US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Torie]

This is basically my map! They did give away a Pubbie point or point and a half around Pittsburg, and maybe a total of 3-4 points away in the Philly area by canning my little erosities, but other than it's all mine baby.   However, that loss of points makes PA-07 a very marginal seat; it might be hard to hold. And PA-08 slips into the lean GOP but marginal zone. In this range, every Pubbie point gained is pure gold.

Well one other major and dumb difference, is they over-pubbied the south central zone by cutting out Harrisburg (which I chopped up between 3 CD's), by leaving it in OH-17 still, so that OH-17 was not able to suck up as many Dem precincts as it should in the Scranton and so forth zone. They also should have gobbled up the half of Schuylkill which is more than 60% McCain, rather than just wasting those Pubbies by leaving them in uber Dem OH-17 as redrawn. What a waste that was! Maybe they did that to try to help Holden survive a primary, and continue to be something of a blue dog. Who knows?

Oh, and they didn't do my rather brilliant cut out I think of South Philly. I need to get my map over to Wasserman ASAP.

[dpmapper]

I think that map is just Cook Political's prediction, not the real thing. 

But yeah, there are some clear inefficiencies, from the GOP point of view.  As mentioned before, I'd give Reading to Holden rather than Harrisburg, plus more of Monroe County.  And why not liberate some of the heavily McCain precincts in Schuylkill County, while you're at it? 

In the west, Doyle could be packed more, and CD5/12 are unnecessarily strong GOP.   

[Torie]

I think that map is just Cook Political's prediction, not the real thing. 

But yeah, there are some clear inefficiencies, from the GOP point of view.  As mentioned before, I'd give Reading to Holden rather than Harrisburg, plus more of Monroe County.  And why not liberate some of the heavily McCain precincts in Schuylkill County, while you're at it? 

In the west, Doyle could be packed more, and CD5/12 are unnecessarily strong GOP.   

Well, the article said the map came closer to the real thing than anything they saw so far, so I guess it could be that in fact, the real thing is my map (), because well, it is the most efficient thing. It just is. And for something this marginal, as I say squeezing out that last 5 Pubbie points  pays very high dividends at the margin. It would be a shame to lose them.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I suspect that the real thing, in more states than one, will be somewhere between Cook and Torie in terms of clean lines and aggressiveness.

[minionofmidas]

Are they going with Torie's map in West PA, and a lite version of it in Northeast PA, but not try anything funny around Philly? That would strike me as the most sensible thing they could do, really.

[krazen1211]

Are they going with Torie's map in West PA, and a lite version of it in Northeast PA, but not try anything funny around Philly? That would strike me as the most sensible thing they could do, really.

I personally think Torie's map is great in Western PA, myself, and a bit too ugly in the Philly suburbs.

Meehan will get a Delaware + Montco + some of Chester
Dent will get the Lehigh Valley
Fitz will get Bucks (hopefully they cut out Bensalem + Bristol here) + Montco
Gerlach will get Chester + Berks
Pitts will get Lancaster


I don't think we'll see the cross county ugliness there.

[krazen1211]

I think that map is just Cook Political's prediction, not the real thing.  

But yeah, there are some clear inefficiencies, from the GOP point of view.  As mentioned before, I'd give Reading to Holden rather than Harrisburg, plus more of Monroe County.  And why not liberate some of the heavily McCain precincts in Schuylkill County, while you're at it?  

In the west, Doyle could be packed more, and CD5/12 are unnecessarily strong GOP.  

You can give both Reading and Harrisburgh to Holden, as well as all of Lackawanna and Wilkes Barre.

Lebanon and that much of Carbon don't need to be in Holden's district.


I would call the sprawling CD-14 though that cuts across counties passive, rather than aggressive. The compact circle on Pittsburgh is simply a waste of a lot of Pubbies.

[minionofmidas]

I think that map is just Cook Political's prediction, not the real thing.  

But yeah, there are some clear inefficiencies, from the GOP point of view.  As mentioned before, I'd give Reading to Holden rather than Harrisburg, plus more of Monroe County.  And why not liberate some of the heavily McCain precincts in Schuylkill County, while you're at it?  

In the west, Doyle could be packed more, and CD5/12 are unnecessarily strong GOP.  

You can give both Reading and Harrisburgh to Holden, as well as all of Lackawanna and Wilkes Barre.

Lebanon and that much of Carbon don't need to be in Holden's district.


I would call the sprawling CD-14 though that cuts across counties passive, rather than aggressive. The compact circle on Pittsburgh is simply a waste of a lot of Pubbies.

It's just based on the historic situation. Abolishing two D seats in West PA seemed a bridge too far in 2000 (and almost certainly would have been), and that part has trended R more than the areas in what's now Altmire's district.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's also been a surprising degree of resilience at a 'local' level and that's the sort of thing you'd assume the people drawing the maps would be aware (and wary?) of.

[krazen1211]

I think that map is just Cook Political's prediction, not the real thing.  

But yeah, there are some clear inefficiencies, from the GOP point of view.  As mentioned before, I'd give Reading to Holden rather than Harrisburg, plus more of Monroe County.  And why not liberate some of the heavily McCain precincts in Schuylkill County, while you're at it?  

In the west, Doyle could be packed more, and CD5/12 are unnecessarily strong GOP.  

You can give both Reading and Harrisburgh to Holden, as well as all of Lackawanna and Wilkes Barre.

Lebanon and that much of Carbon don't need to be in Holden's district.


I would call the sprawling CD-14 though that cuts across counties passive, rather than aggressive. The compact circle on Pittsburgh is simply a waste of a lot of Pubbies.

It's just based on the historic situation. Abolishing two D seats in West PA seemed a bridge too far in 2000 (and almost certainly would have been), and that part has trended R more than the areas in what's now Altmire's district.

Isn't that exactly what happened?

http://www.mapcenter.org/region/gerrymaps.html

The 18th was merged into the 14th, and the 12th was merged into the 20th. Altmire's district was Republican at the time.

[minionofmidas]

Alright, abolishing three seemed a bridge too far. I know there were voices that one more might be doable.

I also totally misunderstood your original post, it seems.

[krazen1211]

Alright, abolishing three seemed a bridge too far. I know there were voices that one more might be doable.

I also totally misunderstood your original post, it seems.

Possibly. It's just really hard to create 2 Dem districts in SW-PA without splitting Pittsburgh.

You could do 1 district that covers Lawrence, Beaver, and some of Allegheny, and a 2nd district that covers the Dem areas of Fayette and Green and connects them with Johnstown. That would probably allow Murphy to grab more of his Westmoreland County areas that he has currently.

Shuster is fine no matter what you throw at him, but I am not quite confident in that CD-18 that I drew. The problem is that the Dem areas in Atlmire's current district and Critz's current district are really far dispersed.

Aggressiveness as I think they mean it is trying to create new pubbie districts, ie the old CD-13, while weakening your own. I guess that's a bit of what that CD-4 is I drew, but that's only because Westmoreland County happens to be where it is. Removing the south leg of CD-14 causes more problems than it solves, imo.

[Brittain33]

What I recall was that the 4th could have been made more Republican than it was, but Melissa Hart asked to keep it somewhat competitive, because it burnished her credentials for a future statewide run.

[dpmapper]

Given the news that they're going to give Holden a safer district, here's what I imagine the Philly area might look like, if they keep the Bucks district and the Lancaster district intact:



Pitts's district in light blue is freed from having to crack Reading, so it takes the bluest parts of Chester County.  He's still at 51-48 McCain.  Meehan, in pink, is at 51-48 Obama, down from 56% Obama before.  Gerlach's district in purple is incomplete - it depends on how much of the Reading area you give to Holden, but Gerlach will likely end up stretching to Lebanon and maybe even the western part of Schuylkill County - but will almost certainly be at least a 50-50 McCain district.  Can't do much with Fitzpatrick if Bucks stays together, but I did give him the most GOP section of Montgomery County to go with GOP areas of NE Philly.  The Obama % is down from 54% to 52.7% in his district. 

The Dem pack is a bit mischievous.  The green district is entirely within the Philly city limits but is 57% white.  Brady doesn't live in it, but he can move. 

Blue is 51% VAP black for Fattah.  Tan is 43% VAP black to 41% white - it would be amusing watching a primary challenge to Schwartz, and (in both of these districts) seeing affluent suburban liberals represented by inner-city blacks.  The additional benefit is that, if a black takes this seat, Dems might be a bit more constrained if and when they get control of redistricting back. 

[Bacon King]

Re: Pittsburg- is the octopus actually looking like it will be a reality?

If so, take that, snootily-toned WSJ article!  

[Sbane]

Given the news that they're going to give Holden a safer district, here's what I imagine the Philly area might look like, if they keep the Bucks district and the Lancaster district intact:



Pitts's district in light blue is freed from having to crack Reading, so it takes the bluest parts of Chester County.  He's still at 51-48 McCain.  Meehan, in pink, is at 51-48 Obama, down from 56% Obama before.  Gerlach's district in purple is incomplete - it depends on how much of the Reading area you give to Holden, but Gerlach will likely end up stretching to Lebanon and maybe even the western part of Schuylkill County - but will almost certainly be at least a 50-50 McCain district.  Can't do much with Fitzpatrick if Bucks stays together, but I did give him the most GOP section of Montgomery County to go with GOP areas of NE Philly.  The Obama % is down from 54% to 52.7% in his district. 

The Dem pack is a bit mischievous.  The green district is entirely within the Philly city limits but is 57% white.  Brady doesn't live in it, but he can move. 

Blue is 51% VAP black for Fattah.  Tan is 43% VAP black to 41% white - it would be amusing watching a primary challenge to Schwartz, and (in both of these districts) seeing affluent suburban liberals represented by inner-city blacks.  The additional benefit is that, if a black takes this seat, Dems might be a bit more constrained if and when they get control of redistricting back. 

Is this really necessary? You can still accomplish the Dem pack without having to get rid of 2 black districts. All you are doing is making your map vulnerable. Give Schwartz a white dem pack and everyone stays happy, and it's not as if this map helps the Republicans at all. You're just trying to be a douche to the Dems aren't you?

[dpmapper]

The 3 Dem districts I drew are basically the max Dem pack*, assuming Bucks and Lancaster are inviolate.  I just manipulated the boundaries between the three Dem districts for gits and shiggles.    

(And I'm not sure what you mean by "get rid of 2 black districts".  There is one majority black district and one plurality black district in this map, just like there is now.)  

In any case, that's not really the point; I was really just trying to see what Gerlach and Meehan could get assuming that the GOP doesn't have to worry about Reading any more.  Basically, the answer is that Meehan probably won't be able to get a McCain district unless you break up Lancaster County.  

*: barring Meehan's district making a raid into south Philly via a runway-width strip through PHL airport.

[Landslide Lyndon]

According to a post Wasserman tweeted last week, Republicans consider SE Pennsylvania a lost cause and don't want to go crazy with redistricting. They seem more interested to protect the rest of their delegation.

[Torie]

The 3 Dem districts I drew are basically the max Dem pack*, assuming Bucks and Lancaster are inviolate.  I just manipulated the boundaries between the three Dem districts for gits and shiggles.    

(And I'm not sure what you mean by "get rid of 2 black districts".  There is one majority black district and one plurality black district in this map, just like there is now.)  

In any case, that's not really the point; I was really just trying to see what Gerlach and Meehan could get assuming that the GOP doesn't have to worry about Reading any more.  Basically, the answer is that Meehan probably won't be able to get a McCain district unless you break up Lancaster County.  

*: barring Meehan's district making a raid into south Philly via a runway-width strip through PHL airport.

Your Dem pack left about 3-4 points on the table, which the Pubbies cannot afford to lose in the Philly area. Only my map, or something close to it, can get the job done.

[dpmapper]

How are you calculating that, Torie?  What additional Dem areas would you add to the pack, and in exchange for what (besides the handful of 50-50 precincts in south Philly)?  (Remember that I'm assuming Bucks stays whole.)

[Torie]

How are you calculating that, Torie?  What additional Dem areas would you add to the pack, and in exchange for what (besides the handful of 50-50 precincts in south Philly)?  (Remember that I'm assuming Bucks stays whole.)

Look at my map. Bucks will not be kept whole. That I promise you. It wasn't last time (it dipped in Philly, and Montco and Philly dipped into it, in a back and forth exchange. The lines will be erose - just the way I drew them in that neck of the woods. Otherwise, an incumbent Pubbie or two will be ripe hanging fruit, and that is just not going to happen. What you do, is shove the Dems in the Philly metro area, here and there, in what is effectively the importation of Pubbies from the hinterland, into the Philly metro area, in a game of dominoes, that starts all the way about 85 miles east of Harrisburg in Chambersville, and areas north, and moves east. It is kind of like playing dominoes.

[dpmapper]

How are you calculating that, Torie?  What additional Dem areas would you add to the pack, and in exchange for what (besides the handful of 50-50 precincts in south Philly)?  (Remember that I'm assuming Bucks stays whole.)

Look at my map. Bucks will not be kept whole. That I promise you. It wasn't last time (it dipped in Philly, and Montco and Philly dipped into it, in a back and forth exchange. The lines will be erose - just the way I drew them in that neck of the woods. Otherwise, an incumbent Pubbie or two will be ripe hanging fruit, and that is just not going to happen. What you do, is shove the Dems in the Philly metro area, here and there, in what is effectively the importation of Pubbies from the hinterland, into the Philly metro area, in a game of dominoes, that starts all the way about 85 miles east of Harrisburg in Chambersville, and areas north, and moves east. It is kind of like playing dominoes.

Bucks was kept whole in 2000.  Yes, it added MontCo and Phila bits but not vice versa.  Or by "last time" do you mean 1990??

Anyhow, I stand by my assertion that my map is basically the best Dem pack one can do if one leaves Bucks in one piece.

[Torie]

Yes, you are right. I thought there was one PA-13 jut into Bucks, but alas not. There were some erose Bucks juts into Montco and Philly. But that was done for population reasons, and this ludicrous Pubbie goal of trying to make PA-13 into a competitive CD. It had nothing to do with the Bucks line being like some magic Maginot Line. Anyway, if that is your constraint so be it; go for it. But if it is a PA Pubbie constraint, than PA Pubbies are dumber than a box of rocks, and I will let the world Pubbie world know about it.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Another stab at a Republican PA map:



Open in a new window to make it bigger.

PA-01 (blue, Bob Brady - D) - Mostly the same, just takes in a little more of Delaware County. 39.5% black VAP. Goes from 88-11 Obama to 85-14 Obama.
PA-02 (green, Chaka Fattah - D) - Also pretty much the same as the old district. 55.0% black VAP. Goes from 90-10 Obama to 90-9 Obama.
PA-03 (purple NW, Mike Kelly - R) - Borders change, but pretty similar to the old district. Goes from 49-49 McCain to 50-49 McCain.
PA-04 (red, Jason Altmire - D and Mark Critz - D) - I carved up both Altmire and Critz's districts in an attempt to get rid of both. PA-04 contains both Altmire's home in suburban Allegheny County and Critz's home in Johnstown. I cut out the areas that went strong for Altmire (Beaver and Lawrence Counties) and for Critz (Greene, Fayette, and Washington Counties) and instead centered the district in Westmoreland County. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 56-43 McCain.
PA-05 (yellow N, Glenn Thompson - R) - Had to shift this one south in order to accomodate PA-10, but it remains 55-44 McCain.
PA-06 (teal, Jim Gerlach - R) - This one had to shift north. Whereas it used to be mostly in Chester County, now it's mostly in Montgomery and Berks. Gerlach might not like having a bunch of new territory, but I managed to cut the Obama margin quite a bit. It went from 58-41 Obama to 52-47 Obama.
PA-07 (grey, Patrick Meehan - R) - Dropped the Montgomery County portion of the district and added a lot more of Chester County. Goes from 56-43 Obama to 53-46 Obama.
PA-08 (light purple SE, Mike Fitzpatrick - R) - Bucks County stays all in the same district, but the bits that poke into Philadelphia and Montgomery County are reconfigured to drop the margin a bit. Goes from 54-45 Obama to 53-46 Obama.
PA-09 (sky blue, Bill Shuster - R) - Stretches east to gobble up some Democrat-friendly parts of PA-12. Remains the most Republican district in the state, though. Goes from 63-35 McCain to 59-39 McCain.
PA-10 (magenta, Tom Marino - R) - Chops out the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area stuff and stretches west way across the state. Stays the same at 54-45 McCain.
PA-11 (light green, Lou Barletta - R) - Almost an entirely new district, but Barletta will be happy to be in one that voted for McCain. Cuts out all of Scranton and Wilkes-Barre and instead goes down to Harrisburg. Goes from 57-42 Obama to 52-47 McCain.
PA-12 (light purple S, Todd Platts - R) - The former PA-19 remains pretty much the same. Goes from 56-42 McCain to 56-43 McCain.
PA-13 (pink, Allyson Schwartz - D) - Redrawn a bit to soak up some more Democratic territory. Goes from 59-41 Obama to 62-37 Obama.
PA-14 (brown, Mike Doyle - D) - Expands a bit, but pretty much the same. Goes from 70-29 Obama to 68-32 Obama.
PA-15 (orange, Charlie Dent - R) - Cut Bethlehem out of the district and expanded it north. Goes from 56-43 Obama to 53-46 Obama.
PA-16 (light green S, Joe Pitts - R) - Pretty similar to the old district, just swaps a bit of Chester with PA-07. Stays the same at 51-48 McCain.
PA-17 (purple NE, Tim Holden - D) - Holden gets an almost completely new district; basically just attached Schuylkill County to a Dem vote sink that takes in Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, and Bethlehem. Goes from 57-42 McCain to 58-41 Obama.
PA-18 (yellow SW, Tim Murphy - R) - Drops a bunch of Westmoreland County and pulls in parts of PA-04 and PA-12 to weaken the Democrats' chances of holding PA-04. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 54-45 McCain.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

And for an intellectual exercise, here's a Democratic gerrymander:



As usual, new window = bigger. I cut the 18th district.


PA-01 (blue) - Soaks up some Republican parts of Delaware County. 49% white, 29% black, 13% Hispanic, 8% Asian VAP. Goes from 88-11 Obama to 78-21 Obama.
PA-02 (green) - Stretches up to the northeastern end of Philadelphia to take in some Republican precincts. 50.2% black VAP. Goes from 90-10 Obama to 84-16 Obama.
PA-03 (purple) - Mike Kelly is one of the few Republican winners here; he gets an uber-safe district based in his home turf of Butler County. Goes from 49-49 McCain to 60-39 McCain.
PA-04 (red) - Jason Altmire likely wouldn't want an Obama district, so I kept this a McCain district, but it's much closer now. Drops the worst parts of the district for him and adds some more of Allegheny, including a bit of northern Pittsburgh. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 50-49 McCain.
PA-05 (yellow NW) - Time to get serious here. Glenn Thompson's district has Erie County appended to it in order to create a Dem-friendly swing district. Goes from 55-44 McCain to 54-45 Obama.
PA-06 (teal) - Jim Gerlach's district is drawn out from under him (he's just across the border, in PA-16), and also has much of its territory removed to create a Lancaster-Reading-Pottstown-Norristown district. Gerlach could run here, but it might be easier for him to run in PA-16, given that his Chester County base is mostly there. Goes from 58-41 Obama to 56-43 Obama.
PA-07 (grey) - Patrick Meehan and Joe Pitts are put together in this district, which is strengthened from 56-43 Obama to 61-38 Obama.
PA-08 (light purple SE) - Oh no, Bucks County got chopped up! Add parts of Philadelphia and Montgomery County, and you get a district that goes from 54-45 Obama to 60-39 Obama.
PA-09 (sky blue) - Bill Shuster's district remains mostly the same, and stays 63-35 McCain.
PA-10 (magenta) - Tom Marino gets a safe district, going from 54-45 McCain to 59-40 McCain.
PA-11 (light green NE) - Not much could be done to unseat Lou Barletta, so the Democrats would have to do some work. Goes from 57-42 Obama to 56-43 Obama.
PA-12 (light purple SW) - Reconfigured the Murthamander to up the Democratic performance a bit. Goes from 50-49 McCain to 51-48 Obama.
PA-13 (pink) - Allyson Schwartz gets the other half of Bucks County. Goes from 59-41 Obama to 61-39 Obama.
PA-14 (brown) - Mike Doyle's district drops quite a bit of Democratic performance, but remains safe. Tim Murphy is dropped in this district. Goes from 70-29 Obama to 62-37 Obama.
PA-15 (orange) - Charlie Dent gains some more Democratic territory and loses some Republican territory, goes from 56-43 Obama to 59-40 Obama.
PA-16 (light green SE) - Republican vote sink. No incumbent actually lives in this district, but it would be good for either Gerlach or Pitts, who are both just over the border. Goes from 51-48 McCain to 55-44 McCain.
PA-17 (dark purple) - Tim Holden gets a much improved district, though not a safe one, so he can continue being a Blue Dog. Picks up the Harrisburg suburbs and York. Goes from 57-42 McCain to 50-49 Obama.
PA-18 (yellow SE) - Formerly PA-19, Todd Platts is probably just outside the district, since he lives in York. It's extremely Republican now, going from 56-42 McCain to 61-39 McCain.