US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[minionofmidas]

Lol, I just drew an 80% Black, 96% Obama district in Philly.

[Dgov]

Lol, I just drew an 80% Black, 96% Obama district in Philly.

Its even more pronounced in  Southern Chicago.  I got it up to 91% and 98.4% Respectively, with not a single precinct that voted less than 90% Obama. McCain literally got a whopping 5,272 votes there to Obama's 370,976

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

You guys are surprised? Drawing such districts on the legislative level happens all the time, a 98% Obama State Senate district in Maryland is easy to draw without looking the slightest bit gerrymandered.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

LD-24 in Prince George's County, Maryland, is possibly the most Democratic in the country: it gave 98% for Obama and 96% for O'Malley in 2010. Steele got 16% there in 2006, which makes me wonder if the oft-quoted "Steele got 25% of the black vote" from the exit poll is incorrect (the district is 89% black).

[Dgov]

You guys are surprised? Drawing such districts on the legislative level happens all the time, a 98% Obama State Senate district in Maryland is easy to draw without looking the slightest bit gerrymandered.

yes, but its rare to be able to do it to 700,000 person Congressional districts.

[minionofmidas]

I don't think you can get it over mid-70's Black in NYC, for example (and that only in Brooklyn).
Really though, I was just trying to see what a Black-pack in Philly would look like, since the current setup of the first and second districts is basically ridiculous. Either do a really heavily Black seat and a "White" seat (that is only 50% White, and about 20% each Black and Hispanic) by splitting the city (sans northeastern and northwestern edges) east-west - cleaning up the eastern edge of my maximum Blackpack only brought it down to 75% Black - or screw Bob Brady and do two 55% Black seats by splitting north-south.

[dpmapper]

OK, I've more or less completed my PA map now that the numbers have been added to DRA. 

Ground rules: Lancaster stays whole.  York stays whole.  Bucks stays whole.  Lehigh Valley stays whole.  I limited myself to adding an arm into only one county outside Allegheny for the Pittsburgh pack, and tried in general to not make things too ugly... at least, where they weren't before. 



Yellow in the NW, Kelly: 52.3-46.4 McCain, up from 49-49.  Erie city is still all in this district, but a lot of its suburbs are put into the next district.

Pink stretching across the north, Marino: 55.1-43.5 McCain.  Almost all new territory for Marino, which is probably good for him since he underperformed with his current ones.  Actually a smidge more Republican, too. 

Green in the middle, State College to Harrisburg area, Thompson, 54.0-44.8 McCain.  Again, almost all new territory.  I'd have preferred to switch Thompson and Marino, sending Marino down to Harrisburg and giving Thompson the Erie area plus the part of Cambria county, thus keeping Thompson paired with much of his current territory, but doing that required either shaving Thompson's district down to <51% McCain, or slicing State College from the rest of Centre County and giving it to Marino, which Thompson probably wouldn't like since he was Centre County GOP chair.  But if he's fine with those options then you can do that. 

Cyan, south central Altoona/Johnstown, Shuster/Crist: still the most GOP district in PA, at 57-41.7 McCain.  Takes the upper Monongahela valley towns as well.  Still much prettier than the current PA-12. 

Salmon, SW border, Murphy: 54.8-44.1 McCain.  Not much change in partisanship.

Light green, Pittsburgh, Doyle: 69-30 Obama. 

Purplish blue, east of Pittsburgh, Altmire: 57.0-42.0 McCain, up from 55-44 before.  He'll have to stay on his toes. 

Blue, NE PA including Wilkes-Barre for Barletta: 51.6-47.0 McCain, big change from 57-42 Obama. 

Green, Scranton-Pottsville-Reading for Holden: 60.3-38.6 Obama.  He'll be annoyed that Schuylkill County is split up, but there's really no sense in wasting all that strong GOP vote in the southern half. 

Orange, Lehigh Valley for Dent: not much can be done here; 55.0-43.6 Obama, as opposed to 56-43 previously.  I tried picking out the reddest parts of Schuylkill and Berks to add to the two core counties. 

Brown, York-Harrisburg for Platts: 53.5-45.4 McCain.  Down slightly from 56-43, but he should still be OK. 

Moving into SE PA:



Light blue, Lancaster for Pitts: 51.0-48.1 McCain.  Essentially no change, although Holden taking Reading allows Pitts to soak up more Dem towns in Chester County. 

Light tan, Lebanon-Berks-Chester counties for Gerlach: 50.1-48.8 McCain!  Given that Obama won Gerlach's current district by 58-41, this should be quite secure. 

Yellow, Bucks county: 52.8-46.1 Obama, down from 54-45 previously.  Again, not much can be done if Bucks is kept intact, but I did try to find the reddest parts of Montgomery County to append. 

Purple, Meehan: 51.0-48.1 Obama.  It was 56-43 before.  Sneaks all the way around MontCo and takes in some parts of NE Philly.... you could decide not to bother and it probably wouldn't change the figures much. 

Orange/Blue/Green: Schwartz, Fattah, Brady; 43.1% black plurality, 50.7% black majority, and 62% white, respectively.  All between 72-84% Obama. 

[Dgov]

You forgot the light blue district in South-Central PA, though I assume it's safe R taking in much of the current 12th to take out Critz.

Also, did you put Schwartz into a black-plurality district or am I reading it wrong?

[dpmapper]

You forgot the light blue district in South-Central PA, though I assume it's safe R taking in much of the current 12th to take out Critz.

It's there.  I called it cyan.  

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Yup, just being mischievous.  If it helps the map garner black Philly votes in the legislature, that's great.  If it creates a precedent for future maps, even better.  But obviously it's not essential.  

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's an article about the pending redistricting in Pennsylvania. Pitts is loath to give up any of his safe district to help out Gerlach or Meehan.

[Torie]

Here's an article about the pending redistricting in Pennsylvania. Pitts is loath to give up any of his safe district to help out Gerlach or Meehan.

I suspect that he will be forced to.  He should retire anyway.  What has he ever done to make a contribution to the public square?  Pitts strikes me as a back bencher beta in it for the lavish pension benefits.

[minionofmidas]

My attempt at fairmapping PA.



enhance



1 (South Philly) 55% Black, 30% White, 89.3% Obama. Brady, Fattah.
Went to research where Reps live... and I just understood why the current first is shaped as it is. Lol. Brady is from its northwestern earmuff.
2 (NC Philly) 42% Black, 31% White, 20% Hispanic, 85.1% Obama. open
There are two possible reasonable designs in Philly - north/south, both seats intended for a Black rep, or east/west, with the western seat quite heavily packed Black and the eastern seat intended for a White rep. Either way you want to keep the main Hispanic concentration united in the less Black seat. This is the former design, the arguments are finely balanced though and I don't really have a preference either way. Or didn't til I noticed where Brady lives. Now I guess I prefer the other map. It'd still draw Fattah and Brady both in the Blacker seat, but at ~70% Black there'd be no chance whatsoever of the map producing two White Congressmen. I'll post a map of what that'll look like tomorrow, probably also keep Cheltenham with Montgomery in that.
3 (Bucks) 86% White, 53.7% Obama. Fitzpatrick
Not changed much, remains very much winnable for both parties.
4 (Montgomery) 78% White, 57.6% Obama. Schwartz
Not much to see here.
5 (Delaware) 80% White, 10% Black, 58.4% Obama. Meehan
Probably gone for Republicans.
6 (Lancaster-Chester) 81% White, 50.8% Obama. Gerlach, Pitts
Interesting primary fight here... despite voting for Obama, should be safe congressionally.
7 (York) 88% White, 57.5% McCain. Platts
Not much to see here.
8 (Harrisburg) 82% White, 53.2% McCain. open
An overdue seat. Reliably Republican for now, though they can't like the pattern of demographic change here.
9 (Berks-Schuylkill) 83% White, 11% Hispanic, 51.7% Obama. Holden
This is Tim Holden, Schuylkill's Tim Holden. He'll be fine.
10 (Allentown-Bethlehem-Stroudsburg) 75% White, 15% Hispanic, 56.9% Obama. Dent
Should be gone for Republicans, but the stress is on "should". I'm not actually sure it would be.
11 (Wyoming Valley) 87% White, 56.3% Obama. Barletta
Two theories: Barletta's until the Democrats nominate an electable candidate, or Barletta's until the next major Democratic wave (and the Democrats nominate an electable candidate.) Exactly what I'd be saying about his current district too.
12 (Northeast) 93% White, 57.0% McCain. Marino
Not much to see here.
13 (Northwest-State College) 94% White, 55.0% McCain. Kelly, Thompson
Thompson's favored as he represents much more of the area at current.
14 (Altoona-Johnstown) 94% White, 59.8% McCain. Shuster, Critz
Safe for Shuster, evidently. Makes you wonder why Shuster is so interested in keeping Johnstown out of his district, it poses no danger to him.
15 (Erie-Beaver) 90% White, 51.4% Obama. open
Swing seat.
16 (Pittsburgh) 73% White, 20% Black, 65.5% Obama. Doyle
Not much to see here.
17 (Westmoreland-North Allegheny) 94% White, 57.9% McCain. Altmire
Altmire's a goner in this district, which is more of a successor to Johnson's current district than his own.
18 (Washington-Fayette-South Allegheny) 92% White, 50.4% McCain. Johnson
This seems tailormade for a Mark Critz/Jason Altmire type of Democrat, but Johnson's residence throws a spanner in the works.

[minionofmidas]

1st 75% Black, 15% White, 95.2% Obama
2nd 47% White, 22% Hispanic, 20% Black, 74.9% Obama
3rd 86% White, 53.7% Obama
4th 78% White, 59.9% Obama
5th 79% White, 11% Black, 58.6% Obama

[dpmapper]

Lancaster County will not be split, nor paired with York.  No way, no how.  I doubt it happens even if the Dems have total control. 

[minionofmidas]

Lancaster County will not be split, nor paired with York.  No way, no how.  I doubt it happens even if the Dems have total control. 

It's not a prediction.

I suppose though you're saying it mustn't be split... so, what alternative should I pursue here?

[dpmapper]

Lancaster County will not be split, nor paired with York.  No way, no how.  I doubt it happens even if the Dems have total control. 

It's not a prediction.

I suppose though you're saying it mustn't be split... so, what alternative should I pursue here?

A big clockwise rotation: red district takes the Main Line, retreats from upper MontCo.  Yellow takes more of Chester County.  Teal takes the rest of Lancaster.  Grey district goes further west (assuming you want to keep Cumberland + Dauphin whole and together, which makes sense), bronze eats into tan, tan into the light blue NE district.  From there... well, there's certainly Stroudsburg from the Lehigh Valley district, and then bits from the cyan district, which will probably have to move into outer MontCo/Chester Co.  Schuylkill and/or Berks will end up getting chopped up, but they don't have a particularly coherent identity, certainly not as coherent as Lancaster County does (very few counties do). 

[Torie]

The city of Lancaster is totally different in every way from the countryside.  They represent two totally different worlds. And the city is heavily Dem I might add.  So I don't consider the county "cohesive" myself. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've often wondered if the Democrats would ever try a district like this if they had total control:



58.1% Obama.

[minionofmidas]

Exchanging the grey district's share of Lancaster for Franklin and Fulton works almost perfectly, so I'll try it, dp.

[minionofmidas]

enhance



1 (West Philly) 76% Black, 13% White, 95.5% Obama. Brady, Fattah.
2 (East Philly) 49% White, 22% Hispanic, 19% Black, 74.5% Obama. open.
3 (Bucks) 86% White, 53.7% Obama. Fitzpatrick (virtually unchanged)
4 (Lower Montgomery - Main Line) 78% White, 62.7% Obama. Schwartz.
5 (Delaware - South Chester) 78% White, 11% Black, 56.7% Obama. Meehan, Pitts
They get to tear each other's limbs out in the primary, and then the winner is too weakened to win the general. Sounds like a plan to me.
6 (Lancaster - North Chester) 84% White, 52.5% McCain. Gerlach
Gets a safe seat, but a hell of a lot of new territory.
7 (York - Franklin) 88% White, 58.7% McCain. Platts
Supersafe.
8 (Harrisburg) 82% White, 53.3% McCain. open (minor changes)
9 (Berks - Upper Montgomery) 80% White, 11% Hispanic, 53.7% Obama
And Bucks has a twin! Ought to be... interesting.
10 (Lehigh Valley - Stroudsburg) 76% White, 15% Hispanic, 56.6% Obama. Dent (virtually unchanged)
11 (Wyoming Valley - Carbon) 88% White, 56.3% Obama. Barletta (minor changes)
12 (North East) 92% White, 55.1% McCain. Holden
Yeah well, lol. And probably a step too far for Holden to holden. That 12th is so ugly though that I will try to cut off its eastern earmuff next and add Carbon and Hazleton instead.
13 (North West) 96% White, 58.6% McCain. Kelly, Marino.
Glenn Thompson has been cut out of his safe seat and two other Republicans have been cut into it. Lol.
14 (Altoona - Johnstown - State College) 93% White, 55.0% McCain. Thompson, Shuster, Critz
Shuster is gonna be mad. Then he prevails anyways.
15 (Erie - Beaver) 90% White, 51.4% Obama. open (unchanged)
16 (Pittsburgh) 73% White, 20% Black, 65.5% Obama. Doyle (unchanged)
17 (Westmoreland - North Allegheny) 94% White, 57.9% McCain. Altmire (unchanged)
18 (Southwest) 92% White, 50.4% McCain. Murphy (unchanged)
Some part of my brain insists on calling Tim Murphy "Johnson".

[minionofmidas]

Went a little further than that...



7 (York - Franklin) 88% White, 58.9% McCain. Platts
8 (Harrisburg) 82% White, 53.4% McCain. open
10 (Lehigh Valley) 77% White, 14% Hispanic, 55.9% Obama. Dent
11 (Wyoming Valley - Stroudsburg) 85% White, 57.5% Obama. open.
Utterly safe for the lucky sod who wins the first Democratic primary.
12 (Schuylkill - Hazleton - Williamsport) 92% White, 55.8% McCain. Barletta, Holden.
Barletta wins.
13 (North) 97% White, 58.6% McCain. Marino
Just barely in, he lives in a township (Lycoming) that I'd rather have kept with Williamsport but I had to move something from cornflower back to tan, and this and its immediate western neighbor seemed the best candidates.
14 (Altoona - Johnstown - State College) 93% White, 54.4% McCain. Thompson, Shuster, Critz.
Come at me with more innocuous-sounding change proposals that somehow affect the center of the state, and eventually I'll come up with a map where Critz beats Shuster. (Actually... not happening unless it gets taken into Fayette next.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

[minionofmidas]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

This is in reference to what, exactly?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

This is in reference to what, exactly?

Lancaster County will not be split, nor paired with York.  No way, no how.  I doubt it happens even if the Dems have total control. 

[dpmapper]

I don't see why the Democrats would care about keeping Lancaster and York counties together since it just results in a lot of wasted Democratic votes in the cities proper. See my map above. The Democrats could easily put those votes to use.

For the same reason that the GOP isn't going to dump lower Bucks into Schwartz's district, or crack the Lehigh Valley.  To answer Torie's post, demographically Lancaster city and county are now different, but economically and historically they are very much one unit.