Can Justin Trudeau win next election in Canada?

[Upper Canada Tory]

I think that in theory, Trudeau could actually win if he did a 180 on almost every single issue.

This may sound absurd, but the Liberal Party of Canada has (kind of) done this before - Jean Chretien was basically the opposite of Pierre Trudeau on many if not most issues, and this is kind of why the Liberals used to be able to remain in power for so long. They would sense where the wind is blowing and go in that direction. Similarly, Bonnie Crombie seems to be trying to do this in Ontario to some extent.

Now, Justin Trudeau is too ideological and stubborn to do this; his government is too attached to their failed immigration system (Marc Miller said he 'can't see a world' where he would reduce the 500K annual PR target), he also has too much contempt for his precedessors, even if they objectively made good decisions in some areas (blame Harper, blame Harper, blame Harper). The guy wouldn't even delay a carbon tax increase during an inflation crisis and an interest rate hike.

So, can Justin Trudeau win the next election in Canada? I think maybe the question should be, can Justin Trudeau exit his fantasies and start dealing with the real world? If so, then maybe there's a small chance he can.

[Upper Canada Tory]

I am very much a pragmatist, but do wonder slightly what the point of winning would be if you had to u-turn on literally everything to do so.

Trudeau may be more inclined to go down fighting, if that is the case.

Maybe you're right but then Trudeau's premiership will go down in history as a failed attempt to try to move the overton window. Trudeau could at least adapt to the electorate he is trying to win over. As recently as 2019, his targets regarding immigration, carbon tax, etc. were not nearly as 'ambitious' (as the Liberals like to call it) as they are now, which is why Trudeau was able to win that election. Trudeau has gone so far on some of these policies that the popularity of these policies has dropped significantly even in the last two years or so. Not to mention that times and circumstances have changed - in 2019 the cost of living crisis wasn't nearly as bad, etc. If you go too out of step with the electorate, don't expect them to re-elect you.

The other thing is, governments need to have a willingness to learn from their mistakes. Trudeau's government clearly doesn't.

[Upper Canada Tory]

I don't think any party is actually on board with 'Canada 100m' - the current immigration situation seems to be moreso as a result of carelessness of the feds rather than a deliberate long-term policy. Either way, the current immigration policy is becoming very unpopular, so it won't last very long. Any government that doesn't solve it is throwing their chances of getting re-elected down the toilet.

Regarding the Conservatives, Poilievre emphasizes the success of the old selective points based system we had under Harper & previous PMs, so I think he will fix the situation, but maybe I'm too hopeful.

[Upper Canada Tory]

I do wonder if a Trump victory might change things. If Trudeau can paint Poilievre as being cut from the same cloth as Trump, he could curb Poilievre's popularity. It's a huge hail Mary at this point, but it's the only way to move the needle at this point, I think.

I've seen maybe 4 minutes of Poilievre and he doesn't come across very Trumpy.  A bit snarky, but he doesn't seem as dumb as Trump, his thoughts are more focused.  It's very hard to listen to Trump speak because he's all over the place (probably why the dummies like him, they just wait to hear the code words then hoot and holler or boo and hiss depending on what code word the lead chimp said).  And snark is a good balance to whatever it is Trudeau does.

Well, their personas are entirely different, obviously. Trudeau would have to attack Skippy's policies as Trumpian. How he supported the convoy, how some of his MPs are against abortion, etc. Lots of fodder there. Anything illiberal Trump does, Trudeau can turn around and tell Canadians that PP is going to do the same thing here.

Of course, I'm grasping at straws here, but this is the only conceivable way of turning around this sinking ship, I think.

If this is the only strategy that the Liberals have, I don't think Trump-mongering will be very effective. Liberals did this to Harper in the 2006 election (saying that Harper = Bush 2.0 and so on), and failed.

People attribute their current economic difficulties to the Liberal government's economic policies (which is why things like the carbon tax, immigration, deficit spending in budgets, the government's record on housing have become so unpopular in the last little while) and I am not sure saying that 'Poilievre = scary right wing American boogeyman' will change that perception or at least convince people to ignore it.