US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[nclib]

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At the time (and even in 2004 as the old-time forumites know), PA-13 was expected to be competitive.

[dpmapper]

CD16 - dark teal (Pitts): Probably the Rep. least happy with this map, Pitts is down to 51-48 McCain due to taking in all of Reading.  Oh well, them's the breaks.  (I'm not sure McCain won by that much more than this in the old district, though.)  

I would expect him to be doubly unhappy since he lives nowhere near this district. His home is in southern Chester Co near your border between CD 6 and 7.

D'oh!  I just assumed that OF COURSE the Lancaster Cty rep would live in Lancaster County.  I checked almost everyone else but him.  I kind of wonder if he couldn't have been given a good fight by a strong Lancaster Cty Democrat.  I suppose such creatures might not exist in real life.  

Anyhow, it's an easy tweak to add Kennett Square and West Chester back to Pitts's district in exchange for Gerlach regaining his Reading wards.  Everything stays the same partisan balance, and Pitts has basically his exact same district, minus a few Republican areas of Chester County.  He shouldn't complain.  

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I wouldn't concede a district just because there's a strong candidate on the other side.  Shift the district by 4 points and he only wins by 3 this year, against a lackluster candidate; I think the GOP has a reasonable shot at him and there's always the chance he leaves the seat open for one reason or another.  (And Marino is stuck no matter what - he'll face Thompson in a primary if you stick Williamsport in CD5.)  

By the way, the new CD17 on my map is actually a pretty coherent district if you ignore the finger out to Luzerne County - the upper Susquehanna Valley (Union, Snyder, Northumberland, Montour, Columbia, and lower Lycoming) is generally thought of as constituting a region of sorts.  

Critz would have lost by 8-10 this year had he run in the new Somerset district.  It's 5-6 points more Republican than his district is now, plus it doesn't have his Johnstown base.  What am I missing?  

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

CD16 - dark teal (Pitts): Probably the Rep. least happy with this map, Pitts is down to 51-48 McCain due to taking in all of Reading.  Oh well, them's the breaks.  (I'm not sure McCain won by that much more than this in the old district, though.)  

I would expect him to be doubly unhappy since he lives nowhere near this district. His home is in southern Chester Co near your border between CD 6 and 7.

D'oh!  I just assumed that OF COURSE the Lancaster Cty rep would live in Lancaster County.  I checked almost everyone else but him.  I kind of wonder if he couldn't have been given a good fight by a strong Lancaster Cty Democrat.  I suppose such creatures might not exist in real life.  

Anyhow, it's an easy tweak to add Kennett Square and West Chester back to Pitts's district in exchange for Gerlach regaining his Reading wards.  Everything stays the same partisan balance, and Pitts has basically his exact same district, minus a few Republican areas of Chester County.  He shouldn't complain.  

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I wouldn't concede a district just because there's a strong candidate on the other side.  Shift the district by 4 points and he only wins by 3 this year, against a lackluster candidate; I think the GOP has a reasonable shot at him and there's always the chance he leaves the seat open for one reason or another.  (And Marino is stuck no matter what - he'll face Thompson in a primary if you stick Williamsport in CD5.)  

By the way, the new CD17 on my map is actually a pretty coherent district if you ignore the finger out to Luzerne County - the upper Susquehanna Valley (Union, Snyder, Northumberland, Montour, Columbia, and lower Lycoming) is generally thought of as constituting a region of sorts.  

Critz would have lost by 8-10 this year had he run in the new Somerset district.  It's 5-6 points more Republican than his district is now, plus it doesn't have his Johnstown base.  What am I missing?  

Chopping up the current tenth isn't a wise approach. Its currently a strong Republican seat and the GOP has no shortage of candidates that could hold that seat or "slightly less GOP" seat for decades. I see no reason to eliminate it and force Marino into a race with Holden.

My suggestion would be to use the 13 and have it take in as much of the heavily Dem areas in the SE as possible. My last map (I didn't post this one) had it stretching from NJ border through lower Bucks, taking in the heavily Dem areas of North philly and giving the Republcian/marginal ones to the 8th, then taking the 13th up through Montco and then running a tiny sliver of the district into lower Delco's Dem areas that I couldn't put into the first. I replaced whatever remaining population is needed for the 8th with GOP areas in Northern Montco. Bucks remains almost entirely intact, except for a line parralleling the Delaware to NJ that is in the 13th. I realize Fitz lives in Levittown but, he can 1) move, or 2) PA doesn't require Reps to live in the districts, I don't beleive. Ugly gerrymander I know, but it secures the 8th considerably and the 7th somewhat.

The seventh district is the rest of Delco, and parts of Chester and Montco. I am still refining this area and not being able to tell cummulative partisan data of diverse districts in the app is annoying. The sixth is 2/3's of Chester, northern Montco and Southern Berks.

[dpmapper]

Chopping up the current tenth isn't a wise approach. Its currently a strong Republican seat and the GOP has no shortage of candidates that could hold that seat or "slightly less GOP" seat for decades. I see no reason to eliminate it and force Marino into a race with Holden.

My suggestion would be to use the 13 and have it take in as much of the heavily Dem areas in the SE as possible. My last map (I didn't post this one) had it stretching from NJ border through lower Bucks, taking in the heavily Dem areas of North philly and giving the Republcian/marginal ones to the 8th, then taking the 13th up through Montco and then running a tiny sliver of the district into lower Delco's Dem areas that I couldn't put into the first. I replaced whatever remaining population is needed for the 8th with GOP areas in Northern Montco. Bucks remains almost entirely intact, except for a line parralleling the Delaware to NJ that is in the 13th. I realize Fitz lives in Levittown but, he can 1) move, or 2) PA doesn't require Reps to live in the districts, I don't beleive. Ugly gerrymander I know, but it secures the 8th considerably and the 7th somewhat.

The seventh district is the rest of Delco, and parts of Chester and Montco. I am still refining this area and not being able to tell cummulative partisan data of diverse districts in the app is annoying. The sixth is 2/3's of Chester, northern Montco and Southern Berks.

Yeah, if one were inclined to chop up Bucks then that's what you'd do.  I don't think it gains as much as one would think initially, however - every area added to the 13th has to be matched by another area going back to the 8th or 7th, and pretty much every ward in the 13th is 60+% Obama already.  Plus most the tilting-red areas of NE Philly would then be cut off and have to go in the 13th. 

Re: chopping the 10th, this is just semantics.  You could call the pink district the 10th (and it's just as strongly Republican) and then it's Holden's 17th that "disappears".  You have to put Holden *somewhere*, and better there than in Dent's or Gerlach's.  I suppose you could try shoving him into Barletta's.  Then Marino is safe but Barletta is a likely goner.  I suspect the GOP thinks of Barletta as more valuable - GOP candidates who can win the 10th are a dime a dozen, but ones who can win Scranton/Wilkes-Barre are rare. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Chopping up the current tenth isn't a wise approach. Its currently a strong Republican seat and the GOP has no shortage of candidates that could hold that seat or "slightly less GOP" seat for decades. I see no reason to eliminate it and force Marino into a race with Holden.

My suggestion would be to use the 13 and have it take in as much of the heavily Dem areas in the SE as possible. My last map (I didn't post this one) had it stretching from NJ border through lower Bucks, taking in the heavily Dem areas of North philly and giving the Republcian/marginal ones to the 8th, then taking the 13th up through Montco and then running a tiny sliver of the district into lower Delco's Dem areas that I couldn't put into the first. I replaced whatever remaining population is needed for the 8th with GOP areas in Northern Montco. Bucks remains almost entirely intact, except for a line parralleling the Delaware to NJ that is in the 13th. I realize Fitz lives in Levittown but, he can 1) move, or 2) PA doesn't require Reps to live in the districts, I don't beleive. Ugly gerrymander I know, but it secures the 8th considerably and the 7th somewhat.

The seventh district is the rest of Delco, and parts of Chester and Montco. I am still refining this area and not being able to tell cummulative partisan data of diverse districts in the app is annoying. The sixth is 2/3's of Chester, northern Montco and Southern Berks.

Yeah, if one were inclined to chop up Bucks then that's what you'd do.  I don't think it gains as much as one would think initially, however - every area added to the 13th has to be matched by another area going back to the 8th or 7th, and pretty much every ward in the 13th is 60+% Obama already.  Plus most the tilting-red areas of NE Philly would then be cut off and have to go in the 13th. 

Re: chopping the 10th, this is just semantics.  You could call the pink district the 10th (and it's just as strongly Republican) and then it's Holden's 17th that "disappears".  You have to put Holden *somewhere*, and better there than in Dent's or Gerlach's.  I suppose you could try shoving him into Barletta's.  Then Marino is safe but Barletta is a likely goner.  I suspect the GOP thinks of Barletta as more valuable - GOP candidates who can win the 10th are a dime a dozen, but ones who can win Scranton/Wilkes-Barre are rare. 

Scranton/Wilkes-Barre is a tough, tough district, I will grant that. A lot will depend on how Barletta votes and how entrenched he can become there.

I think it would be best to Holden where he is with his own district. Throwing him in with any Republican is asking for trouble, and most Republicans should have learned from what happened to Gekas, that it is best to just wait out Holden's retirement.

[J. J.]

Critz would have lost by 8-10 this year had he run in the new Somerset district.  It's 5-6 points more Republican than his district is now, plus it doesn't have his Johnstown base.  What am I missing?  

Fayette, Greene, and those sections of Washington and Westmoreland Counties in the district are heavily Democratic in registration.  In even a neutral year, they will go Democratic.

You could drive PA-4 down the Monogehala and into Fayette and Green Counties and combine it with PA 12.  Think of a J on top of a T.

Murrysville, could go into PA-18, if needed.  The northern tier of Westmoreland, possibly all of Armstrong and Indian Counties would go into PA-4 and that could extend along the Comemagh River into Johnstown.

Hempfield, Unity (part) and South Huntington Townships and Greensburg (and the enclaves) would go into PA-4.  Ligonier would go into PA-9.

Most of Washington Fayette and all of Green would go into PA-4 (with the remainder in PA-14.

PA-18 would skirt Pittsburgh in the north.

(I still think it's better to slice up Montco like a loaf of bread.)

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I can tell you right now that Critz is finished;  PA-12 was an blatant gerrymander for Murtha; the Republicans can easliy just throw in the more conservative parts of Westmoreland County that were meticulously avoided in the hopes of protecting Murtha.

Just a little reminder that Republicans had complete control of the redistricting process. PA-12 was drawn to primary Murtha with fellow Democrat Frank Mascara, who was eliminated, while PA-18 was drawn specifically to elect Tim Murphy, one of the Republicans who drew the map.

[J. J.]

I can tell you right now that Critz is finished;  PA-12 was an blatant gerrymander for Murtha; the Republicans can easliy just throw in the more conservative parts of Westmoreland County that were meticulously avoided in the hopes of protecting Murtha.

Just a little reminder that Republicans had complete control of the redistricting process. PA-12 was drawn to primary Murtha with fellow Democrat Frank Mascara, who was eliminated, while PA-18 was drawn specifically to elect Tim Murphy, one of the Republicans who drew the map.

PA-12 ended at Mascara's precinct.

PA-4 was specifically drawn for Hart, and you see who is holding it.

If you eliminate PA-12, the question will be, can you keep PA-18 Republican?

[Brittain33]

PA-4 was specifically drawn for Hart, and you see who is holding it.

PA-4 was preserved the way it was in the 1990s at Hart's request, which isn't the same thing. She resisted the legislature's wish to make it a safer seat for Republicans because she prized her cross-party appeal and thought it would be an advantage to get her to the Senate after Specter retired in 2010. So it's more marginal than it needed to be, and we got Altmire.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

PA-4 was specifically drawn for Hart, and you see who is holding it.

PA-4 was preserved the way it was in the 1990s at Hart's request, which isn't the same thing. She resisted the legislature's wish to make it a safer seat for Republicans because she prized her cross-party appeal and thought it would be an advantage to get her to the Senate after Specter retired in 2010. So it's more marginal than it needed to be, and we got Altmire.

I wonder if it would be possible to do the Murtha/Mascara trick again, this time with Altmire and Critz.

[Brittain33]

PA-4 was specifically drawn for Hart, and you see who is holding it.

PA-4 was preserved the way it was in the 1990s at Hart's request, which isn't the same thing. She resisted the legislature's wish to make it a safer seat for Republicans because she prized her cross-party appeal and thought it would be an advantage to get her to the Senate after Specter retired in 2010. So it's more marginal than it needed to be, and we got Altmire.

I wonder if it would be possible to do the Murtha/Mascara trick again, this time with Altmire and Critz.

You can put Altmire's home in Doyle's district very easily. But I just played around with the Redistricting App and keeping PA-14 as Pitt based, it's almost impossible to put Beaver Falls/New Castle, Johnstown, and Fayette County in the same district without it making the current PA-12 look graceful. It might be possible to reconfigure PA-14 and PA-12 drastically, but PA-14 is pretty well-packed with Dems as it is and then Murphy is vulnerable.

[J. J.]

PA-4 was specifically drawn for Hart, and you see who is holding it.

PA-4 was preserved the way it was in the 1990s at Hart's request, which isn't the same thing. She resisted the legislature's wish to make it a safer seat for Republicans because she prized her cross-party appeal and thought it would be an advantage to get her to the Senate after Specter retired in 2010. So it's more marginal than it needed to be, and we got Altmire.

I wonder if it would be possible to do the Murtha/Mascara trick again, this time with Altmire and Critz.

You can put Altmire's home in Doyle's district very easily. But I just played around with the Redistricting App and keeping PA-14 as Pitt based, it's almost impossible to put Beaver Falls/New Castle, Johnstown, and Fayette County in the same district without it making the current PA-12 look graceful. It might be possible to reconfigure PA-14 and PA-12 drastically, but PA-14 is pretty well-packed with Dems as it is and then Murphy is vulnerable.

1.  As noted, Altmire does not have to live in the district.  He must be a resident of the state.

2.  Don't worry about how stuff looks.  Nobody ever has.

You could run PA-14 further south along the Monongehela.  There are two Republican ways around Pittsburgh.  South, the way it is, and North, where PA-4 is.

You could put some of the Republican sections north of Pittsburgh into PA-18, Take in Butler and some parts of the northern counties, and even parts of western Westmoreland and make PA-18 more Republican.

PA-12, NE Allegheny, north Westmoreland and up the Comemaugh (including Derry) to Johnstown, central part of Hempfield (including Greensburg), at its narrowest point.  Then, add in Mt. Pleasant, North and South Huntington, Rostravor, and into Fayette County.

Brittain, I doubt that her "cross county appeal" was the reason. 

1.  There was no way to create a Republican district without crossing county lines.

2.  Her district was pretty much always in Pittsburgh media market.  It wouldn't have made a huge difference.

[Brittain33]

1.  As noted, Altmire does not have to live in the district.  He must be a resident of the state.

It's not a legal issue, but it's a good way to cause headaches for the person involved and open them up to attacks in the primary and the general for not living in the district. Pennsylvania has a history of taking this into account, it's why PA-7 reached into Marcus Hook to include Curt Weldon's home.

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It's not just that it has to look awful, it's that you'd have to resort to single-precinct chains running for 50+ miles to get from Beaver County to Cambria County and back down to southwestern Pennsylvania to both lock up all the Democratic votes and not exceed maximum population. That's simply not going to happen.

You can say no one cares how it looks, but in reality, you'd never see a true monstrosity like this which links New York City to Buffalo in multiple districts. That's not redistricting, it's mapsturbation.

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Misunderstanding here; I wrote "cross-party," not "cross-county." She liked that she drew the support of anti-abortion, pro-gun Democrats and thought that was her leverage into statewide office.

[TeePee4Prez]

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At the time (and even in 2004 as the old-time forumites know), PA-13 was expected to be competitive.

Well, this one map makes more sense for CD-8 giving Fitzpatrick more conservative parts of current CD-13 such as Mayfair and Fox Chase in Philadelphia along with VERY conservative Bryn Athyn and Huntingdon Valley in Montgomery County.  However, the GOP will have virtually NO shot at beating Schwartz.  Even with this "excursion", Pat Murphy could take CD-8 back in a wave year.

PA is a state the GOP could get too cocky then bitten in the ass in later years. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Critz would have lost by 8-10 this year had he run in the new Somerset district.  It's 5-6 points more Republican than his district is now, plus it doesn't have his Johnstown base.  What am I missing?  

Fayette, Greene, and those sections of Washington and Westmoreland Counties in the district are heavily Democratic in registration.  In even a neutral year, they will go Democratic.

You could drive PA-4 down the Monogehala and into Fayette and Green Counties and combine it with PA 12.  Think of a J on top of a T.

Murrysville, could go into PA-18, if needed.  The northern tier of Westmoreland, possibly all of Armstrong and Indian Counties would go into PA-4 and that could extend along the Comemagh River into Johnstown.

Hempfield, Unity (part) and South Huntington Townships and Greensburg (and the enclaves) would go into PA-4.  Ligonier would go into PA-9.

Most of Washington Fayette and all of Green would go into PA-4 (with the remainder in PA-14.

PA-18 would skirt Pittsburgh in the north.

(I still think it's better to slice up Montco like a loaf of bread.)

Why do you insist on messing up the quotations like that. Now it looks like I said that stuff about Somerset when a clicking on the link reveals I didn't? It was dpmapper who said that.

[J. J.]

Critz would have lost by 8-10 this year had he run in the new Somerset district.  It's 5-6 points more Republican than his district is now, plus it doesn't have his Johnstown base.  What am I missing?  

Fayette, Greene, and those sections of Washington and Westmoreland Counties in the district are heavily Democratic in registration.  In even a neutral year, they will go Democratic.

You could drive PA-4 down the Monogehala and into Fayette and Green Counties and combine it with PA 12.  Think of a J on top of a T.

Murrysville, could go into PA-18, if needed.  The northern tier of Westmoreland, possibly all of Armstrong and Indian Counties would go into PA-4 and that could extend along the Comemagh River into Johnstown.

Hempfield, Unity (part) and South Huntington Townships and Greensburg (and the enclaves) would go into PA-4.  Ligonier would go into PA-9.

Most of Washington Fayette and all of Green would go into PA-4 (with the remainder in PA-14.

PA-18 would skirt Pittsburgh in the north.

(I still think it's better to slice up Montco like a loaf of bread.)

Why do you insist on messing up the quotations like that. Now it looks like I said that stuff about Somerset when a clicking on the link reveals I didn't? It was dpmapper who said that.

Sorry, but I thought is was you.

[J. J.]

1.  As noted, Altmire does not have to live in the district.  He must be a resident of the state.

It's not a legal issue, but it's a good way to cause headaches for the person involved and open them up to attacks in the primary and the general for not living in the district. Pennsylvania has a history of taking this into account, it's why PA-7 reached into Marcus Hook to include Curt Weldon's home.

And Brady didn't live in PA-1 for several years,

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It's not just that it has to look awful, it's that you'd have to resort to single-precinct chains running for 50+ miles to get from Beaver County to Cambria County and back down to southwestern Pennsylvania to both lock up all the Democratic votes and not exceed maximum population. That's simply not going to happen.

You can say no one cares how it looks, but in reality, you'd never see a true monstrosity like this which links New York City to Buffalo in multiple districts. That's not redistricting, it's mapsturbation.




[/quote]

What I envisioned is dividing Hempfield Township between two congressional districts.  Under the current setup, Hempfield is divided between two congressional districts. 

I'd also call your attention to PA-8.  One Montco part is basically connect to the rest of it by a highway.
 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania%27s_8th_congressional_district 

The connection in this version of PA-4 has a much greater width than a highway. 

[Brittain33]

The connection in this version of PA-4 has a much greater width than a highway. 

Have you been able to use the App successfully? If so, I'd really like to see a map of two districts with ~700,000 people, one that concentrates Dems in Pittsburgh and the river valleys without sloughing off too many Dem precincts to Murphy, and one which links the valley towns both above and below Pittsburgh with Johnstown. That little spur in PA-8 connects towns just a few miles apart. I contend that this can't be done across much greater distances like that between Johnstown and the Ohio border. We are at an impasse until one of us draws a map.

[J. J.]

The connection in this version of PA-4 has a much greater width than a highway. 

Have you been able to use the App successfully? If so, I'd really like to see a map of two districts with ~700,000 people, one that concentrates Dems in Pittsburgh and the river valleys without sloughing off too many Dem precincts to Murphy, and one which links the valley towns both above and below Pittsburgh with Johnstown. That little spur in PA-8 connects towns just a few miles apart. I contend that this can't be done across much greater distances like that between Johnstown and the Ohio border. We are at an impasse until one of us draws a map.

Were is the Application? 

[Brittain33]

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

You need to have Microsoft Silverlight installed, too. It should prompt a download.

[Brittain33]

Take a look at the Dem concentration Johnny created here in PA-4 and now imagine it also including Johnstown... and also contorting Republican districts on either side of it at equal population.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=97085.msg2592916#msg2592916

[J. J.]

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

You need to have Microsoft Silverlight installed, too. It should prompt a download.

It uis not downloading.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The connection in this version of PA-4 has a much greater width than a highway. 

Have you been able to use the App successfully? If so, I'd really like to see a map of two districts with ~700,000 people, one that concentrates Dems in Pittsburgh and the river valleys without sloughing off too many Dem precincts to Murphy, and one which links the valley towns both above and below Pittsburgh with Johnstown. That little spur in PA-8 connects towns just a few miles apart. I contend that this can't be done across much greater distances like that between Johnstown and the Ohio border. We are at an impasse until one of us draws a map.

Here's what I did with Western Pennsylvania.



Note: I chose districts whose colors contrast with the colors on the partisan data layer. It makes it easier to know what I'm doing when I can tell the difference between an uber-Republican precinct and a precinct I happened to put in the 4th district.

District 14 (Gold): Not much is changed, I simply took a few Democratic precincts from Murphy's district. 68.10% Obama.
District 4/12 (Yellow): Both Altmire and Critz live in the district. It basically combines the most Democratic areas from the current 4th and 12th districts. 51.95% Obama.
District 3 (Green): Mike Kelly lives in Butler, so the new district shores him up by cutting out Erie. 57.74% McCain.
District 18 (Light Blue): Not much has changed here, either. It may look a bit different, but the core of the district is unchanged. 56.40% McCain.
District 5 (Orange): Glenn Thompson might not be happy about the fact that I put Erie in his district to shore up Kelly. I might go back and trade some territory with Kelly's district. 50.50% McCain.
District 9 (Gray): Shuster takes in Republican areas of Cambria county and loses territory to the east. 56.86% McCain.

[J. J.]

Where does Altmire live?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Where does Altmire live?

McCandless Township, Allegheny County (in the yellow district). I specifically included the entire township to make sure I got his home in the district. If I knew which precinct he lived in, I would only include what was necessary.