Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[lfromnj]

The Northern part of the improved for Walker, but not to the level he lost in the burbs. I might look at Walker's swing from 14-18 and population growth this decade by county. I'd be interested to see if there is any correlation.

Looks like some of that Trump WOW erosion was permanent. Baldwin's numbers in WOW were simply stunning as well. RIP hofoid.

Washington looks like it hold on for a while but Ozaukee will vote democrat statewide in a non landslide election by 2036 atleast.

[lfromnj]

Evers' veto would result in a court drawn map, just from a Federal Judge (Obama appointee) rather than the State Supreme Court.

What about the legislative maps?

Also, even if the court-drawn maps were from a court with a majority of conservatives, I think we'd probably get something fair. Is there any precedent for a court drawing a gerrymander for the dominant party because of a divided govt? And I don't mean the court basically taking the old map and making minimal changes as a remedial map, like Texas.

Yeah I don't see a court drawing a specifically gerrymandered map no matter the composition of it.

[lfromnj]

So which of these power grabs will be struck down? I'm pretty sure the AG stuff at least is unconstitutional.

It's up to the 4-3 conservative Supreme Court until at least 2020.

MI is 3-1-3 right?

[lfromnj]

https://www.wisn.com/article/wisconsin-supreme-court-brian-hagedorn-augustine-academy-gays/26343309

Well, looks like the Republicans picked the wrong wagon to hitch themselves to for the supreme court election.

In these random spring elections you want to get your base to turnout

[lfromnj]

Does WI ave a democratic counting bias?

No. Usually it's the the other way around. WOW reports first.

2011 WI Supreme court.

[lfromnj]

HAGEDORN almost looks like he has won Kenosha. This is not good for the Ds.

[lfromnj]

The results literally look like a typical Republican vs Democrat statewide election.

Uh dane is higher than normal due to woke #resistance liberals while Milwaukee is pretty bad for the D's coz minorities aren't as #resistance as woke white libs.

[lfromnj]

I think D's are slightly favored as even if the rest of the state is rural its still very white and white liberals still exist in rural areas and are more apt to turn out for a "non partisan" supreme court race than some inner city black man in Milwaukee.

[lfromnj]

im not calling the race but I was told that the D had this in the bag 1 hour ago when she was losing Kenosha by 5.(ik its -2 now)

[lfromnj]

im not calling the race but I was told that the D had this in the bag 1 hour ago when she was losing Kenosha by 5.(ik its -2 now)

Yeah, this race was never "over", even if Neubauer is probably still slightly favored. Or not.

I admit when I saw the milwaukee margin I was about to call it for Hagedorn for a half a sec and then I remembered #resistance demographics and that with Dallet The d's got more votes in dane than Milwaukee.