Will Ohio swing to Obama?

[LiberalJunkie]

From 2008 where he won by a 4.58% margin, will it swing to him?

[Skill and Chance]

I would say yes if he wins by his current polling margin.  It would be like 5.1% vs. 4.6%, though.  Keep in mind that most public polling had McCain up in OH until very late in the 2008 campaign. 

[Thomas D]

No. I think he'll win OH by about 3.5 %

[DrScholl]

Yes, polling currently suggest that. His performance in the Mahoning Valley will improve, so that will help his statewide number.

[© tweed]

relative to nationwide or in a vacuum?

[pbrower2a]

Ohio has already swung to President Obama. It could be a very quick call.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Yes, Obama is starting to hit 50% in Ohio and eclipsing it.  The Washington Post has him at 52% with a 56% approval rating.  Ohio has been looking good for Obama almost the entire campaign.  I think he wins it on election day with 52.5-53% of the vote.  Should be called by 8:15-8:30. 

[JFK-Democrat]

If Ohio is called early on Election Night the Republicans may lose the House since it will depress turnout!

[minionofmidas]

I was going to say "it does seem reasonably certain", but then I noticed I was thinking of what the Atlas calls "trend". As is, it's still likely but far less clear.

[Miles]

Today, The Fix moved OH from Tossup to Lean Obama. I think its very feasible that OH swings to Obama.

[Badger]

I would say yes if he wins by his current polling margin.  It would be like 5.1% vs. 4.6%, though.  Keep in mind that most public polling had McCain up in OH until very late in the 2008 campaign. 

No. I think he'll win OH by about 3.5 %

I can't decide which of these statements I agree with.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

Laughs and keeps opinion to self

[Likely Voter]

If swing means bigger margin than 2008 then no, but relative to the national avg, yes.