Wisconsin Megathread v2: Hagedorn vs. Neubauer

[Bidenworth2020]

Good news on Barrett dropping out, but I'm thinking it would consolidate the toxic Milwaukee vote for the unelectable Mitchell.

I appreciate you are at least a full-fledged troll now.

[Bidenworth2020]

Good news on Barrett dropping out, but I'm thinking it would consolidate the toxic Milwaukee vote for the unelectable Mitchell.

I appreciate you are at least a full-fledged troll now.

Hmm, you don't seem to realise that Milwaukee is the best bullet in the Wisconsin GOP arsenal. It's how Walker has dodged every attempt to unseat him to this date.

lol

[Bidenworth2020]

Good news on Barrett dropping out, but I'm thinking it would consolidate the toxic Milwaukee vote for the unelectable Mitchell.

I appreciate you are at least a full-fledged troll now.

Hmm, you don't seem to realise that Milwaukee is the best bullet in the Wisconsin GOP arsenal. It's how Walker has dodged every attempt to unseat him to this date.

lol

He’s not wrong, Dems would do better with someone not from Milwaukee. Madison would be fine but driftless would be better as a home base of appeal.

sure,I'd agree with that. but it is hardly "the best bullet in the Wisconsin GOP arsenal"

[Bidenworth2020]

evers doing a good job!

[Bidenworth2020]

Walker might win. The amount of potential ticketsplitters is just frightening!

I see someone is becoming a concern troll who can't stop wetting the bed

A concern troll? The polls show there may be a lot of ticketsplitters, particularly MU. I think Evers has a good path to victory at this point, but it is frightening how Baldwin can lead in the double digits in one poll while Evers is behind by 1 in that same poll. That IS my biggest fear in this race. My state can be surprising, you know.

I know my purpose for being on Atlas. I'm not a concern troll - just a scared voter in this political climate, ESPECIALLY an election involving Scott Walker. The man has been reelected THREE TIMES, so why shouldn't I be scared? If that makes me a concern troll like Hofoid or Limo, so be it! If I come off as such to anybody else on this forum, I'm sorry. I'll try hard not to from this point forward.

you arent a concern troll. any reasonable person should think this is tussup ,with a tilt to evers (IMO)

[Bidenworth2020]

Still nervous with Evers only up a little over 1000 votes though...

Now up 3000... so much left for both sides, but La Crosse and Dane are still holding onto a lot of votes, as is, apparently, city of MKE.

Yep, I think he's got this by about 1-1.5%.

nah, unfortunately he has way less votes to come in.

[Bidenworth2020]

Almost all of La Crosse County is out.

half of green bay is out.

[Bidenworth2020]

tony evers reminds me a ton of mark Dayton tbh... he will basically make Wisconsin a new Minnesota I hope!

[Bidenworth2020]

The GOP legislature knows that Evers is far left and is only being moderate to stay on their good side. However, declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets. The independents who voted for Evers will remember this come 2022. Declaring border security as a non-emergency is as partisan as it gets.

WI Dems should enjoy their one-term governor while they can. If Milwaukee continues to lose population, it'll get harder and harder for the D's to win statewide elections.

ever heard of a place called madison?

[Bidenworth2020]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

how about neubauer signs?

[Bidenworth2020]

I have seen several Hagedorn yard signs in rural Wisconsin and WOW.

how about neubauer signs?

I saw nothing but Neubauer signs in Wauwatosa when I visited Milwaukee this past week. I saw a handful of Neubauer signs in Mequon (which is slowly starting to vote D like the North Shore), but mostly Hagedorn signs there and in Brookfield when I visited.

See anything in driftless?

[Bidenworth2020]

how is turnout in republican areas?

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/amyreidreports/status/1113174609044623362

Is that good for Neubauer? Where in the state is that?

Dane county. Here are some numbers from 2016 and 2018.

2016 Pres-
62-31 clinton

2018 Gov-
67-30 evers

2018 senate-
71-28 baldwin

[Bidenworth2020]

Saw a tweet of a voter at Madison Ward 53 that said she was voter 837, which would put them at 68.7% of total 2018 turnout for that ward was last year with 4.5 hours left.

I was #132 when I voted in my Janesville ward at 1 p.m. I suppose that's because my ward is relatively small.

did you get your whole family to vote? That type of stuff is really important, as you know.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/amyreidreports/status/1113174609044623362

Is that good for Neubauer? Where in the state is that?

Dane county. Here are some numbers from 2016 and 2018.

2016 Pres-
62-31 clinton

2018 Gov-
67-30 evers

2018 senate-
71-28 baldwin

Actually Dane went for Clinton 71-23 in 2016, 75-23 for Evers and 78-22 for Baldwin in 2018.

I think the quoted numbers are just Sun Prairie

Ah. Sorry about that, PoliticalMasta!

To answer your question: I never need to remind my family to vote, thankfully. They all live in Dane County and are unionized Democrats.

Nice! Now I guess all we can do is hope, but these reports seem pretty darn good. Any reports in rural areas though?

[Bidenworth2020]

lets go neubauer!

[Bidenworth2020]

Ignore the concern troll, guys.

in all seriousness, i think she is gonna lose.

[Bidenworth2020]

Wow!

But now that’s the majority of the county. I’m not sure the rest will be enough to fest vote from elsewhere.

Still, with almost 100% of WOW counties reporting, Dane still having 33% to report is something for Lisa to feel good about.

Perhaps yeah. Still feeling on edge though.

nah, this is done. We literally have 23% out in dane vs. the entire northern half of the state.

[Bidenworth2020]

Wow!

But now that’s the majority of the county. I’m not sure the rest will be enough to fest vote from elsewhere.

Still, with almost 100% of WOW counties reporting, Dane still having 33% to report is something for Lisa to feel good about.

Perhaps yeah. Still feeling on edge though.

nah, this is done. We literally have 23% out in dane vs. the entire northern half of the state.

I hope your right

why? the implication is that hagedorn has won

[Bidenworth2020]

Definitely not a comfy lead but D's still have plenty of juice to squeeze out of Portage and La Crosse, some outstanding votes in Eau Claire and Dane, and a couple of small D-favorable counties in the Driftless and up North. If WOW hadn't already (nearly-) fully reported I'd feel like this was lost but honestly I feel okay right now.

hagedorn is way overperforming everywhere though.

[Bidenworth2020]

Definitely not a comfy lead but D's still have plenty of juice to squeeze out of Portage and La Crosse, some outstanding votes in Eau Claire and Dane, and a couple of small D-favorable counties in the Driftless and up North. If WOW hadn't already (nearly-) fully reported I'd feel like this was lost but honestly I feel okay right now.

hagedorn is way overperforming everywhere though.

More like Screnock underperformed. He lost by eight points. It's definitely possible for Hagedorn to overperform and come short especially considering turnout in Dane is up.

Marathon, Menominee, La Crosse and Outagamie hasn't come in yet. What would that mean

Outagamie and Marathon will be some R vote sinks, La Crosse will partially offset that, Menominee will be negligible.

I am comparing to trump/walker

[Bidenworth2020]

Statewide margin down to 3 with 55% in.

please explain to me how neubauer is going to win with all of dane and milwaukee in.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hagedorn won the race. It's over! Outagamie, as well know, tends to vote GOP. The Republicans were very motivated to vote this year, for whatever reason. Sorry, but I just can't see Neubauer winning anymore.

and to 7k she goes!