Minnesota House Races

[Devout Centrist]

Remember when the Detroit Free Press nailed the 2016 results in Michigan?

Oh...wait...

[LimoLiberal]

Nolan and Peterson have survived far tougher environments why would they go down this year when they didn't in 2010/2014. 

Peterson is safe, but the Republicans have a real A-list recruit running against Nolan.

Nolan will lose by 4-8 points. He barely won in 2014, and the district is sprinting rightwards.

[Devout Centrist]

Nolan and Peterson have survived far tougher environments why would they go down this year when they didn't in 2010/2014. 

Peterson is safe, but the Republicans have a real A-list recruit running against Nolan.

Nolan will lose by 4-8 points. He barely won in 2014, and the district is sprinting rightwards.

Ah yes, sprinting rightwards. If we just ignore the fact that the district flipped to the Republicans in 2010, sure, why not?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Nolan and Peterson have survived far tougher environments why would they go down this year when they didn't in 2010/2014. 

Peterson is safe, but the Republicans have a real A-list recruit running against Nolan.

Nolan will lose by 4-8 points. He barely won in 2014, and the district is sprinting rightwards.

Nah, he'll probably win, but MN-8 is the only house seat the Democrats could realistically lose in 2018 at this point.

[YE]

If Trump is -2, then yes LimoLiberal is correct. More likely than not, it’s an outlier but we’ll see. Both blue and red avatars are overreacting.

[tmthforu94]

Nolan and Peterson have survived far tougher environments why would they go down this year when they didn't in 2010/2014. 

Peterson is safe, but the Republicans have a real A-list recruit running against Nolan.

Nolan will lose by 4-8 points. He barely won in 2014, and the district is sprinting rightwards.

Ah yes, sprinting rightwards. If we just ignore the fact that the district flipped to the Republicans in 2010, sure, why not?

Correct. It was considered a huge upset when Cravaack won, Obama won it easily in 2008 and then easily won it again in 2012. Trump won by 15% in 2016. The district has gone from a lean Democrat district in an open seat to a lean Republican seat. It will still be close because of incumbency and the national mood, but this is definitely the Republicans' best pickup chance.

[Virginiá]

What? How is the post moronic? If trump is actually -2 in Minnesota, then Democrats will surely lose a good chunk of the house races there.

I don't know if it was moronic, but it hardly deserves its own thread. If this poll came out and 3 months later we had like 4-5 other polls from other outfits that confirmed Trump had either a net-positive approval or at least neutral in Minnesota, then yes, you'd have a leg to stand on here. But that's not the case. If Trump is at 36 - 40% approval nationally, it's likely to be something similar in Minnesota (maybe a little better). In that case, no, most if not all of those Trump-district Democrats are not in real trouble.

And of course you shouldn't be surprised if people are quick to call you out on things like this. You spent months being a shameless concern troll for god knows what reason, and even if you really have changed, it's going to be a long time before people stop treating you like one.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Nolan and Peterson have survived far tougher environments why would they go down this year when they didn't in 2010/2014. 

Peterson is safe, but the Republicans have a real A-list recruit running against Nolan.

Are you talking about that county commissioner? That's not a particularly powerful office in Minnesota and most people don't even know who there's is. In fact I probably wouldn't have been able to tell you who mine was if she wasn't elected in a special election where I voted for her.

[Badger]

The succinct response to this is that individual polls can be outliers. This one had a sample size of 800, with a margin for error of 3.5 points. I'd need to see more polls like this before I believe it.

The Republicans picking up MN-1 wouldn't be surprising really.    If they don't win that seat it'd be a sign of a bad night for them.

MN-7 probably won't happen just due to the incumbent, and the same is probably true for MN-8 and also that seat isn't as hostile to Democrats as MN-1 is.

I believe these two posts combined provide the succinct answer you were looking for, LL.

[Gass3268]

After the results last night across the border in Wisconsin in the most Minnesotan like distinct, it’s safe to say this is a junk poll.

[Mr.Phips]

Nolan and Peterson have survived far tougher environments why would they go down this year when they didn't in 2010/2014. 

Nolans District unseated a different Democratic incumbent in 2010, and Nolan unseated the 2010 winner in 2012.

Oberstar was clearly asleep at the switch in 2010.  Had he recognized that his opponent had a chance, he almost certainly would have won.

[IceSpear]

Leave it to Atlas to flip out over a single outlier poll. Take some Xanax guys.

Also, this is SUSA, which overestimates Republicans in MN about as often as it underestimates them in KY. They had Obama only up 4 there right before the election...in 2008.