US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The GOP has another reason to want to keep Bucks together: Fitzpatrick has enough of a personal vote to thereotically neutralize Lower Bucks, if it was put into PA-13 it'd also be neutralized yes, but this would free some other territory in PA-13 that the GOP would probably prefer going there. PA-13 alone isn't enough to take in all the Democratic parts of Montco so they'd get shed elsewhere.

And that makes me wonder why they'd want to remove the Philly portion of PA-08, it only voted for Obama by a point (50-49) and really isn't the type of area you'd want to put into a Dem pack seat. Similarly moving into the Lehigh Valley means taking away some of the more conservative parts of PA-15, not sure what they're planning but it looks like another potential dummymander if all of this is true. The GOP clearly didn't know what they were doing in some areas in 2002 as evidenced by the fact that Montco sliver was put into PA-08 at all (seriously, what the hell is the point of that?)

[TeePee4Prez]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

Do we have maps out?

They haven't been uploaded to the website yet. I was texted a picture of just the Northeast Philly portion. I doubt you guys are interested in that.  

Yep.  I can see why you're not happy.  John Taylor will be the only GOP Rep in Philly and even he's vulnerable.  Didn't crack 60% last time.  And I don't think his district will be any more Pubbie in the future.  I guess the Dems wanted to protect McGeehan.  I would have drawn Taylor's seat up the river if I were the GOP.  

This is all good for the GOP at the state level, but similar adjustments to the Congressional map could benefit Dems.

Is John Taylor's district the only McCain district in Philly or DelCo?

Also, Torie, can you post our octopus Pittsburgh map, with the city labels?

John Taylor's district is heavily Democratic, pro-union, and very urban looking albeit has some heavily ethnic white areas such as Port Richmond and Bridesburg which are his base.  He won in 1984 on Reagan's coattails and has established himself quite well despite a GOP Pres candidate not winning there since 1984.  The district (PA-177) has a lot of Polish Catholics that liked Reagan's tough stances on Communism despite being throughly Democratic and unionized.  He also defeated a weak Dem incumbent with alcohol problems that year along with the coattails.  PA 177 voted in the low 60s for Obama IIRC and has a few minority neighborhoods.  Up until recently, Taylor was seen as untouchable.  Similar to Dan Kapanke in Wisconsin- he's personally popular, but if he made a vote like that, he'd be toast.

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

Do we have maps out?

They haven't been uploaded to the website yet. I was texted a picture of just the Northeast Philly portion. I doubt you guys are interested in that.  

Yep.  I can see why you're not happy.  John Taylor will be the only GOP Rep in Philly and even he's vulnerable.  Didn't crack 60% last time.  And I don't think his district will be any more Pubbie in the future.  I guess the Dems wanted to protect McGeehan.  I would have drawn Taylor's seat up the river if I were the GOP.  

This is all good for the GOP at the state level, but similar adjustments to the Congressional map could benefit Dems.

Is John Taylor's district the only McCain district in Philly or DelCo?

Also, Torie, can you post our octopus Pittsburgh map, with the city labels?

John Taylor's district is heavily Democratic, pro-union, and very urban looking albeit has some heavily ethnic white areas such as Port Richmond and Bridesburg which are his base.  He won in 1984 on Reagan's coattails and has established himself quite well despite a GOP Pres candidate not winning there since 1984.  The district (PA-177) has a lot of Polish Catholics that liked Reagan's tough stances on Communism despite being throughly Democratic and unionized.  He also defeated a weak Dem incumbent with alcohol problems that year along with the coattails.  PA 177 voted in the low 60s for Obama IIRC and has a few minority neighborhoods.  Up until recently, Taylor was seen as untouchable.  Similar to Dan Kapanke in Wisconsin- he's personally popular, but if he made a vote like that, he'd be toast.

Pretty spot on. What Flyers didn't really touch on: the rapidly changing demographics of the district. It's very Hispanic now and these new residents have no connection to Taylor. That's what is giving Taylor trouble.

And Obama definitely hit 60% in the district despite losing many white ethnic precincts in Bridesburg, Fishtown and Port Richmond.

[Keystone Phil]

Getting to one of Phil's points...a big player (and pretty ancient too) in Bucks Republican Politics, Harry Fawkes lives in some of the most Democratic territory of Bucks...frankly I'm surprised he hasn't moved North by now...but I guess olds get so attached to home.

Additionally, Fitzpatrick does relatively well in Lower Bucks (he's from there)...sure he won't carry most areas (but its not the end of the world there), and I doubt the GOP can really cleave enough of Lower Bucks (while leaving Fitz in 8  )...unless they use your map!

Bingo.

[Miles]

'Just so we have a map posted:

[krazen1211]

New reports that the GOP is gunning for Schwartz again by putting her in a heavily black district and putting Brady in a (mostly) white district.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-schwartz-v-fattah/29153/

Makes sense as Schwartz is a dynamite fundraiser and has some statewide appeal.

[Torie]

New reports that the GOP is gunning for Schwartz again by putting her in a heavily black district and putting Brady in a (mostly) white district.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-schwartz-v-fattah/29153/

Makes sense as Schwartz is a dynamite fundraiser and has some statewide appeal.

Yes, but as the article says, the other CD will be Dem, and Schwartz will probably just move there. There need to be 3, not 2, Dem sink CD's in the Philly area, if all the Pubbie incumbents are to be made reasonably safe, and even then it is a close call. So they are just toying with her by excising  heavily Jewish Abbington from her CD and dumping it into the black Fatah CD is all. Kind of spiteful really.

[TeePee4Prez]

New reports that the GOP is gunning for Schwartz again by putting her in a heavily black district and putting Brady in a (mostly) white district.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-schwartz-v-fattah/29153/

Makes sense as Schwartz is a dynamite fundraiser and has some statewide appeal.

Yes, but as the article says, the other CD will be Dem, and Schwartz will probably just move there. There need to be 3, not 2, Dem sink CD's in the Philly area, if all the Pubbie incumbents are to be made reasonably safe, and even then it is a close call. So they are just toying with her by excising  heavily Jewish Abbington from her CD and dumping it into the black Fatah CD is all. Kind of spiteful really.

I think Schwartz will be representing Conshohocken, Lower Merion, and possibly King of Prussia when all is said and done to protect Gerlach and Meehan.  Lumping her with Fattah- part of me says bring it on!  All 3 GOP reps in the Philly area will now have tougher races.

[krazen1211]

New reports that the GOP is gunning for Schwartz again by putting her in a heavily black district and putting Brady in a (mostly) white district.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-schwartz-v-fattah/29153/

Makes sense as Schwartz is a dynamite fundraiser and has some statewide appeal.

Yes, but as the article says, the other CD will be Dem, and Schwartz will probably just move there. There need to be 3, not 2, Dem sink CD's in the Philly area, if all the Pubbie incumbents are to be made reasonably safe, and even then it is a close call. So they are just toying with her by excising  heavily Jewish Abbington from her CD and dumping it into the black Fatah CD is all. Kind of spiteful really.

The thought process is likely that putting Schwartz in a 40% black district running from Lower Merion to Darby/Chester will lead to her being exposed to a primary.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That would make Schwartz as doomed as Steve Cohen.

[Torie]

The GOP has another reason to want to keep Bucks together: Fitzpatrick has enough of a personal vote to thereotically neutralize Lower Bucks, if it was put into PA-13 it'd also be neutralized yes, but this would free some other territory in PA-13 that the GOP would probably prefer going there. PA-13 alone isn't enough to take in all the Democratic parts of Montco so they'd get shed elsewhere.

And that makes me wonder why they'd want to remove the Philly portion of PA-08, it only voted for Obama by a point (50-49) and really isn't the type of area you'd want to put into a Dem pack seat. Similarly moving into the Lehigh Valley means taking away some of the more conservative parts of PA-15, not sure what they're planning but it looks like another potential dummymander if all of this is true. The GOP clearly didn't know what they were doing in some areas in 2002 as evidenced by the fact that Montco sliver was put into PA-08 at all (seriously, what the hell is the point of that?)

Excellent analysis BRTD, particularly if Gerlach is not going to hang around in the House for another decade. The only thing is that only by appending to PA-08 the most GOP parts of Montco, or some of that and about just 5 or 6 selected precincts in Philly, can a PA-08 which takes in all of Bucks be moved to an even PVI.  Just doing Philly as is will move PA-08 to about a +1% Dem PVI.

The existing Montco sliver in PA-08 is heavily Dem, and was put there, to try to make PA-13 within reach of the Pubbies. Yes, it was a dummymander.

[lowtech redneck]

Here's an enlightening article for someone (i.e. myself) who knew next to nothing about Pennsylvanian politics: can anybody improve on his efforts?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/11/03/1032742/-Drawing-Pennsylvania-Going-After-Schwartz-in-SEPA?via=blog_2

[Keystone Phil]

New reports that the GOP is gunning for Schwartz again by putting her in a heavily black district and putting Brady in a (mostly) white district.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-schwartz-v-fattah/29153/

Makes sense as Schwartz is a dynamite fundraiser and has some statewide appeal.

She has statewide ambition, not real statewide appeal.

Anyway, this would be funny to watch but it isn't going to happen.

Here's an enlightening article for someone (i.e. myself) who knew next to nothing about Pennsylvanian politics: can anybody improve on his efforts?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2011/11/03/1032742/-Drawing-Pennsylvania-Going-After-Schwartz-in-SEPA?via=blog_2

The commentary looks good but I don't understand how his rendition of the 1st isn't way overpopulated. I guess the numbers on the right don't lie though. Brady would die for that district. I don't think he, even in his wildest dreams, expects all of Northeast Philly.

As for PA 8, I think Torie should read the author's comments...

"In Pennsylvania redistricting, Bucks County is never, ever split. People from Bucks have a shared identity, and it seems like they hate the idea of being split."

[Torie]

I have already read it Phil.

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm looking at these maps and thinking.. Sure, go after Schwartz.  Thing is, the rest of SEPA Republicans would still be vulnerable in a Dem wave.  Yeah... I've heard about the personal popularity of Fitzpatrick and Meehan blah blah blah.  But people said that about Fitz and Weldon in 2006 (even with his scandal).  I think Weldon would have lose even without the scandal.  Simple fact, the districts are moving D.  In this scenario, Brady's district is weakened considerably on paper, but anyone who knows local politics can figure with NE Philly firmly in his district, he'll have no problems and gets even more protection in the primaries with less likelihood of an African American or Hispanic challenger.  And I've said it before- PA 16 (or 18 in the article) has rapidly changing Dem areas.  Pitts is a cook and if anything I'd be looking to protect him and take him out of Reading if I were the GOP.

[jimrtex]

Pitts is a cook and if anything I'd be looking to protect him and take him out of Reading if I were the GOP.

What's wrong with cooks?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Pitts is a cook and if anything I'd be looking to protect him and take him out of Reading if I were the GOP.

What's wrong with cooks?

Crook, perhaps?

[TeePee4Prez]

Pitts is a cook and if anything I'd be looking to protect him and take him out of Reading if I were the GOP.

What's wrong with cooks?

I meant he's a RW whackjob in a now marginal GOP district.

[BigSkyBob]

Pitts is a cook and if anything I'd be looking to protect him and take him out of Reading if I were the GOP.

What's wrong with cooks?

I meant he's a RW whackjob in a now marginal GOP district.

Whether, or not, he is "RW," and whether, or not, he is a "whackjob" is completely independent of whether, or not, he is a "cook" or a "crook."  There are "crooks" that are "RW," crooks that are "moderates" and crooks that are "LW." Implying that politicians are corrupt merely because they disagree with your politics is totally unacceptable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think he intended to write 'cock', actually.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

He probably wanted to say "kook" for crazy.

Cock also would work for those militantly anti whoever we are discussing and with no problems using such language.

There are those who do think that everyone that disagrees with them is a "crook". I have seen various liberals do so with conservatives on here.

Cook might be a Freudian slip, perhaps he was extremely hungry when he made the post.


If they are going to mess with Schwartz, they should do so without harming the Republican held districts. Since there isn't much that realistically can be done to take her out, such a cautious approach should be followed. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose we can't entirely rule out the possibility that he intended to speak of country matters.

[jimrtex]

Pitts is a cook and if anything I'd be looking to protect him and take him out of Reading if I were the GOP.

What's wrong with cooks?

I meant he's a RW whackjob in a now marginal GOP district.

I remember eating at a Japanese steakhouse in Huntsville, Alabama, where the chef cooks at your table, and is supposed to put on a show juggling cleavers and knives, and whacking the meat with elan.   The dinner was fine, but as we were leaving, the manager profusely apologized, explaining that the chef had just been promoted from the branch in Anniston, and wasn't ready for the move up.

So if you remove this cook from Reading, where does he go?  Pottsville?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Ugh, I'm represented by that ass Pitts. He's basically a single-issue anti-woman Congressman.

[BigSkyBob]

Ugh, I'm represented by that ass Pitts. He's basically a single-issue anti-woman Congressman.

In general, "He's basically a single-issue ..issue candidate," are code words for, "He disagrees with me on some issue, and he takes that position more seriously than I would like."