US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

Who controlled PA's redistricting in 2000? Did either party have a trifecta or was it divided?

The Pubs controlled it. They didn't do a very good job. They screwed up PA-13 and PA-17 - for starters.

Yes, the gerrymandering by the then Majority leader/former Speaker (2003-2007)/now former State Representative on his way to prison really backfired.

Speaking of the guy above, he drew himself a district that was a plurality Republican after winning re-election in 2000 by only 80-something votes and it's up for debate as to whether or not he really won. In 2002, he won re-election with 82% after one of the most interesting state legislative gerrymanders in the state. In 2010, however, with his legal troubles catching up with him, he became the only incumbent Republican to be defeated in Pennsylvania. He lost 54% to 46%.

He's a former Representative from Philly and I'll just say this as mildly as possible: I'm not a fan. 

[jimrtex]

Who controlled PA's redistricting in 2000? Did either party have a trifecta or was it divided?

Vieth v Jubelirer was a redistricting case from Pennsylvania, in which 4 justices said that political gerrymandering was not justiciable because there was no standard that could be applied; Justice Kennedy said that it didn't apply to that particular case, but there must somehow somewhere be a case where it applies; and 4 justices said that it might apply.

An earlier plan had been found by a lower court to be a political gerrymander because in their haste to add strange fingers, the legislature had drawn slightly unequal districts (a bizarre conclusion that have a handful difference would reveal a partisan motive).  The legislature passed a remedial plan shifting a few voters, and this was upheld.

[krazen1211]

Joe Pitts is really stinking up PA Redistricting. He has to give up the Chester County portion of his district but is crying about it.

[Verily]

Joe Pitts is really stinking up PA Redistricting. He has to give up the Chester County portion of his district but is crying about it.

He lives there.

[Keystone Phil]

Our legislative district maps are coming out today at noon if anyone cares. 

I'm not exactly thrilled since I already know how my area of the city is going to be drawn. The seat I'm currently in is being eliminated and I don't like the replacement. 

[krazen1211]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

And my current district (represented by my Republican boss who is running for another office, by the way) is gone. Oh well. A third of the district (including the area where I live) will be absorbed by a more Democratic district but at least its the Republican area of the current district. The new district will be somewhat competitive.

My friend is at the hearing and just sent me the map. I didn't think the districts could possibly get more gerrymandered than they were last time but they did.

[Miles]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

Do we have maps out?

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

Do we have maps out?

They haven't been uploaded to the website yet. I was texted a picture of just the Northeast Philly portion. I doubt you guys are interested in that. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

Do we have maps out?

They haven't been uploaded to the website yet. I was texted a picture of just the Northeast Philly portion. I doubt you guys are interested in that. 

Yep.  I can see why you're not happy.  John Taylor will be the only GOP Rep in Philly and even he's vulnerable.  Didn't crack 60% last time.  And I don't think his district will be any more Pubbie in the future.  I guess the Dems wanted to protect McGeehan.  I would have drawn Taylor's seat up the river if I were the GOP. 

[Keystone Phil]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

Do we have maps out?

They haven't been uploaded to the website yet. I was texted a picture of just the Northeast Philly portion. I doubt you guys are interested in that. 

Yep.  I can see why you're not happy.  John Taylor will be the only GOP Rep in Philly and even he's vulnerable.  Didn't crack 60% last time.  And I don't think his district will be any more Pubbie in the future.  I guess the Dems wanted to protect McGeehan.  I would have drawn Taylor's seat up the river if I were the GOP. 

Honestly, my disgust is more because of the division of neighborhoods. My Ward, for example, has three State Representatives now. There's no need for that. Mark Cohen takes parts of my Ward. Come on. The worst part is that Cohen and Sabatina only take a few divisions so it isn't like they came in to take a lot of voters. There's no reason for them to take those random divisions. It confuses neighbors.

As for the Philly Republicans, Murt has more of Philly now. He's technically a Philly State Representative already; this only strengthens it. Of course, the district is still overwhelmingly Montco. Taylor is certainly vulnerable because of the rapidly changing demographics of most of the district.

The GOP's logic was to give up on Philly and that's just stupid. They got seats in more conservative areas but not competing here is very unwise. It hurts us in so many other ways. They weren't even looking out for Taylor. They know that seat will be gone whenever he decides to go. Hell, he could even lose.

As for the Dems, they weren't looking to protect McGeehan any more than they were looking to protect any of their other guys. Look at where McGeehan and Cohen went. Look at the neighborhoods. I think you can figure out why they wanted to go there and the GOP leadership gave it to them because Philly isn't a priority to them.

I won't bet against McGeehan but he has to be careful. 40% of the district is new for him and he has some pretty Republican areas now around me. This won't be as safe as his current district from a partisan standpoint but it's safer for him for other reasons...

[Keystone Phil]

Word from an inside source is that I'm staying in PA 13! I never thought I'd see the day when I'd celebrate that but when you consider the most likely alternatives...

Also, none of Northeast Philly will be in PA 8 this time.

[TeePee4Prez]

Word from an inside source is that I'm staying in PA 13! I never thought I'd see the day when I'd celebrate that but when you consider the most likely alternatives...

Also, none of Northeast Philly will be in PA 8 this time.

Will it just be Bucks?  I also doubt the Montco strip will be around as well.  My guess is they'll take Bryn Athyn which is very conservative if they have to take something from Montco.  I also thought the GOP would try a strip roughly around Pine Road to include Fox Chase in PA 8. 

[Keystone Phil]

Word from an inside source is that I'm staying in PA 13! I never thought I'd see the day when I'd celebrate that but when you consider the most likely alternatives...

Also, none of Northeast Philly will be in PA 8 this time.

Will it just be Bucks?  I also doubt the Montco strip will be around as well.  My guess is they'll take Bryn Athyn which is very conservative if they have to take something from Montco.  I also thought the GOP would try a strip roughly around Pine Road to include Fox Chase in PA 8. 

No word on whether it will just be Bucks but I'd be willing to bet that that's the case. The Montco strip almost definitely won't be there since that area is worse for Fitz/the GOP than the Northeast.

That Fox Chase proposal would be smart but I think they'd rather avoid Philly all together. I wish that wasn't the case but it is what it is.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You definitely can't fit all of PA-08 in just Bucks. If you exclude anywhere in Philly and Montco you only can go into the Lehigh Valley which I don't think Dent would like. But you could use a different part of Montco like this:

[Keystone Phil]

you only can go into the Lehigh Valley which I don't think Dent would like.]

I don't know the real inside politics of the matter but Dent might not have a choice. His seat isn't safe but he's certainly safer than Fitz so they might take from Dent to even it out. Dent could always move further west to take some more conservative areas anyway.

That being said, your map is more likely. Those areas of Montco are rural, very Republican friendly and would fit a Bucks county district well.

[Torie]

I still don't understand this fixation of keeping Bucks all in one CD. Whatever.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's best for Fitzpatrick. He won Bucks even in 2006.

[Torie]

It's best for Fitzpatrick. He won Bucks even in 2006.

OK, but it is just so convenient to put some of the heavily Dem lower Bucks precincts into PA-13.

[Keystone Phil]

It's best for Fitzpatrick. He won Bucks even in 2006.

OK, but it is just so convenient to put some of the heavily Dem lower Bucks precincts into PA-13.

Torie, I don't say this with hostility but I still don't understand why you can't grasp that satisfying certain political egos is standard. You're not naive. You have to know that there are certain insiders that have to be satisfied. And, for the record, I'm not defending it but I at least understand that it's done. It isn't just about what will make the district the safest bet for the GOP. If that was the case, yes, your analysis would be correct but it isn't just about that.

And one insider quirk that you have to keep in mind is their disliking for mixing districts with other counties. I know that many Montco politicos despise having districts overlap with Philly and it isn't just because the Philly areas are more Democratic.

[Torie]

Well, in general, the maps drawn this year, have not been driven by individual egos that much. But you know the local culture and I don't. If Bucks is split however, I will avoid tweaking you about it. Yes I will. When is the f'ing CD map going to come out, so that we can find out? 

[Keystone Phil]

Well, in general, the maps drawn this year, have not been driven by individual egos that much.

...not sure how you can say that. Are you aware of the PA redistricting?

 

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Not sure but I guess it will be out very soon since I got pretty confident word last night about where I'll be and how PA 8 will look.

[TeePee4Prez]

Well, in general, the maps drawn this year, have not been driven by individual egos that much.

...not sure how you can say that. Are you aware of the PA redistricting?

 

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Not sure but I guess it will be out very soon since I got pretty confident word last night about where I'll be and how PA 8 will look.

I had the same thoughts as Torie on this in a conversation with someone in the past.  Yeah, if the GOP wanted to pack the Dems and GOP into 2 strong districts between PA 8 and 13, they'd put NE Philly/Lower Bucks in a district along with some of the more liberal areas of eastern Montco in a seat and the more exurban areas into a safe GOP seat.  Some people outside of here don't know that egos won't let that happen.  I for one love the fact that you have a mildly competitive Dem leaning seat in PA 13 and a swing seat in PA 8.  I still think even with the BRTD map of PA 8, you could have a competitive seat albeit a GOP leaning seat. 

[bullmoose88]

It's best for Fitzpatrick. He won Bucks even in 2006.

OK, but it is just so convenient to put some of the heavily Dem lower Bucks precincts into PA-13.

Getting to one of Phil's points...a big player (and pretty ancient too) in Bucks Republican Politics, Harry Fawkes lives in some of the most Democratic territory of Bucks...frankly I'm surprised he hasn't moved North by now...but I guess olds get so attached to home.

Additionally, Fitzpatrick does relatively well in Lower Bucks (he's from there)...sure he won't carry most areas (but its not the end of the world there), and I doubt the GOP can really cleave enough of Lower Bucks (while leaving Fitz in 8  )...unless they use your map!

[nclib]

Looks like the GOP got its legislative maps. Dem districts in Western PA relocated to Republican Philadelphia suburbs.

Do we have maps out?

They haven't been uploaded to the website yet. I was texted a picture of just the Northeast Philly portion. I doubt you guys are interested in that. 

Yep.  I can see why you're not happy.  John Taylor will be the only GOP Rep in Philly and even he's vulnerable.  Didn't crack 60% last time.  And I don't think his district will be any more Pubbie in the future.  I guess the Dems wanted to protect McGeehan.  I would have drawn Taylor's seat up the river if I were the GOP. 

This is all good for the GOP at the state level, but similar adjustments to the Congressional map could benefit Dems.

Is John Taylor's district the only McCain district in Philly or DelCo?

Also, Torie, can you post our octopus Pittsburgh map, with the city labels?