US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[minionofmidas]

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Thank you Mrs Earll!

[Brittain33]

NePa Fajita!

[Verily]

That's doesn't look like it works out with keeping Lancaster and York Counties whole and separate. (Not that that should be a high priority, IMO, but it does seem to be one).

Also, WTF.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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Thank you Mrs Earll!

Well she represents an >60% Obama district, so she has to walk a fine line...

[Keystone Phil]

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Thank you Mrs Earll!

Well she represents an >60% Obama district, so she has to walk a fine line...

Earll is popular. She wouldn't get the boot if she didn't put up an objection to this plan. Plus, there's word that she's retiring anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Oh well then that seat is gone.

[Keystone Phil]

Oh well then that seat is gone.

Oh darn. I guess we'll just have to settle for a 29-21 majority!

By the way, don't comment unless you understand the district, the players, the candidates/field team for each side, etc. It doesn't all boil down to "Oh, that area went for Obama in a landslide? Ok, the Dems pick that one up."

[Torie]

NePa Fajita!

Ah, they did split Schuylkill County. Good job boys. PA-10 seems short 90,000 folks, nowhere to be found, since other than in Cumberland, the perimeter of the 3 CD's is just county lines (maybe PA-10 goes farther west and the map is just in error on that), but here are the partisan data.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

What's so terrible with a compact map which more accurately represents counties and regions, and doesn't split major cities in between large GOP strongholds?

Oh yeah, that would show off PA's Democratic lean. Let's not be fair.

[jimrtex]

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Thank you Mrs Earll!

If you split Erie, wouldn't that result in one district heading east to the Poconos and the other south to Pittsburgh?

[dpmapper]

NePa Fajita!

Ah, they did split Schuylkill County. Good job boys. PA-10 seems short 90,000 folks, nowhere to be found, since other than in Cumberland, the perimeter of the 3 CD's is just county lines (maybe PA-10 goes farther west and the map is just in error on that), but here are the partisan data

I suspect that the map is just a reporter's sketch based on the snippets that have leaked out; I wouldn't treat it as gospel in all of its details.  For instance, if there are pieces of Schuylkill that you break off, aren't the southeast and southwest corners the most lucrative from the GOP point of view? 

You'd also want to put Clinton County in with Marino to soak up some blue dogs in Lock Haven, assuming Thompson does go out to Erie and you don't split up his home county in the process. 

[Torie]

Schuylkill is mostly lucrative for the GOP except for the north central portion.




The county is nicely suited for a trichop, which is exactly what I did in my map. Heck, it could even be a quad chop, as neighboring CD's bite off Pubbie portions from all directions, leaving Holden in his little Dem lair all by himself.

[muon2]

NePa Fajita!

Ah, they did split Schuylkill County. Good job boys. PA-10 seems short 90,000 folks, nowhere to be found, since other than in Cumberland, the perimeter of the 3 CD's is just county lines (maybe PA-10 goes farther west and the map is just in error on that), but here are the partisan data.

If I assume that whole counties are correct, but splits are inaccurate in the press sketch, then here's how I make the districts whole:

Take enough of Cumberland into 11 to bring the three districts up to the correct total (all but the SE corner).

Put more of Monroe and a lot more of Northumberland into 10.

Put the north central part of Schuylkill into 17 and all or almost all of Carbon in 17, too.

I get three districts with 10 @ 54.7% McCain, 11 @ 52.8% McCain, 17 @ 56.1% Obama.

[Torie]

What's so terrible with a compact map which more accurately represents counties and regions, and doesn't split major cities in between large GOP strongholds?

Oh yeah, that would show off PA's Democratic lean. Let's not be fair.

Like this?  

[Keystone Phil]

That's a nice, compact Southeast map, Torie. Thanks for keeping me in the 13th! See that little dot where the 1st and the 8th meet the 13th? That's me (for the time being, at least). 

[Torie]

You live on the Bucks County border now Phil?  I know your precinct (maybe previous precinct now), remember?  

You know all this gerrymandering business does not get the GOP a lot surprisingly. In this meticulously non partisan map, the GOP will drop PA-07 and PA-11 (probably), but Dent will easily hold PA-15 with a Dem PVI of about 2.5%, Holden's PA-17 CD has a GOP PVI of about 4%, so that is a pickup someday probably, and Atmire's PA-04 goes up about 30 basis points in its GOP PVI.  Gerlach in PA-06 has a Dem PVI of about 3%, which he would hold. PA-08 is dead even in its PVI.

[Verily]

Some parts of your map are not that clever, Torie. There's no excuse but gerrymandering for putting Cheltenham in PA-02, for example, as to put more of Philly in PA-02, more of NE Philly in PA-01 and Cheltenham in PA-13 (1) increases the black % in PA-02 (2) avoids an unnecessary county split and (3) looks visually neater.

[Torie]

Some parts of your map are not that clever, Torie. There's no excuse but gerrymandering for putting Cheltenham in PA-02, for example, as to put more of Philly in PA-02, more of NE Philly in PA-01 and Cheltenham in PA-13 (1) increases the black % in PA-02 (2) avoids an unnecessary county split and (3) looks visually neater.

I don't see any reason for Darby and Tinicum to be in PA-01 instead of more of NE Philly, either; not sure how that affects county-splitting, though.

Yes, but that is the existing line, and Cheltenham is heavily black, and I think a court would leave it as is. If it is a gerrymander, it serves no partisan purpose whatsoever, so it would be an odd one. PA-02 is 58.5% black VAP by the way, which is plenty.  Your suggestion would actually reduce its black percentage in all probability. Darby and Tinicum are in PA-07.  PA-01 has none of Delaware County now except for the airport precinct. The rest of it is entirely in the city of Philly.

[Keystone Phil]

You live on the Bucks County border now Phil?  I know your precinct (maybe previous precinct now), remember?  

Now? I've always been on the border. My street is the last in the city. I look out at Bucks county from my front step.

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I know. If anything, it has been proven that it backfires.

[Sbane]

Here's my fair map. I was going for two black districts in Philly, unlike in Torie's map. The 8th picks up northeast Philly instead of upper Montgomery like Torie did. Putting NE Philly with lower Bucks makes sense to me. And putting upper Montco with Chester does as well, as I did in the 6th. The 17th picks up the Harrisburg area mostly and Holden's part of Schuykill.

Here are the Obama numbers for a few districts. Torie, can you post the numbers from your map as well?

8th- 53.7-45.2 Obama
6th- 54.7-44.2 Obama
7th- 59.9-39.2 Obama
15th- 55.7-42.9 Obama
11th- 56.5-42.3 Obama
13th- 61.3-37.9 Obama
17th- 52.9-46 Mccain
14th- 64-35 Obama
4th- 51.4-47.7 Mccain
3rd- 50.3-48.4 Obama

[Verily]

Some parts of your map are not that clever, Torie. There's no excuse but gerrymandering for putting Cheltenham in PA-02, for example, as to put more of Philly in PA-02, more of NE Philly in PA-01 and Cheltenham in PA-13 (1) increases the black % in PA-02 (2) avoids an unnecessary county split and (3) looks visually neater.

I don't see any reason for Darby and Tinicum to be in PA-01 instead of more of NE Philly, either; not sure how that affects county-splitting, though.

Yes, but that is the existing line, and Cheltenham is heavily black, and I think a court would leave it as is. If it is a gerrymander, it serves no partisan purpose whatsoever, so it would be an odd one. PA-02 is 58.5% black VAP by the way, which is plenty.  Your suggestion would actually reduce its black percentage in all probability. Darby and Tinicum are in PA-07.  PA-01 has none of Delaware County now except for the airport precinct. The rest of it is entirely in the city of Philly.

Cheltenham is not "heavily black". It's 57% white and 31% black. There are enormous swaths of heavily black precincts included in PA-01 on your map in SW Philly (talking 70-80%), plus some 40-60% black precincts in central-north Philly (not sure what that area is called). Sure, PA-02 is already majority black, but there's just no excuse at all for the county split but partisan motivations. (You're right on Darby/Tinicum; the airport precinct, which is in Tinicum, confused me--though it should probably be removed from PA-01 as well.)

[Keystone Phil]

I think what might confuse people about Cheltenham is that it borders a heavily black area of Philly.

[muon2]

I don't know if this was noticed before, but the seven SE counties are almost exactly the size of 7 CDs. In fact those seven counties exceed 7/18 of the state's population by only 67 persons. That sort of minimal deviation to preserve the county boundaries would be easily defensible in court. That seems like a natural place to start the design of a fair map.

Using the precincts in DRA I divided the area up to minimize county splits. Within a split county no two districts split more than one township or Philly ward between them. The maximum deviation is kept under 100 for any of these districts. CD 1 is now the black majority district with 51.0% BVAP and is entirely within Philly.

[Torie]

Great map Muon2.

[minionofmidas]

I don't know if this was noticed before, but the seven SE counties are almost exactly the size of 7 CDs.

My (2nd and 3rd) maps on page 15 use that.