US House Redistricting: Pennsylvania

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-brady-accused-of-complicity-with-gop/27137/


Brady is going to deliver votes in exchange for drawing his own district. Naturally its to ensure that the Philadelphia blacks are mostly in Fattah's district.

Haha, I wish this wasn't posted. I purposely avoided posting it because the legislative district in question is mine and I work for one of the people mentioned.

Everyone is obsessed with redistricting now so there are tons of rumors out there. Just to clear things up: Brady isn't going to deliver votes for the candidate in question if you're referring to the Council election. The candidate in question is going to win. Believe me.  Brady already knows that. There isn't a deal on that end. The real story here is this idea that Brady will see to it that a joke Democratic candidate will go up in the Special so the GOP keeps the seat and, in turn, the Republican members of the legislature draw him a favorable district.

Brady is getting a lot of push back on this on his side so I don't know how likely it is to happen. If such a deal with the state legislative leaders goes through, Brady becomes my Congressman.

[krazen1211]

Haha, I wish this wasn't posted. I purposely avoided posting it because the legislative district in question is mine and I work for one of the people mentioned.

Everyone is obsessed with redistricting now so there are tons of rumors out there. Just to clear things up: Brady isn't going to deliver votes for the candidate in question if you're referring to the Council election. The candidate in question is going to win. Believe me.  Brady already knows that. There isn't a deal on that end. The real story here is this idea that Brady will see to it that a joke Democratic candidate will go up in the Special so the GOP keeps the seat and, in turn, the Republican members of the legislature draw him a favorable district.

Brady is getting a lot of push back on this on his side so I don't know how likely it is to happen. If such a deal with the state legislative leaders goes through, Brady becomes my Congressman.

The natural expansion of Brady's district is into the Dem parts of Delaware County and Philadelphia east of Broad Street. Do you think he'll want anything different, like being run into Lower Merion/Montco?

[Keystone Phil]

He wants Northeast Philadelphia. His plan is to snake up along the Delaware River to get areas like mine. He wouldn't want Lower Merion/Montco because...eh...they aren't exactly Bob Brady type Democrats.    At least up here he'd have working class/union voters.

[Keystone Phil]

The district would look a lot like a telephone receiver - the bottom portion would have South Philly then a thin stretch of land would hug the river then the district would expand west again once it hit the Northeast.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Somebody get me out of Chaka freakin' Fattah's district -____-

[Keystone Phil]

Somebody get me out of Chaka freakin' Fattah's district -____-

...

You live in the Philly area?

[jimrtex]

Somebody get me out of Chaka freakin' Fattah's district -____-

...

You live in the Philly area?

Byron Dorgan adopted Chaka Fattah?

[Brittain33]

Rumors that Republican bits of North Allegheny will go into Tim Murphy's district, making a combined PA-4/PA-12 easier for Altmire to win.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-pittsburgh’s-north-hills-may-not-end-up-in-the-4th-district/27501/

I wonder if his district is then going to end up even uglier than the current PA-12, going from the Ohio border to Johnstown and then back under PA-18 to the SW corner of the state.

[Keystone Phil]

Rumors that Republican bits of North Allegheny will go into Tim Murphy's district, making a combined PA-4/PA-12 easier for Altmire to win.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-pittsburgh’s-north-hills-may-not-end-up-in-the-4th-district/27501/

I wonder if his district is then going to end up even uglier than the current PA-12, going from the Ohio border to Johnstown and then back under PA-18 to the SW corner of the state.

That's strange. Murphy doesn't need those areas but we know how incumbents get around this time of the decade...

[minionofmidas]

This is one state where I'm really interested in what the maps are going to look like eventually. When about can we expect maps?

[Torie]

Rumors that Republican bits of North Allegheny will go into Tim Murphy's district, making a combined PA-4/PA-12 easier for Altmire to win.

http://www.politicspa.com/redistricting-watch-pittsburgh’s-north-hills-may-not-end-up-in-the-4th-district/27501/

I wonder if his district is then going to end up even uglier than the current PA-12, going from the Ohio border to Johnstown and then back under PA-18 to the SW corner of the state.

The Pubs just don't seem to buy my idea that having a moderate Dem represent a GOP leaning (not but rock solid GOP) CD, is actually quite a useful exercise do they?    I mean, if the Dem gets too far out of the zone, then he can be replaced by a Pubbie, so the dude is leashed. The alternative is to have an unleashed Dem, by over-Pubbieing CD's of GOP incumbents. Dumb, dumb.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Never forget that politicians are usually terrible judges of this sort of thing.

[Keystone Phil]

This is one state where I'm really interested in what the maps are going to look like eventually. When about can we expect maps?

We're running later that usual. I'm guessing we'll see something by the middle of October. Then we get the fun Supreme Court challenges! I'm just most concerned with our City Council redistricting (I might be thrown into a different district, which I really don't want) so I haven't been following this as closely.

[Sbane]

CD-1 Black VAP%- 44.6%, White VAP%-43.3% Obama-80.2-19.2
CD-2 Black VAP%- 45.3%, White VAP%- 28.9%, Hispanic VAP-18.3% Obama 86.3-13.2
CD-3 Obama 57.4-41.3
CD-4 Obama 57.4-41.3
CD-5 Mccain 59.6-39.1
CD-6 Mccain 50.8-48
CD-7 Obama 59.7-40.3
CD-8 Obama 60.1-39.1
CD-9 Mccain 61.2-37.7
CD-10 Mccain 57.4-41.3
CD-11 Obama 60.7-38.3
CD-12 Mccain 60.9-37.9
CD-13 Obama 59.3-39.6
CD-14 Obama 59.7-39.3
CD-15 Obama 60.5-38.3
CD-16 Obama 53.4-45.4
CD-17 Mccain 60.5-38.5
CD-18 Mccain 57.8-41.1

It's a ruthless Dem gerrymander just in case it's not clear. Though it's not good enough for Torie, apparently.

[Sbane]

Close up of Philly.

[Torie]

13 Dem CD's, all at least 58% Obama. I win sbane.  

And PA-16 still goes to Reading - Reading is just appended to a different landscape.   And isn't PA-13 nice and compact?  LOL. Oh, PA-03 is "only" 56.6% Obama. My bad. It could potentially be shoved up about half a point by thinning out the snakes, and elongated the one jutting towards Pittsburg to pick up a few precincts there, but that is about it. PA-11 is 59.1% Obama, so it could give up half a point. Of course, in an uber GOP wave, the Dems would lose most everything, but PA-01 and PA-02. They are the only two CD over 60% Obama (PA-01 is 62.2% Obama), with PA-02 still majority black VAP, so in a GOP tsunami, PA-02 will hold no matter what.

[Sbane]

So there is only one Black seat? With one black seat, I could do that too.

You got that killer instinct though. I mean Philly to rural areas north of Allentown lol. And your 1st almost looks discontinuous.

[Keystone Phil]

Torie, your light green Bucks county district that snakes from lower Bucks to upper Bucks is certainly interesting. 

Which number is the light blue one that makes up most of Bucks county then weaves its way through Northeast Philly into North Philly? What are the Obama-McCain numbers, too? Surely an Obama district since you picked up North Philly. That district, along with the other Bucks district, would certainly be one of the more polarized districts in the state (and the country) considering the demographics.

[Torie]

Torie, your light green Bucks county district that snakes from lower Bucks to upper Bucks is certainly interesting.  

Which number is the light blue one that makes up most of Bucks county then weaves its way through Northeast Philly into North Philly? What are the Obama-McCain numbers, too? Surely an Obama district since you picked up North Philly. That district, along with the other Bucks district, would certainly be one of the more polarized districts in the state (and the country) considering the demographics.

Phil, the numbers have not changed for the light blue (cyan), and lime green CD's, PA-08 and PA-15 respectively. The population is off a tad for PA-08 (and PA-10), but for this fun little exercise it was just too much work to fix it, since it would require minor shifts in 4 CD's to get it done. Do you like the lines in my PA-03 CD?

[Keystone Phil]

Torie, your light green Bucks county district that snakes from lower Bucks to upper Bucks is certainly interesting.  

Which number is the light blue one that makes up most of Bucks county then weaves its way through Northeast Philly into North Philly? What are the Obama-McCain numbers, too? Surely an Obama district since you picked up North Philly. That district, along with the other Bucks district, would certainly be one of the more polarized districts in the state (and the country) considering the demographics.

Phil, the numbers have not changed for the light blue (cyan), and lime green CD's, PA-08 and PA-15 respectively.

I didn't know how you were numbering them. Those numbers are brutal.

Which one is PA 3 on your map?

[Torie]

Torie, your light green Bucks county district that snakes from lower Bucks to upper Bucks is certainly interesting.  

Which number is the light blue one that makes up most of Bucks county then weaves its way through Northeast Philly into North Philly? What are the Obama-McCain numbers, too? Surely an Obama district since you picked up North Philly. That district, along with the other Bucks district, would certainly be one of the more polarized districts in the state (and the country) considering the demographics.

Phil, the numbers have not changed for the light blue (cyan), and lime green CD's, PA-08 and PA-15 respectively.

I didn't know how you were numbering them. Those numbers are brutal.

Which one is PA 3 on your map?

The Erie seat. I put up the population legend, so you can tell the numbers from the color code (except that I have two cyan CD's - Erie is the second one in addition to PA-08). The lines of PA-03 are my piece de resistance. It "should" probably jut some more into Pittsburg to up its Obama percentage a bit, while thinning the snake out to beautiful downtown Johnstown. It is still within reach of the Pubbies (barely), and we can't have that!  

[Keystone Phil]

Why are you doing such ridiculous Democratic gerrymanders? 

[Torie]

Why are you doing such ridiculous Democratic gerrymanders? 

It was because of a little bet that I made with Sbane, that his Dem gerry was for pussies. Mine is a man chop; his is for girly men.

[greenforest32]

Who controlled PA's redistricting in 2000? Did either party have a trifecta or was it divided?

[Torie]

Who controlled PA's redistricting in 2000? Did either party have a trifecta or was it divided?

The Pubs controlled it. They didn't do a very good job. They screwed up PA-13 and PA-17 - for starters.