2018 New Brunswick election

[mileslunn]

In just under a year from now, New Brunswick goes to the polls.  While not as much polling as say in the Ontario election in June, there is some so we can get some trends.

Liberals:  Maintain a double digit lead in most polls although have fallen into the 40s while were in the 50s last year.  Approval rating of Brian Gallant is a bit over the map with some like Angus-Reid showing him sub 30 which would mean trouble, while others like CRA showing over 50% which would mean likely re-election.  In addition the Liberals tend to run up the margins in the Francophone parts so if the PCs and Liberals were tied in popular vote, the PCs would probably win more seats due to better voter efficiency.  Still I would say at this point the Liberals are the favourites, but no guarantee they will win.

PCs:  Trailing in the polls, but at least now in the 30s instead of 20s.  Also it seems in Atlantic Canada in recent provincial elections, the PCs have often gone up by 10% or more so a similar swing to what we saw in the recent Nova Scotia election would be enough for them to win.  I am guessing it is maybe voter confusion as the federal Tories still remain deeply unpopular due to the unpopularity of the Harper government, but the provincial Tories which are still your traditional Red Tories like most conservatives in Atlantic Canada so once the campaign gets under way and people see the provincial PCs are still Red Tories and have not swung to the right like their federal counterparts many traditional Tories return.  Still I think they have an uphill battle to win, but cannot be ruled out.  Also due to greater voter efficiency I think they have a better chance at winning the most seats than the popular vote.

Third Parties: NDP, Green, and People's Alliance aren't likely to win more than a seat or two so they will only matter if it's a nailbiter like BC was in which case they may form the balance of power but with both the Liberals and PCs being fairly centrist I suspect whichever party wins the most seats will get to form the government.  I would be shocked if the second place one gets propped up like the NDP in BC is.

Any thoughts?

[mileslunn]

I think the Greens, People's Alliance, and NDP may each win a seat or two, but doubt either is in the position to go much beyond.  In New Brunswick the NDP has always been a continuous third party and never gone much beyond a seat thus my skepticism.  That being said if super close a minority is always possible albeit very unlikely.  On the political spectrum the People's Alliance seems to lean the right while NDP and Greens to the left but with the PCs being Red Tories and Liberals being more centrist than progressive the two parties don't seem that far apart on the political spectrum unlike in other provinces. 

[mileslunn]

Keep in mind that the most successful "third party" in recent NB history was the Confederation of Regions, who got 21% and 8 seats in 1991, good enough for Official Opposition.  (They lost them all in 1995.  Though not as aggressively anti-bilingual, the People's Alliance *might* be considered as something of a successor.)

Also re the NDP, ever since the 90s Alexa leadership they seem to have been stronger federally than provincially--they actually won *two* NB seats in 1997, and IIRC didn't sink below 15% in any NB riding in 2011, and the Yvon Godin "Bloc Acadien" effect was still evident in 2015 (though not enough to win seats)

Good point and you are right the NDP did do somewhat better federally and in fact got 30% in the 2011 election in New Brunswick, but for whatever reason they have never managed to replicate that provincially.  As for COR, it seems the bilingualism issue has died down a bit and most have returned to the PCs although interestingly enough Mainstreet which showed the Liberals 20 points ahead showed them only 3 points ahead amongst Anglophones so there could be a strong linguistic divide in voting patterns.

[mileslunn]

He's very much a "fiscal responsibility" guy, which put him in hot water with the public sector unions as finance minister. He wanted to do a straight austerity budget in 2011 but Alward talked him out of it.

Here's a good writeup on him and his beliefs from the leadership race:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/blaine-hills-pc-leadership-1.3808866

What do you think the chances of are of the Liberals winning the popular vote but losing the election.  It seems that the Liberals have a massive lead amongst Francophone voters but amongst Anglophones it is much closer thus why I bring up the idea of the Liberals winning the popular vote but losing seat wise.  I think the PCs winning seat wise is a lot more doable than winning the popular vote although both are possible and more likely than not neither will happen.

[mileslunn]

Looks like a Liberal win is not a sure thing, although would be interested to see linguistic breakdowns.  If the Liberals are still running up the margins in Francophone areas, this might be enough for the PCs to pull off a win due to greater voter inefficiency.  Noticed in both PEI and New Brunswick, the Conservatives federally up slightly but still way behind the federal Liberals, however only 5-7% points below their provincial counterparts but weaker splits.  If it is 53% Liberal to 31% Conservative that would probably be enough for the Tories to narrowly win Tobique-Mactaquac, Fundy-Royal, and New Brunswick Southwest, while they will need to close the gap further to win Fredericton, Miramichi-Grand Lake, and Saint John-Rothesay.  The other four they are too far behind to have any realistic chance in 2019.  I do think the small business changes faced a greater backlash in Atlantic Canada though than in some other provinces.

Nonetheless I still think of the premiers facing elections next year, Gallant is probably in the best position.  Wynne is likely to lose, Couillard will face an uphill battle to hold his majority although still has a greater than even chance of winning a plurality of seats.  All three provincial elections next year involve Liberal governments so I think the Liberal dominance of provincial governments will be weakened next year, but doubt they will lose all three.  If you count the CAQ as conservative, it's possible but not likely the conservatives will sweep all three, although I think they should pick up at least one.  If they did win all three it would mean only PEI, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, and Yukon have Liberal governments and population wise that is less than what live in provinces with NDP governments (BC and Alberta).  If the Tories or their equivalent win all three that would mean you would go from having only 6% of Canadians living in provinces with conservative governments to over 2/3 and probably jumping to over 75% the next year as Alberta seems likely to swing rightward in 2019.

[mileslunn]

This can't be....can it?

http://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/media_advisories/media_advisory.2017.10.1361.html

Maybe he should talk to Theresa May or David Peterson or anyone who worked with the late Jim Prentice.  Each of them called early elections opportunisticly and all lost or did much worse than expected in the case of Theresa May who should have been able to beat hard left Jeremy Corbyn in a landslide but barely scraped by.

[mileslunn]

I've heard he might be proroguing as there is expected to be a throne speech on Tuesday so that is a way to reset the government's agenda.

[mileslunn]

If he calls an election, expect an NDP government

Doubt it, but its true early opportunistic elections have produced NDP governments in places no one thought, i.e. Ontario in 1990 and Alberta in 2015.  Also across the pond Britain almost got a Labour government despite the fact they started with a 20 point deficit in the polls (I don't think they've ever a campaign with that big a deficit in the polls).  If anything I think an early call would probably help the PCs who are within striking distance of the Liberals if you believe the most recent MQO poll.

[mileslunn]

Also, why would Gallant want an election? He doesn't exactly have a massive lead, and the federal party is getting egg on their face right now.

Over tax changes or Energy East Pipeline or both?  I've heard the cancellation of the Energy East Pipeline is going over well in New Brunswick.  Also the small business tax changes apparently faced more of a backlash in Atlantic Canada than most of the country.  My understanding is business ownership tends to be higher in smaller communities than large ones and in most parts of the country that is a non-issue as rural areas generally vote Tory elsewhere, but in Atlantic Canada they are quite rural yet go Liberal.

[mileslunn]

Certainly using the past election, this would mean a PC majority as the PC vote is more efficient.  Liberals tend to win by much bigger margins in the Francophone portions while PCs win Anglophone areas (2/3 of the province) by narrower margins so more efficient.  Still polls are a bit all over the place so probably need to see a few more to see if this a trend or outlier.  I did run Mainstreet's federal numbers in a simulator and despite the 19 point Liberal lead in Atlantic Canada (I suspect it is a big tighter in New Brunswick as Tories always do better there than other Atlantic provinces, but Liberals still probably ahead) and it showed 6 Tories (Tobique-Mactaquac, New Brunswick Southwest, Fundy-Royal, Miramichi-Grand Lake, Saint John-Rothesay, and Fredericton) so even federally its possible Liberals could win New Brunswick by 10 points yet only win 4 seats to Tories 6 seats if you apply a uniform swing.  Oddly enough Bernard Lord in 2006 won the popular vote yet lost the election, but it seems since him, PC support has cratered in Francophone areas, but held up in Anglophone areas thus the difference.

[mileslunn]

Why are polling firms coming out with such differing numbers for Provincial elections these days?  I guess the Quebec numbers are fairly consistent between the firms but Ontario and New Brunswick are very different.  There was also the Calgary Mayoral election last year with wildly divergent numbers.

For Ontario, Campaign research seems to be the outlier.  Ipsos is a bit off but too much and Innovative research as well as Nanos fairly close.  I find methodology is the biggest reason.

PCs strongest with IVR; CATI somewhere in between while weakest with online polls.

Liberals do best with CATI and online polls while weakest with IVR

NDP do best with IVR and online polls while worst with CATI.

In the case of New Brunswick, Mainstreet's poll last year closely matches Corporate Research while their more recent is similar to the last MQO research which is out again with another one this Thursday.  I think the volatility in New Brunswick is more less philosophical differences between two main parties.  The PCs are still very much your Red Tory types similar to the old PCs federally thus they have a similar base to the federal Tories, but much wider appeal amongst swing voters than the federal Tories do.  The Liberals are more centrist like your Chretien/Martin types as opposed to progressive like Trudeau so again its quite easy to swing between the two of them whereas federally the ideological differences are wide enough you won't see as big a swing. 

Same reason swings between Democrats and Republicans in the US are much weaker than in the past and why volatility in British polls is much less than a decade ago when philosophical differences were smaller.

[mileslunn]

MQO is out with a poll that for the first time shows the PCs in the lead.  Whether this a trend or a rogue poll we will have to see since if PCs win this would be the third one term government in a row.  Mainstreet research also shows it close by Liberals still slightly ahead but due to how busy they are on the Ontario front they haven't released the full details.  Also this poll shows the federal Tories ahead in New Brunswick too.

Provincial

PC 43%
Liberal 35%
Green 11%
NDP 7%

44% still undecided so obviously a strong potential for the numbers to shift significantly between now and September 24th.

Federal

Conservatives 44%
Liberals 37%
Greens 10%
NDP 7%

Considering how federal and provincial numbers are almost identical I wonder if there is some confusion as this rarely happens, the question is which is causing it.

[mileslunn]

In terms of federal ridings in NB, I think it sort of breaks down like this:

Tobique-Mactaquac, Fundy-Royal, and New Brunswick Southwest: Those are traditionally safe Tory ridings so as long as they don't screw up badly should regain those, although it's possible Liberals might hold them like Andy Savoy did in 2004 if the Liberal incumbent is personally popular.

Miramichi-Grand Lake, Fredericton, and Saint John-Rothesay: Those are probably toss ups as the moment so too early to say which way they will go.

Madawaska-Restigouche: with how badly Tories have done amongst NB Francophones should stay Liberal unless a blue wave sweeps Quebec in which you might get some spillover.

Moncton-Riverview-Diepe: safe liberal, only winneable if there a strong splits on the left.

Beausjour and Acadie-Bahturst: Easy liberal win but NDP could pick up latter if they get the right candidate.

[mileslunn]

That was more just in general as numbers will likely shift between now and next federal election. If 44-37 is correct it would probably net 6 or 7 seats for the Conservatives.

[mileslunn]

Dominic Cardy, after denying for months he'd be running as a PC candidate, was kind of forced into running in Fredericton West-Hanwell - the same seat he contested for the NDP 4 years ago. The current MLA Brian Macdonald abruptly quit a few weeks back. Rumour is he'll be trying for the CPC nomination in 2019.

http://country94.ca/news/437706121/dominic-cardy-wants-be-pc-candidate-fredericton-west-hanwell

Not surprised, he endorsed Maxime Bernier for Conservative leader federally and run on a rather right leaning NDP platform in 2014, so seems PCs as opposed to NDP are a better fit for him.

[mileslunn]

Mainstreet is out with a poll and shows a tight race although due to voter efficiency PCs would probably win if the numbers hold up.  Also seems a strong age gap which bodes well for the PCs.  Off course those numbers could easily change during the campaign.

PC 39.4%
Liberal 38.1%
Green 8.9%
NDP 6.6%
Other 6.9% (I suspect most of that is People's Alliance which wasn't included)

[mileslunn]

Is any NB government going to win two terms again at this rate? Graham, Alward and now Gallant all look to get bounced...

It's still close enough Gallant might eke out a win.  I suspect eventually voters will get tired of continuously turfing governments nonetheless as long as the economy is stagnant it might continue to happen.  Perhaps this will encourage some government to be bold and take risks as the status quo obviously is not working so whatever short term backlash, maybe taking a risk on something different is worth it as I've found especially in Atlantic Canada politicians tend to be risk averse so that might change this.

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick NDP have now nominated 16 candidates.  At the rate they're going they should have candidates in all 49 ridings by the time of the 2022 election.

I suspect if they cannot find enough, the leader will just appoint several.  The danger with this though is little time to vet so if they do by chance get any momentum, real risk they will have several nutty candidates that might scare people away.  By contrast if you have your nominations far enough in advance, you can properly vet candidates and weed out anyone that might cause trouble.

[mileslunn]

Is there any chance of the NBNDP "pulling a Green" and focussing upon the leader's seat instead?  After all, Elizabeth Weir endured for years (and with respect) as the party's sole legislative representative...

I believe the leader is running in Saint John Harbour which is probably the most NDP friendly riding in the province so certainly possible.  Heck maybe even the People's Alliance leader will win his riding although skeptical.

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick election has been called off due to lack of interest on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum.    (Just kidding, about it being called off, that is.)

Might be more appropriate for the Alberta election, you know as the campaign starts not long after April 1st. Still got a little over 7 months until that day

[mileslunn]

New Brunswick election has been called off due to lack of interest on Dave Leip's Atlas Forum.    (Just kidding, about it being called off, that is.)

Might be more appropriate for the Alberta election, you know as the campaign starts not long after April 1st. Still got a little over 7 months until that day

Well, where is the 24/7 coverage of the New Brunswick election that I desire then?

Unfortunately not a lot of media coverage, but once party announcements perhaps.  Also very little polling either although I suspect on September 23rd you will have a few polls in the field to try and claim bragging rights.

[mileslunn]

People's Alliance seems to be gaining some momentum.  If Forum or Leger or correct this could be a case where split on the right lets the Liberals win.  If you are Maxime Bernier you probably are liking this while for Andrew Scheer quite worried.

[mileslunn]

Looking like a minority could be a possibility. A 4-5 point Liberal lead could put them close to the PCs in seat count (the PCs have a seat advantage it seems, with the Liberal vote so concentrated in Franco ridings), and the Greens+PANB will likely win at least 2 seats put together.

My guess is in a minority parliament, Greens and NDP (if they win a seat) would back the Liberals whereas People's Alliance would back the PC's so if Liberals + NDP + Greens is over 24, Gallant remains premier, if PCs + PANB is over 24 seats, then Blaine Higgs becomes premier and PC's form government.

[mileslunn]

CTV debate on Thursday. NDP and PANB not invited.

Booo

That probably will help both PCs and Liberals in terms of numbers but not seats.  A weaker NDP should benefit the Liberals while weaker PANB should benefit the PCs.

[mileslunn]

The NDP is at rock bottom, there is no more room to hemorrhage to.

What about the PANB, could they fall further.  I would tend to think that would benefit the PCs although being a populist party as opposed to establishment things don't always follow the left/right spectrum, you do get some crossover.  Your thoughts?