US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Wwll, this is what happens, when you have no rules to leash your mouse.  

The first poster to guess in which precinct Congressman Altmire in PA-04 (D) lives in just by looking at the lines of the map along (look at the SW PA zoom at the bottom of this post) using inferential logic, gets to pick my signature on my posts for a week. As a hint, I deliberately put him in his own CD, rather than having in PA-18, just to eliminate any temptation on his part to take a crack at running against Murphy in PA-18 (since Murphy's CD is slightly more Dem, and he had about half of Murphy's territory in the current map.

McCandless Township, Ward 1, District 4, Allegheny County?

[Torie]

Wwll, this is what happens, when you have no rules to leash your mouse.  

The first poster to guess in which precinct Congressman Altmire in PA-04 (D) lives in just by looking at the lines of the map along (look at the SW PA zoom at the bottom of this post) using inferential logic, gets to pick my signature on my posts for a week. As a hint, I deliberately put him in his own CD, rather than having in PA-18, just to eliminate any temptation on his part to take a crack at running against Murphy in PA-18 (since Murphy's CD is slightly more Dem, and he had about half of Murphy's territory in the current map.

McCandless Township, Ward 1, District 4, Allegheny County?

You sir are indeed correct, and get to pick my signature for a week. Well done! 

[Keystone Phil]

Ugh, that yellow district in the SE (which is where I'd be) would be one of the worst districts ever.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Wwll, this is what happens, when you have no rules to leash your mouse.  

The first poster to guess in which precinct Congressman Altmire in PA-04 (D) lives in just by looking at the lines of the map along (look at the SW PA zoom at the bottom of this post) using inferential logic, gets to pick my signature on my posts for a week. As a hint, I deliberately put him in his own CD, rather than having in PA-18, just to eliminate any temptation on his part to take a crack at running against Murphy in PA-18 (since Murphy's CD is slightly more Dem, and he had about half of Murphy's territory in the current map.

McCandless Township, Ward 1, District 4, Allegheny County?

You sir are indeed correct, and get to pick my signature for a week. Well done! 

Normally I would pick something suitably sadistic, but under the circumstances, I think condolences to Congresswoman Giffords and everyone who was affected by the attack in Tucson would be most appropriate. Change your avatar to D-AZ for the duration.

[Torie]

Ugh, that yellow district in the SE (which is where I'd be) would be one of the worst districts ever.

PA-13 certainly has merit, but my personal favorite is PA-14. I just love my octopus, and when the final census figures come in, I look forward to extending the NNE tentacle up to New Castle in Lawrence County to help out PA-04 some more, which will just make it all the more outstanding.

You are in PA-13 eh, Phil?  You must live in a more than 55% Obama precinct then, and probably at least 57%. Everything more Pubbie in the City of Philadelphia in NE Philly is in PA-08 except for a few connecting precincts along the Delaware River heading to Bucks County, to get at the Dem precincts there.

[Torie]

Wwll, this is what happens, when you have no rules to leash your mouse.  

The first poster to guess in which precinct Congressman Altmire in PA-04 (D) lives in just by looking at the lines of the map along (look at the SW PA zoom at the bottom of this post) using inferential logic, gets to pick my signature on my posts for a week. As a hint, I deliberately put him in his own CD, rather than having in PA-18, just to eliminate any temptation on his part to take a crack at running against Murphy in PA-18 (since Murphy's CD is slightly more Dem, and he had about half of Murphy's territory in the current map.

McCandless Township, Ward 1, District 4, Allegheny County?

You sir are indeed correct, and get to pick my signature for a week. Well done! 

Normally I would pick something suitably sadistic, but under the circumstances, I think condolences to Congresswoman Giffords and everyone who was affected by the attack in Tucson would be most appropriate. Change your avatar to D-AZ for the duration.

So let it be done.

[Keystone Phil]

You are in PA-13 eh, Phil?  You must live in a more than 55% Obama precinct then, and probably at least 57%. Everything more Pubbie in the City of Philadelphia in NE Philly is in PA-08 except for a few connecting precincts along the Delaware River heading to Bucks County, to get at the Dem precincts there.

My precinct went for Obama with 53% of the vote. It's pretty much a bellwether. When I saw Obama won my precinct that night, I turned to the Obama poll watcher and congratulated him on what was going to be a great night for them. I really thought McCain would eek out a win here. Once I saw otherwise, that was all the confirmation I needed to know it was done. Anyway, it's one of the ones you're thinking of along the Delaware River (though the ones in question, while close to the river, don't actually touch it). I live right across the street from the border with Bucks.

I'm sure McCain won some precincts a little further south (57th, 64th and 55th Wards come to mind).

[Torie]

I think I found your precinct Phil. Suffice it to say, it is but one of 4 connector precincts in NE Philly that is less than 55% Obama in NE Philly, that is needed to be used by PA-13 to connect it to a bunch of more Dem precincts beyond the connector precinct.  Do you see what I mean by looking at the map?

Here is a question for you Phil, that if you get the answer "right," you get to select my next signature after I am finished honoring Congresswoman Giffords (per Vazdul nailing my last question).  What rather specific psephological event would specifically take PA-06 and PA-07 per my map totally out of the danger zone, while doing nothing for say PA-11 and PA-15?

Anyone else is free to play this game too, and select my next signature (within certain limits of decorum set solely by me ) by the way.

[Keystone Phil]

I think I found your precinct Phil. Suffice it to say, it is but one of 4 connector precincts in NE Philly that is less than 55% Obama in NE Philly, that is needed to be used by PA-13 to connect it to a bunch of more Dem precincts beyond the connector precinct.   Do you see what I mean by looking at the map?

I think so. 

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've often wondered what is the exact population density of Phil's zip code and neighborhood.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Torie, it would be helpful if you'd post the partisan breakdown of the districts in your maps. I can't just look at a map and say "well, that'd be great for the Republicans".

[krazen1211]

Joe Pitts's residence is really, really irritating. It makes the map so much cleaner if he just moves.



I did the best I could for PA-8 and PA-15.

PA-8: Obama 50%
PA-15: Obama 51%
PA-10: Obama 47%
PA-11: Obama 46%
PA-6: Obama 49%
PA-16: Obama 45%
PA-12: Obama 46%

PA-7: Obama 55%. Sorry Meehan.
PA-17: Obama 63%
PA-14: Obama 70%
PA-13: Obama 66%
PA-1: Obama 85%
PA-2: Obama 88%

PA-9: Obama 42%
PA-5: Obama 45%
PA-3: Obama 46%
PA-4: Obama 43%
PA-18: Obama 46%


I really think the wise thing to do is to choose 2 between Gerlach, Meehan, Fitzpatrick. So I did.

[Torie]

Torie, it would be helpful if you'd post the partisan breakdown of the districts in your maps. I can't just look at a map and say "well, that'd be great for the Republicans".

My numbers are all in a matrix chart on the previous page. The map on this page is just switching around voters between PA-16 and PA-09 (well not anymore, I switched out that map (thank God for the "modify" button on this site) for a map that I think is close to final form, but it does not move the numbers all that much, and affects only PA-06, 07, 09, 15 and 16, with each of those listed  CD's getting a higher Pubbie percentage, except PA-15, which drops 3 points to 51-49 Obama). The main benefit of the map, other than giving a booster shot to the map drawer, Congressman Pitts, and his PA-16, is that both Pitts and Platts in PA-09 get much more of their previous voters, and the map "looks" prettier (I put "looks" in quotes, because there is nothing "pretty" in the end about a vicious gerrymander, and that is precisely what I have done, I think).

All of the Pubbie incumbents are quite safe in my map, with Fitzpatrick in PA-08 perhaps on the edge of slipping into a potentially marginal CD, but it is the best one can do, after sweating out each and every precinct, given its geographic location (it is more marginal because it just doesn't have the snap back potential from that Pubbie disaster known as 2008, the way PA-06 and PA-07 do and did).

My trick was to convert PA-17 into a heavy Dem district, from a comfortable Pubbie one, inasmuch as Holden has demonstrated he cannot be defeated with an "efficient" number of Pubbies. It solves a lot of problems at once. The rest was more about squeezing out 1-2 points of PVI where I could, and in this game, I to 2 points means a lot.

And potentially even more than that is at stake, if for the Dem pack in the 3 Philly CD's, you don't work each precinct at the edges hard, one by one. There is no other way. And sometimes by doing that you bag something fairly important, like my cut out of South Philly into PA-07. That one cut out was worth perhaps as two Pubbie points, all of which were desperately needed to pump into PA 06, 07 and 08. So the cut out was huge.

[Keystone Phil]

I've often wondered what is the exact population density of Phil's zip code and neighborhood.

My immediate neighborhood is very densely populated. I live in one of the largest precincts in Northeast Philly (over one thousand registered voters. That is big for a Philly precinct especially up here). The zip code probably isn't that dense because the three precincts closest to me are mostly single homes with a decent amount of land for a residence in a major city.

[Torie]

Here is the map I think that is nearing the point of being presentable  enough to ship off to Pitts' office, and whomever other powers that be. I will send off all my final form maps to the powers that be. That is part of the fun of it all. And if the map they pick varies, it will be interesting to see as to why, and if the purpose(s) is(are) self serving, well then the public square will have a chance to call them on it. And that is what makes this really fun.  Get to be as good or better than they are (e.g., and then when they see the map, they say hey, this guy really knows what he is doing, and maybe we should take him seriously. Just go for it; isn't that what makes life worth living?  If you don't go for it, one thing is for sure; nothing will happen, unless stasis, in some existential sense, is in and of itself a "happening."

Although for some CD's it is hard to see (for example PA-16's impingement into York County is new territory), I have with this map shown by shade variation, where the new CD's picked up new territory, and lost old territory.  I did this to emphasize that one important factor to consider is trying to minimize just how many new voters Pubbie incumbents have to deal with. The more new voters, the more voters the incumbent will have to romance from scratch, although it would be of considerable help if the new territory were in the same media market. That is the main reason why I reconfigured PA-16 and PA-09, in order to reduce the amount of new territory each Pubbie incumbent acquired.

I will put up the new stats matrix chart when I have processed the exact numbers on my spread sheet. But I quite happy with them. [Addendum; stats now added.]

[Torie]

I wonder why this housing tract, not far from Phil's pad in NE Philly, voted 2-1 for McCain, making it a Philly precinct that is way off at the end of the Pubbie side of the tail of Philly's partisan bell curve of its precincts - way at the end. It does not look that different from some other precincts in the area, which like this one are all single family houses of about this SES niche.  Is it because it is right next to a Catholic Church and school, and these folks like to go to church a lot, and send their kids to Catholic school, which tends to be a  Pubbie parameter these days?

[Keystone Phil]

It's five minutes from me. It's a wealthier pocket of the Northeast. The single houses aren't your typical single houses for Northeast Philly. It being next to St. Jerome's has nothing to do with its politics.

[jimrtex]

I wonder why this housing tract, not far from Phil's pad in NE Philly, voted 2-1 for McCain, making it a Philly precinct that is way off at the end of the Pubbie side of the tail of Philly's partisan bell curve of its precincts - way at the end. It does not look that different from some other precincts in the area, which like this one are all single family houses of about this SES niche.  Is it because it is right next to a Catholic Church and school, and these folks like to go to church a lot, and send their kids to Catholic school, which tends to be a  Pubbie parameter these days?

The area across Westin to the east is duplexes, and the area to the north across Holmes is fourplexes with not enough off-street parking.  The northern boundary of the precinct is not on Holmes as one might expect, but a couple of streets south, so you get rid of the folks who want to live in the neighborhood, but could only afford to live on the main road, and not on the preferable locations that back up to Pennypack Creek.

If you zoom out some, it is pretty clear that Pennypack Creek was a traditional edge of the city.  Northeast Philadelphia Airport was built during WWII by the Army Air Corps but not completed, but it has clearly blocked residential development in Northeast Philadelphia, so that most of the development is closer to the Delaware River, or out towards Montco, which probably has some Republican precincts(?yes).

So you would have Frankford Ave (US 13) coming out of the city, and you will notice that the streets nearest to it are traditional grid.  You would have State Ave down by the river adjacent to the railroad, and probably with some industrial plants because of the trains, so that wouldn't be a desirable area.  And you would have Roosevelt Blvd (US 1).  Is it named after Theodore or Franklin?

The particular area in question is on a peninsula between Pennypack Creek and a tributary, and only accessible from the north (at least before the time when bridges were routinely built for residential streets).  For a short time in the 1940s, Northeast Philadelphia Airport was the city airport, since what is now Philadelphia International was closed due to military security reasons (because of the shipyard?) and there was later commuter service from Northeast Philadelphia.  So you have an area that was close to an airport, without real good accessibility.  But it was closer to the city than Bucks, so eventually you get some infill.

You have an I-95 exit at Academy maybe designed for the airport.  It kind of looks like the entire area south of the airport between Grant and Roosevelt may have been developed at the same time, based on the curvilinear street patterns.  Areas closer to the airport get the multiplexes, and the furthest area, down by the creek, in between the runway and traffic pattern got the largest houses.  It is also convenient to Nazareth Hospital, so doctors just starting out could live in the area before moving out to Bucks or Montco.

[TeePee4Prez]

It's five minutes from me. It's a wealthier pocket of the Northeast. The single houses aren't your typical single houses for Northeast Philly. It being next to St. Jerome's has nothing to do with its politics.

Pretty close to me as well, but Torie brought up a point I once thought as well.  I noticed the areas around Catholic churches are some of the most Republican divisions in the city as well.  Look at the areas around St. Matt's, Cecilia's and Christopher's.  They are arguably some of the most Republican in the city.  I think the division that voted 68% for McCain and gave Crazy McDermott 5% (the CP Congressional candidate against 2 pro-choicers Schwartz and Kats) was near St. Cecilia's in Fox Chase.   

[Keystone Phil]

It's five minutes from me. It's a wealthier pocket of the Northeast. The single houses aren't your typical single houses for Northeast Philly. It being next to St. Jerome's has nothing to do with its politics.

Pretty close to me as well, but Torie brought up a point I once thought as well.  I noticed the areas around Catholic churches are some of the most Republican divisions in the city as well.  Look at the areas around St. Matt's, Cecilia's and Christopher's.  They are arguably some of the most Republican in the city.  I think the division that voted 68% for McCain and gave Crazy McDermott 5% (the CP Congressional candidate against 2 pro-choicers Schwartz and Kats) was near St. Cecilia's in Fox Chase.   

They are like that for other reasons though. Fox Chase is very German (Bavarian German). Old Somerton is wealthier so that explains the results are St. Christopher's. The area around St. Matt's/Mayfair is so Republican because Perzel built it up during the 1980s though I do think strong social conservative/Roman Catholic beliefs play a big role there.

[Brittain33]

I clicked on a random South Philly block in Google Street View to see what the houses were like and one of them was flying the "Don't Tread on Me" flag.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's not necessarily a right-wing flag. It was common at anti-war rallies and whatnot during the Bush years...which is when I think Google's streetview was taken (at least in Minneapolis, I deduced it was in 2006 by reading the movies playing a theater.) Basically it's used by whichever side is out of power.

Scratch that actually, they must've recently been updated. It's now showing movies from late 2009.

[Keystone Phil]

I clicked on a random South Philly block in Google Street View to see what the houses were like and one of them was flying the "Don't Tread on Me" flag.

Well, that's random for South Philly. 

[Torie]

Well as expected, with better intra county Allegheny County population figures now available, PA-14 needed about 23,000 more people, so its NW tentacle continued another fifty miles NNW to pick up about 10 mostly 70% plus precincts in New Castle, helping PA-18, which was further helped by making up its loss of the New Castle Obama precincts with some marginally to comfortable McCain precincts in Allegheny from PA-04.  PA-03 had to drop most of one Butler County township,making it a tad more Dem.

In Indiana, the old city of Indianapolis suffered some rather major population losses, so IN-07 now takes in almost all of Monroe County, booting IN-08 from it entirely. The Indiana map underwent rather substantial changes. I will put that up on the Indiana thread later.

[Brittain33]

There is plenty of interesting gossip in this discussion, much of it different from speculation we've made before.

http://www.politicspa.com/exclusive-pa%E2%80%99s-gop-congessional-delegation-coming-to-harrisburg-to-discuss-redistricting-scenarios/22138/

Critz is protected because neighboring Republicans don't want more Dem voters... but Altmire's district could be made more Republican without being dismantled. (So how do they account for lost population in the west?)

Merging Schwartz and Fattah is discussed. Maybe this is what KP was alluding to?

No Republican votes wasted on shoring up Barletta. He sinks or swims on his own.