MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Webnicz]

Quist being from Kalispell, does anyone think Quist can win Flathead county?

[Webnicz]

Quist being from Kalispell , Does anyone think he can win in his conservative home of flathead county?

[Webnicz]

My Google Survey is complete.   The poll is available here, along with my weighting spreadsheet with weighted crosstabs.

573 total respondents were polled from May 21-23.  Of the 573, 385 chose a candidate.  The question asked was:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Weighted by Age and Sex (to the November 2014 CPS for actual voters) and Region (West vs. East), the Results were:

Quist 54%
Gianforte 39%
Wicks 7%

Or Quist +15.

Raw, it was Quist+14.  Simple Weighted by only sex and age, like we've done for other polls this cycle, it was Quist +16.

As usual for our Google Surveys, the poll showed a big East/West Divide.  Western Montanans (n=181) preferred Quist by 32 points (weighted by age, sex and region and raw).  Eastern Montanans (n=134) picked Gianforte by 4 (5 raw).

Recall that I've split Eastern and Western Montana this way in our Google Polling:


There is a gender gap, with men supporting Quist by 12 (weighted)/7 (raw), and women supporting Quist by 23 (weighted)/26 (raw).  Every age group except 45-54 year olds backed Quist.  And, as in other Google Polls, there is a huge Suburban/Rural gap, with suburban voters backing Quist by 24/21, and rurals only going Quist by 1/3.  Rural voters made up 37% of the weighted and raw samples.

More, perhaps, to come.  But this poll looks like as big an outlier as Gravis', unfortunately.  Average the two polls together, and we might be on to something.

Can Quist really win Flathead County

[Webnicz]

Can Montana actually afford to have a second special election? That was the big deal behind the mail in only ballot measure. If counties are in this serious of financial trouble,and Gianforte resigns(after winning the election) wouldn't Montana just let the seat remain vacant until '18?

[Webnicz]

I'm just interested in the Flathead county vote

[Webnicz]

Very disappointed quist underperformed in his home of Flathead