U.S. House Redistricting 2020: Nevada

[Devils30]

Here's a NV map that's road contiguous (barely). Wonder if Dems will try for a map like this that connects Reno with Las Vegas. This would be Clarke county county be split 4 ways. This map holds up on any DRA dataset; the closest Republicans come to winning any district is Attorney Gen 2018 where they come within 9 points of NV-4.

In 2020, this map is:

NV-1: Biden + 18.29
NV-2: Trump + 24.34
NV-3: Biden + 11.13
NV-4: Biden + 13.53

According to my calculations, on average Ds would win about 2.7 districts and Rs 1.3, giving the map a D + 26.37 bias

Not completely safe but these seats should generally be pretty solid. It's hard to see Republicans outright winning the Las Vegas metro area (Clarke County) anytime soon.

Despite Dem's massive geography advantage in the state, creating a true R pack is surprisingly difficult with only 4 districts; guess it really only works on maps with more districts. This is because the R pack has to take in swing suburbs in Henderson, NW Las Vegas, and around Reno/Carson City area

Dems need to push for something like this. No mercy with gerrymanders period.

[Devils30]

This map is playing with fire.  All you have to do is apply the VA/NJ swing and this is a Republican sweep next year.  On top of that, Las Vegas trended right in 2020 and they stranded left trending Reno in the GOP vote sink.    

Strategically, they should just pass a commission (with strong competitiveness/partisan balance criterion) while they still have control.  NV looks pretty gone in the long run like a lot of the old small state Dem machines.

NV is 45% white, it's only gone for Ds if they start crapping in the bed even worse with Hispanics. If they level-off the recent decline there it could potentially swing back a bit left.