Democratic New York Primary results thread (polls close at 9pm ET)

[Fusionmunster]

If anyone interested Benchmark has a few isolated reports on turnout.

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/with_replies

[Fusionmunster]

16% under 30

[Fusionmunster]

21% of the Democratic electorate is black, vs. 16% in 2008.

31% Very Liberal according to MSNBC

16% under 30

As if on cue.

Ehh, I just wanted to join in on the fun.

[Fusionmunster]

From ABC:

Caution: Exit poll results this evening may change significantly after 9 p.m.

This is because polling places in 50 of the state’s counties – outside the New York City area and Buffalo – opened at noon. People in those counties with day jobs can’t vote until after work, so they won’t be included in early exit poll results.

We don’t know if this will change the post-9 p.m. exit poll data, but it could. So consider the data that are available from 5-9 p.m. as especially preliminary, and check back for updates.

I think most of us knew that but some of us are just trying to kill the remaining 4 hours.

[Fusionmunster]

60% see Hillary as honest and trustworthy, I think the same as Ohio.

[Fusionmunster]

60% see Hillary as honest and trustworthy, I think the same as Ohio.

How does that compare to other states?

In comparison, Hillary was seen as honest and trustworthy by 63% of Floridian democrats,  59% by Virginian democrats and 54% by Massachusetts democrats.  Just three states Hillary won by varying degrees.

[Fusionmunster]

60% see Hillary as honest and trustworthy, I think the same as Ohio.

How does that compare to other states?

It was 59% in Wisconsin IIRC.

It was 63% in Florida so...

[Fusionmunster]

MSNBC made that note that the first round of exit polls were almost exclusively from New York City.

Yeah, while not even coming close to NYC, Erie County alone has almost a million people.

[Fusionmunster]

MSNBC made that note that the first round of exit polls were almost exclusively from New York City.

Is that just the city proper, or the city plus the suburbs? If it's both, we could be in for a decently close result. Not saying Bernie will win, but at least it won't be embarrassing.

You say that but I thought the Wisconsin exit polls were pretty good for Hillary too. I mean, Bernie might do well but if the racial makeup and party id numbers hold, I think it could be a double digit win for Hillary.

[Fusionmunster]

These exit polls make no sense again.

[Fusionmunster]

Do we know if phone interviews statewide with early voters is in the current exit poll data? That'd provide at least some buffer against the data being entirely skewed.

I believe there's no early voting.

There is absentee voting though.

[Fusionmunster]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

I dont know, his Wisconsin top line leak was way off.

[Fusionmunster]

@ryangrim says 54-46 Clinton in exits

He's a HuffPost reporter that's posted some pretty accurate leaked exits in the past few contests

I dont know, his Wisconsin top line leak was way off.

He had:
Sanders 53 (actual 56)
Clinton 46 (43)

Cruz 47 (48)
Trump 35 (35)
Kasich 15 (14)

Not way off at all.

Oh, must have remembered wrong.

[Fusionmunster]

Why'd you post that again?

[Fusionmunster]

Drudge is reporting 54-46 Clinton.

Drudge probably saw the leak from Twitter, i'd wait for someone more reputable.

[Fusionmunster]

Did I just hear Brian Williams say that NBC will project both contests at 9:00?

Oh, well, thats something.

[Fusionmunster]

Benchmarks says the exit polls could be very wrong, anything to keep my hopes up.

[Fusionmunster]

Benchmark is saying the CNN exit polls were incredibly poor.

[Fusionmunster]

Is there any way the NYC/Long Island area can swing it back to 60%+ Clinton?

No, too many upstate counties out. Looks like my 57-43 prediction was spot on.

I thought it would be 58-42, hoping it holds.

With Nassau County still out, i reckon it might.

[Fusionmunster]

Is there any way the NYC/Long Island area can swing it back to 60%+ Clinton?

No, too many upstate counties out. Looks like my 57-43 prediction was spot on.

I thought it would be 58-42, hoping it holds.

With Nassau County still out, i reckon it might.

There are results on their county site. So they might already be accounted for.

I think i found what your talking about but it looks very incomplete.