U.S. House Redistricting 2020: Nevada

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Republican should argue for the creation of a hispanic VRA district in Clark County, and thereby prevent Democrats from cracking North Vegas to shore up the 3rd and 4th district. Though, while it would be difficult to get a majority hispanic VAP district, a 42-43 percent one is very doable. If Democrats are going to argue Florida’s 5th a 46 percent black district is protected then a 43 percent Vegas district might as well be,

First off, VRA doesn't protect opportunity seats.

Secondly, after playing on VRA for a while, I'm struggling to get a seat that cracks 40% Hispanic VAP.

I think it's unlikley a challenge will be put forwards and even less likely it suceeds.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here's a NV map that's road contiguous (barely). Wonder if Dems will try for a map like this that connects Reno with Las Vegas. This would be Clarke county county be split 4 ways. This map holds up on any DRA dataset; the closest Republicans come to winning any district is Attorney Gen 2018 where they come within 9 points of NV-4.

In 2020, this map is:

NV-1: Biden + 18.29
NV-2: Trump + 24.34
NV-3: Biden + 11.13
NV-4: Biden + 13.53

According to my calculations, on average Ds would win about 2.7 districts and Rs 1.3, giving the map a D + 26.37 bias

Not completely safe but these seats should generally be pretty solid. It's hard to see Republicans outright winning the Las Vegas metro area (Clarke County) anytime soon.

Despite Dem's massive geography advantage in the state, creating a true R pack is surprisingly difficult with only 4 districts; guess it really only works on maps with more districts. This is because the R pack has to take in swing suburbs in Henderson, NW Las Vegas, and around Reno/Carson City area

[ProgressiveModerate]

This map is slightly more favorable to Democrats than the current map. Does it draw out any Las Vegas incumbents?

I think embedded districts like that are illegal in NV

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1458129018545315851?s=20

Bruh I really wish Dems would've done a leg into Reno. This map has huge dummymander potential and doesn't create a very effective R pack.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I hate to say it but the GOP map is honestly better. At least it doesn't crack Las Vegas so egregiously.

Party not in power proposes a better map than the party in power.

Tbf that’s almost always the case these days

[ProgressiveModerate]

Slightly prettier but still huge dummymander potential

[ProgressiveModerate]

Why don't Dems do something like this? Really a Reno - Las Vegas district really isn't terribly ugly, especially compared to a lot of the other districts we've seen this cycle. In this map its Biden + 7.5, and left trending. NV-1 is minority coalition and Biden + 18 and NV-3 is Biden + 13 and a weaker minority coalition district. What's nice about Las Vegas geography for Dems is that the bluest parts of the county are shifting hardest right while the less blue/red parts are shifting left, meaning there's a good chance all 3 of these districts equalize in partisanship throughout the decade, if current trends roughly hold (big if). At the very least this map would be stronger than the proposed map, and isn't terribly ugly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The more I think about it, there's a decently strong case for a Hispanic seat in Las Vegas legally as a compact 46% VAP can be drawn and it would have a chance of being majority by the end of the decade. This wouldn't neccessarily even be a bad deal for Dems as it isn't much of a pack either due to low turnout and would offer them a safe D seat, which could be a good bet if Las Vegas continues to shift right.

Still doubt the map will face any legal consequences for now but I do think the case is stronger than a lot of people here give it credit for.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ba72de4-6e7c-41c4-88dc-b843d12bfb3e

Here's an example of what NV Dems could've done that would've been just as effective from a partisan standpoint but less weird.

Firstly, I don't understand why they couldn't just NV-02 a whole county district? Instead, they decided to do arbitrary splits of 4 different counties between districts 2 and 4.

Secondly, this Las Vegas config pretty effectively distributes Dem votes evenly across all 3 districts while abiding to city lines and only adding rural areas to District 4. District 1 essentially is Las Vegas proper, district 3 takes in Spring Valley, Enterprise, Paradise, and part of Henderson which helps keep the growing Asian population together and the district is almost a perfect square. District 4 takes in the rest of Clarke County and all the rural counties, taking in heavily Hispanic and Black communities in northern Las Vegas giving the seat a pretty stubborn D lean.

I don't think the current map will face any legal consequences, but Dems really do deserve what's coming to them if it does because the current map is unnecessarily weird and there were so many alternatives that would've been better on about every metric even and produced the same partisan breakdown

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gov. Lombardo has called for the creation of an independent redistricting commission in Nevada:
https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1617941809354936320?s=20

Unless approved by the voters, this is going absolutely nowhere.

Nevada can do constitutional amendments by initiative, but it has to pass twice in a row to take effect.   

Yep. I believe RCV narrowly passed in 2022 and if it succeeds again in 2024 (which I believe it's favored to), it'll become law.

Weird side question, but if Ds get legislative supermajorities, do they have the ability to block something?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gov. Lombardo has called for the creation of an independent redistricting commission in Nevada:
https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1617941809354936320?s=20

Unless approved by the voters, this is going absolutely nowhere.

Nevada can do constitutional amendments by initiative, but it has to pass twice in a row to take effect.   

Yep. I believe RCV narrowly passed in 2022 and if it succeeds again in 2024 (which I believe it's favored to), it'll become law.

Weird side question, but if Ds get legislative supermajorities, do they have the ability to block something?

They have no power to edit it, but they could propose a competing amendment.

Lol what if an Independent and an Anti-Independent commission amendment both pass on the same ballot? That'd be funny.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Gov. Lombardo has called for the creation of an independent redistricting commission in Nevada:
https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1617941809354936320?s=20

Unless approved by the voters, this is going absolutely nowhere.

Nevada can do constitutional amendments by initiative, but it has to pass twice in a row to take effect.   

Yep. I believe RCV narrowly passed in 2022 and if it succeeds again in 2024 (which I believe it's favored to), it'll become law.

Weird side question, but if Ds get legislative supermajorities, do they have the ability to block something?

They have no power to edit it, but they could propose a competing amendment.

Lol what if an Independent and an Anti-Independent commission amendment both pass on the same ballot? That'd be funny.

I believe precedence goes to the one that got a larger majority, but it's somewhat ambiguous.

The wisest thing in this case would be for Dems to propose an Ohio style "company commission" alternative rather than try to defend naked gerrymandering.

Lol. As shown above one can drawn just effective of a D gerrymander without County-Splitting and remaining true to city lines.

Ds are really lucky just how favorable Nevada geography is.