinks they can add Dem areas to Pitts' district, the 16th, I'd say let that hard rightie explain some of his votes AND antics to a more moderate 16th district.    

Sweep of SE PA again? You've never swept it before. Gerlach won all of those elections, remember?

Take the excessively partisan talk elsewhere. This thread has been pretty good with focusing on the potential make up of the future map/sharing ideas for maps.

Map drawing is a partisan game.  You have to admit it.

[Keystone Phil]

Hey, if the GOP wants to forego a Democratic Northeast Philadelphia, inner suburban vote sink, I'm all for it!  Gerlach, Meehan, and Fitzpatrick have some votes to explain as their districts are drawn now and with a combined CD 2/13, they'll have an even tougher audience to explain their support of the Ryan budget for starters.  If the GOP did that, ok you'll have Fattah or Schwartz having to back out to avoid a Dem party confrontation with the NAACP, which could be messy.  Overall I'd say let 'em have at it!  We could get a sweep of Southeastern PA once again and hopefully if the GOP thinks they can add Dem areas to Pitts' district, the 16th, I'd say let that hard rightie explain some of his votes AND antics to a more moderate 16th district.    

Sweep of SE PA again? You've never swept it before. Gerlach won all of those elections, remember?

Take the excessively partisan talk elsewhere. This thread has been pretty good with focusing on the potential make up of the future map/sharing ideas for maps.

Map drawing is a partisan game.  You have to admit it.

Sure it is (though it shouldn't be) but you're taking it to the cheerleading point. Talk about the substance of the maps and not the "Far rightie is going down, baby! I'm fine with that!" nonsense.

[TeePee4Prez]

I agree it shouldn't be a partisan game either.  Iowa has the right idea.  Computer spits it out by population.  The lines are consistent by county.  GAME ON!  PA is too much about protecting old, powerful incumbents on both sides and I'll even mention the late Jack Murtha here.