2020 Texas Redistricting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

The congressional map? What else could I be talking about?

Yes I know that, I just don't know what your point is with regard to the 25-13 map.

[Brittain33]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

The congressional map? What else could I be talking about?

Yes I know that, I just don't know what your point is with regard to the 25-13 map.

He’s saying that based on the Senate map, Republicans are likely to preserve the Congressional fajitas rather than try to wring another Republican seat out of the RGV, so that means Democrats likely have a floor of 13.

[_.]

Wow, it's insane how large Texas Senate seats are. Each represents nearly a Million people!

Are there plans to expand it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

The congressional map? What else could I be talking about?

Yes I know that, I just don't know what your point is with regard to the 25-13 map.

He’s saying that based on the Senate map, Republicans are likely to preserve the Congressional fajitas rather than try to wring another Republican seat out of the RGV, so that means Democrats likely have a floor of 13.

I don't think it's necessarily 13 (haven't gave that much thought to the question) but it is undeniable that preserving the RGV fajitas is a net positive for Democrats in pure partisanship terms.

[Torie]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

The congressional map? What else could I be talking about?

Yes I know that, I just don't know what your point is with regard to the 25-13 map.

He’s saying that based on the Senate map, Republicans are likely to preserve the Congressional fajitas rather than try to wring another Republican seat out of the RGV, so that means Democrats likely have a floor of 13.

I don't think it's necessarily 13 (haven't gave that much thought to the question) but it is undeniable that preserving the RGV fajitas is a net positive for Democrats in pure partisanship terms.

Doesn't that depend on what is in the fajitas?

[Brittain33]

snip

At the very least there are few universes in which Rs do fajitas for one set of maps and not another. And the fajitas existing ensures a certain seat floor for Democrats.

I have literally no idea what you're talking about.

The congressional map? What else could I be talking about?

Yes I know that, I just don't know what your point is with regard to the 25-13 map.

He’s saying that based on the Senate map, Republicans are likely to preserve the Congressional fajitas rather than try to wring another Republican seat out of the RGV, so that means Democrats likely have a floor of 13.

I don't think it's necessarily 13 (haven't gave that much thought to the question) but it is undeniable that preserving the RGV fajitas is a net positive for Democrats in pure partisanship terms.

Doesn't that depend on what is in the fajitas?

True, but the TX Senate fajitas are all Dem performing districts.

[Skill and Chance]

Here's a clue of how precise this map was made -

Districts 2, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 17, 18, 24, and 25 are ALL within 39.9% to 43.3% Biden 2020.   A top to bottom margin of only 3.4%.   

Twelve districts total, all of them in and around the four major metros.

So this likely holds for the decade, but it would probably be an instant Dem supermajority after a blowout midterm.  Interesting.

[Non Swing Voter]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

[Skill and Chance]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Goes to show that public pressure for cleaner maps works in most places, most of the time.  So far, the really aggressive stuff is limited to the state legislatures. 

[Non Swing Voter]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Goes to show that public pressure for cleaner maps works in most places, most of the time.  So far, the really aggressive stuff is limited to the state legislatures. 

You'd think it would be hard to gerrymander state legislatures too, But I guess not.  What I mean is, if you have large rural areas it's kind of hard to do "fajitas" when the population of the districts is so low.  The GOP's suburban coalition of 2010 made it much easier for them to gerrymander than their rural/exurban coalition of 2020.  If Dems had power they could actually do a lot of damage in redistricting. 

[Brittain33]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

[Non Swing Voter]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

Yeah, I am most worried about FL.  But wouldn't Dems just go back to the Courts in NC?  I suppose that process might take too long to save them in 2022 though. 

I think worst case scenario:

GOP +3 in FL
NC +2 in NC

They do have a few very weak incumbents in FL to protect.

[Brittain33]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

Yeah, I am most worried about FL.  But wouldn't Dems just go back to the Courts in NC?  I suppose that process might take too long to save them in 2022 though. 

I think worst case scenario:

GOP +3 in FL
NC +2 in NC

They do have a few very weak incumbents in FL to protect.

I think the courts are going to be tipping R or have tipped R in NC... I don't know the details but I think Rs have a 1-seat majority now.

[Non Swing Voter]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

Yeah, I am most worried about FL.  But wouldn't Dems just go back to the Courts in NC?  I suppose that process might take too long to save them in 2022 though. 

I think worst case scenario:

GOP +3 in FL
NC +2 in NC

They do have a few very weak incumbents in FL to protect.

I think the courts are going to be tipping R or have tipped R in NC... I don't know the details but I think Rs have a 1-seat majority now.

that sucks.  Good thing there is Dem gov. for other issues at least, otherwise there'd probably;ly be completely unchecked GOP insanity there.

[Skill and Chance]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Goes to show that public pressure for cleaner maps works in most places, most of the time.  So far, the really aggressive stuff is limited to the state legislatures. 

You'd think it would be hard to gerrymander state legislatures too, But I guess not.  What I mean is, if you have large rural areas it's kind of hard to do "fajitas" when the population of the districts is so low.  The GOP's suburban coalition of 2010 made it much easier for them to gerrymander than their rural/exurban coalition of 2020.  If Dems had power they could actually do a lot of damage in redistricting. 

There is a dramatic geographic bias in favor of Democrats in Texas.  Beto won a 76/74 majority of the state house seats in 2018, and on a court drawn map he likely wins 80 or more while losing statewide.

Due to a peculiarity of the Texas state constitution, it is possible to control, not just block, the state legislative redistricting process by winning only statewide offices.  If the governor vetoes the legislature's proposals, it goes to a commission of the LG, AG, Comptroller, Land Commissioner, and the Speaker of the House to draw the maps by majority vote.  So if the out party wins the governorship and at least 3 of those 4 row offices in the redistricting year, they get to gerrymander against the majority party in the state legislature.  Republicans did this in 2001-02.  This process doesn't apply to the congressional map, but it can be redrawn mid-decade if the legislature flips, as Republicans did in 2003-04.

I personally doubt that Texas is actually going to turn into a left-leaning state, but if 2030 is a Dem midterm wave, it's entirely possible they could get to draw the 2030's legislative maps.  

[lfromnj]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

Yeah, I am most worried about FL.  But wouldn't Dems just go back to the Courts in NC?  I suppose that process might take too long to save them in 2022 though. 

I think worst case scenario:

GOP +3 in FL
NC +2 in NC

They do have a few very weak incumbents in FL to protect.

I think the courts are going to be tipping R or have tipped R in NC... I don't know the details but I think Rs have a 1-seat majority now.

Rs control the appeals court which flipped in 2020. The Supreme Court is now barely D controlled but the Chief justice is  an R who gets to choose the court of appeals panels.

[Skill and Chance]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

Yeah, I am most worried about FL.  But wouldn't Dems just go back to the Courts in NC?  I suppose that process might take too long to save them in 2022 though. 

I think worst case scenario:

GOP +3 in FL
NC +2 in NC

They do have a few very weak incumbents in FL to protect.

I think the courts are going to be tipping R or have tipped R in NC... I don't know the details but I think Rs have a 1-seat majority now.

Rs control the appeals court which flipped in 2020. The Supreme Court is now barely D controlled but the Chief justice is  an R who gets to choose the court of appeals panels.

I think the issue is that after a (likely pro-GOP because of the CJ choosing the panel) ruling at the appeals court level, this case wouldn't reach the NC Supreme Court until after the 2022 judicial elections.  3 of the 4 Dem seats are up in 2022, so Dems would have to hold all of them to strike down the map in 2023.  They lost all of the seats that were up in 2020, so this will be hard to say the least.

[lfromnj]

Well fajitas aside, the main point is that the same analysts (Cook) who originally said redistricting could be brutal for Dems seem to be backing off in a major way. 

Indiana = no net gain

Texas = Dems retain their seats and GOP adds 2

that's their current projection it seems.

And it's not surprising, when rural areas are shrinking everywhere and GOP incumbents want to be protected, they are going to need to put a lot of their gerrymandering into that. 

On the flip side, they are saying Dems could gain 4-5 seats in NY alone. 

Florida and NC are the two big prizes out there which can still deliver sizable advantages to Rs over the current court-mandated maps.

Yeah, I am most worried about FL.  But wouldn't Dems just go back to the Courts in NC?  I suppose that process might take too long to save them in 2022 though. 

I think worst case scenario:

GOP +3 in FL
NC +2 in NC

They do have a few very weak incumbents in FL to protect.

I think the courts are going to be tipping R or have tipped R in NC... I don't know the details but I think Rs have a 1-seat majority now.

Rs control the appeals court which flipped in 2020. The Supreme Court is now barely D controlled but the Chief justice is  an R who gets to choose the court of appeals panels.

I think the issue is that after a (likely pro-GOP because of the CJ choosing the panel) ruling at the appeals court level, this case wouldn't reach the NC Supreme Court until after the 2022 judicial elections.  3 of the 4 Dem seats are up in 2022, so Dems would have to hold all of them to strike down the map in 2023.  They lost all of the seats that were up in 2020, so this will be hard to say the least.

Yes the NC GOP did not appeal the case in 2019 which gives them much more time now after the case is initially filed.

[jimrtex]

State Senate map proposal -

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/plans2101  

https://dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Senate/14/PLANS2101

Looks like 2 D seats in Dallas, 3 in Houston, 1 in Austin, 2 in San Antonio, 1 in El Paso, and I "think" 3 RGV fajita strips?

12 D seats total,  but a lot of seats in Houston and Dallas along with SD-25 won't last the decade.

There is not enough population along the border for 5 districts.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

State Senate map proposal -

https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/plans2101 

https://dvr.capitol.texas.gov/Senate/14/PLANS2101

Looks like 2 D seats in Dallas, 3 in Houston, 1 in Austin, 2 in San Antonio, 1 in El Paso, and I "think" 3 RGV fajita strips?

12 D seats total,  but a lot of seats in Houston and Dallas along with SD-25 won't last the decade.

There is not enough population along the border for 5 districts.

Yeah, TX State Senate being just 31 members makes for a sizable difference.

[Skill and Chance]

It's interesting that they absolutely went to town on Houston, where they probably have the least to worry about, but then they drew that 25th district between San Antonio and Austin that could easily be Likely Dem by 2030.

[Torie]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Remember , in order for Dems to win the TX den under this map, all they gotta do is flip 4 GOP intended districts. The path of least resistance would probably come from some combination of 7, 8, 9, 10, 12 and 25. Not a guarantee by any means but certaintly possible if current trends continue and growth patterns continue

[Skill and Chance]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't think this fajita thing is where the action is  myself. The Pubs can snatch that seat on the Gulf (TX-34), without VRA risk, and presumably will. However, they need to give the Dems another Hispanic seat in Bexar. So it's all sound and fury signifying nothing to me, unless the Pubs do something to test the limits of the VRA. Whether the Dems get 12 or 13 seats depends on whether the Pubs are willing to go ugly (very ugly but legal), to snatch TX-07 away from the Dems in Houston. And that has nothing to do with fajita strips. I guess we will know soon what is in the heads of the TX Pubs.

I would say this map suggests they are going after TX-07 on the congressional map while leaving the same number of Hispanic Dem seats as last decade. 

It is definitely a plausible scenario, them going after TX-07. They'll almost certainly have to use TX-09 to take in Dem areas to undercut Lizzie Fletcher.