Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Not a lot going on here recently, except the Salzburg-FPÖ presenting a new leadership team of 4 young people, who are all likely to succeed the interim party leader in the leadership election next year, who said he will retire in 2016 after the party split into two pieces earlier this year.

Which means Salzburg might get the youngest and only female FPÖ leader of any state next year with Marlene Svazek (23):

[Tender Branson]

Turns out our Islamic kindergartens are turning into breeding grounds for religious fundamentalism and extremism, because they are basically running under a Salafist-financed parallel structure to state kindergartens:

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[Tender Branson]

So, there's one guy in the government who's actually willing to work and do something and speak out about problems that exist and not ignoring everything like our "smiley-Chancellor" Faymann and his incompetent/neglecting cronies ...

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BTW, here's his 50-point plan for the integration of the 100.000s of asylum seekers in Austria in English:

http://www.bmeia.gv.at/fileadmin/user_upload/Zentrale/Integration/Publikationen/Integrationsplan_final_EN.pdf

Of course, Faymann and Co. already let his plan vanish in a drawer again - just not to work or do anything about the matter. Just ignore it and everything gets better by itself ...

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg:

After the FPÖ's troubles and party split, now the Team Stronach there is imploding (and pretty badly too).

This is important, because the TS is in the state government together with the ÖVP and Greens.

The Team Stronach has 3 MPs in the state parliament, of which one left the party recently and announced that he will vote with the ÖVP in the future, but technically remain "independent".

Also, the only state government member from the TS also quit the party.

This means that the current state government only has 19 of the 36 seats in parliament left and it is mostly depending on the former TS party switcher who became and Independent for the next 2.5 years until new elections are to take place. (The remaining 2 TS MPs have said they will continue to vote with the government, but both have a serious grudge against the 2 defecting ones and also to some extent against the Greens for traffic related reasons - so they might actually vote against the government at some point).

The FPÖ, while still licking its wounds from the party split earlier this year, already wants new elections.

The SPÖ, which is also still licking its wounds from the financial scandal in 2012/13, does not want new elections - nor does the government.

It remains to be seen if the government survives the next years, but even though it's shaky I think that Konrad (ex-TS) will be reliable enough to secure the majorities for them.

If there were new elections, the most likely (working) scenario would be ÖVP-FPÖ and the state ÖVP is not amused with an option like this.

http://derstandard.at/2000026681821/Eine-Zitterpartie-fuer-die-Salzburger-Landesregierung

The Team Stronach might get kicked out of the Salzburg state coalition (ÖVP-Greens-TS) on Monday, as Gov. Haslauer (ÖVP) has set a coalition meeting for that day.

www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/zerfall-und-zank-im-team-stronach-haslauer-stellt-die-koalitionsfrage-176531

[Tender Branson]

There's a mayoral by-election in Hohenems (Vorarlberg) on Dec. 20, which the FPÖ-candidate might win (according to a recent VN poll which showed a 6-point lead for Egger).

But now the SPÖ and Greens came out to endorse the ÖVP candidate, to prevent an FPÖ victory. Elections during Christmas are totally uncommon, which means turnout will be low (~60%). In the recent election there, the ÖVP candidate beat Egger by just 2% (51-49). So, everything is possible this time (pretty similar situation like in the French regional elections).

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg:

After the FPÖ's troubles and party split, now the Team Stronach there is imploding (and pretty badly too).

This is important, because the TS is in the state government together with the ÖVP and Greens.

The Team Stronach has 3 MPs in the state parliament, of which one left the party recently and announced that he will vote with the ÖVP in the future, but technically remain "independent".

Also, the only state government member from the TS also quit the party.

This means that the current state government only has 19 of the 36 seats in parliament left and it is mostly depending on the former TS party switcher who became and Independent for the next 2.5 years until new elections are to take place. (The remaining 2 TS MPs have said they will continue to vote with the government, but both have a serious grudge against the 2 defecting ones and also to some extent against the Greens for traffic related reasons - so they might actually vote against the government at some point).

The FPÖ, while still licking its wounds from the party split earlier this year, already wants new elections.

The SPÖ, which is also still licking its wounds from the financial scandal in 2012/13, does not want new elections - nor does the government.

It remains to be seen if the government survives the next years, but even though it's shaky I think that Konrad (ex-TS) will be reliable enough to secure the majorities for them.

If there were new elections, the most likely (working) scenario would be ÖVP-FPÖ and the state ÖVP is not amused with an option like this.

http://derstandard.at/2000026681821/Eine-Zitterpartie-fuer-die-Salzburger-Landesregierung

The Team Stronach might get kicked out of the Salzburg state coalition (ÖVP-Greens-TS) on Monday, as Gov. Haslauer (ÖVP) has set a coalition meeting for that day.

www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/zerfall-und-zank-im-team-stronach-haslauer-stellt-die-koalitionsfrage-176531

The Team Stronach got indeed kicked out of the state coalition today.

Salzburg is now governed by ÖVP-Greens (with 2 former TS coalition members absorbed into the ÖVP).

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4886906/Salzburg_OVP-und-Grune-werfen-Team-Stronach-aus-Koalition

[Tender Branson]

Independent presidential candidate Irmgard Griss is auditioning at the FPÖ headquarters today, where she's to speak about her presidential plans and positions on the issues.

In the last days, it became more and more unlikely though that the FPÖ will back her run - because her positions on Europe, immigration etc. are too centrist or center-left for the party.

[The Last Northerner]

How common are OVP-Grune coalitions? In many countries, they are more or less stalking horses or vassals of the main left party. Is Austria the exception?

[Cranberry]

How common are OVP-Grune coalitions? In many countries, they are more or less stalking horses or vassals of the main left party. Is Austria the exception?

There are currently three ÖVP-Grüne coalitions (Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg) and one SPÖ-ÖVP-Grüne coalition (Carinthia) on the state level. There used to be one more in Upper Austria, but it lost their majority in the elections in September. As can be seen from this, they are basically only existent in the West, which is partly due to the reason that the Greens are considered significantly more conservative in these areas. The Austrian Greens arose in the eighties from two smaller green parties (one, the ALÖ stemming from the left and largely former SPÖ supporters; while the other, the VGÖ being a party coming mainly from the ÖVP and more conservative side), and still today, the Greens in Austria in general, but particularly in the West, are considered a tad more conservative and a bit less leftist than in other European nations, which may be one of the reasons they are one of the strongest, if not the actually strongest, green parties in Europe.

[Tender Branson]

How common are OVP-Grune coalitions? In many countries, they are more or less stalking horses or vassals of the main left party. Is Austria the exception?

There are currently three ÖVP-Grüne coalitions (Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg) and one SPÖ-ÖVP-Grüne coalition (Carinthia) on the state level. There used to be one more in Upper Austria, but it lost their majority in the elections in September. As can be seen from this, they are basically only existent in the West, which is partly due to the reason that the Greens are considered significantly more conservative in these areas. The Austrian Greens arose in the eighties from two smaller green parties (one, the ALÖ stemming from the left and largely former SPÖ supporters; while the other, the VGÖ being a party coming mainly from the ÖVP and more conservative side), and still today, the Greens in Austria in general, but particularly in the West, are considered a tad more conservative and a bit less leftist than in other European nations, which may be one of the reasons they are one of the strongest, if not the actually strongest, green parties in Europe.

Which is of course also a reason why they are alienating some of their more centrist base voters (= people like me), with their ridiculous positions on asylum seekers/immigration and their moral-apostle-like "we need to save/import the whole world" attitude. No wonder the Greens made no polling gains in the recent years ... (don't get me wrong, I will still vote for them, but they are increasingly pissing off 10-30% of their potential voters).

[Cranberry]

How common are OVP-Grune coalitions? In many countries, they are more or less stalking horses or vassals of the main left party. Is Austria the exception?

There are currently three ÖVP-Grüne coalitions (Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg) and one SPÖ-ÖVP-Grüne coalition (Carinthia) on the state level. There used to be one more in Upper Austria, but it lost their majority in the elections in September. As can be seen from this, they are basically only existent in the West, which is partly due to the reason that the Greens are considered significantly more conservative in these areas. The Austrian Greens arose in the eighties from two smaller green parties (one, the ALÖ stemming from the left and largely former SPÖ supporters; while the other, the VGÖ being a party coming mainly from the ÖVP and more conservative side), and still today, the Greens in Austria in general, but particularly in the West, are considered a tad more conservative and a bit less leftist than in other European nations, which may be one of the reasons they are one of the strongest, if not the actually strongest, green parties in Europe.

Which is of course also a reason why they are alienating some of their more centrist base voters (= people like me), with their ridiculous positions on asylum seekers/immigration and their moral-apostle-like "we need to save/import the whole world" attitude. No wonder the Greens made no polling gains in the recent years ... (don't get me wrong, I will still vote for them, but they are increasingly pissing off 10-30% of their potential voters).

To be fair though, Tender, I have never met a Green voter under 40 that has views similar to you on certain issues. It is true that the Green Party of today certainly has moved to the left a bit, but their voting share is consistent, so it seems that they gain a "naive left-leftist" for every Tender

[Tender Branson]

How common are OVP-Grune coalitions? In many countries, they are more or less stalking horses or vassals of the main left party. Is Austria the exception?

There are currently three ÖVP-Grüne coalitions (Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg) and one SPÖ-ÖVP-Grüne coalition (Carinthia) on the state level. There used to be one more in Upper Austria, but it lost their majority in the elections in September. As can be seen from this, they are basically only existent in the West, which is partly due to the reason that the Greens are considered significantly more conservative in these areas. The Austrian Greens arose in the eighties from two smaller green parties (one, the ALÖ stemming from the left and largely former SPÖ supporters; while the other, the VGÖ being a party coming mainly from the ÖVP and more conservative side), and still today, the Greens in Austria in general, but particularly in the West, are considered a tad more conservative and a bit less leftist than in other European nations, which may be one of the reasons they are one of the strongest, if not the actually strongest, green parties in Europe.

Which is of course also a reason why they are alienating some of their more centrist base voters (= people like me), with their ridiculous positions on asylum seekers/immigration and their moral-apostle-like "we need to save/import the whole world" attitude. No wonder the Greens made no polling gains in the recent years ... (don't get me wrong, I will still vote for them, but they are increasingly pissing off 10-30% of their potential voters).

To be fair though, Tender, I have never met a Green voter under 40 that has views similar to you on certain issues. It is true that the Green Party of today certainly has moved to the left a bit, but their voting share is consistent, so it seems that they gain a "naive left-leftist" for every Tender

I know, because most Green voters like to follow the herd, instead of applying some critical thinking and common sense when it's needed - especially on immigration (+ immigrant crime) and welfare (abuse). Most Green party voters don't have a problem with it and neglect the problems (or even allowing them to become worse, while at the same time piling up debts like any good, incompetent Leftist), instead of tackling the problems with common sense policies. It would be better if the Greens would have more centrist people again and not naive/leftist hippies ...

[Tender Branson]

The Young FPÖ put a provocative banner on their Facebook page today, which mixes Christmas time with the asylum seekers:



"Josef and Maria instead of Burka and Scharia."

...

Also, I got the new "Economist" today in which they had a page or two about Far-Right parties in Europe and their rise (article is called "Europe's little Trumps" or something) and they managed not to mention the FPÖ even a single time (which is polling at 33% right now).

[Tender Branson]

Independent presidential candidate Irmgard Griss is auditioning at the FPÖ headquarters today, where she's to speak about her presidential plans and positions on the issues.

In the last days, it became more and more unlikely though that the FPÖ will back her run - because her positions on Europe, immigration etc. are too centrist or center-left for the party.

Griss spoke in front of the FPÖ's main committee (incl. Strache) today and answered questions about Islam, immigration, border controls, Europe etc. - and she gave mostly neutral answers (as in "I am a former judge and will obey the Constitution" or "Muslims who follow our values definitely belong in Austria", or "A country who gives up on securing its borders is giving itself up").



Strache remained open about backing her run and said that "the first female President in Austria would be a desirable step".

The FPÖ will decide in January about an endorsement or if they run their own candidate.

NEOS will decide on backing Griss on Thursday.

[Tender Branson]

Griss also had dinner with Frank Stronach recently and they talked about her presidential run.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/praesidentenwahl-stronach-wollte-griss-koedern/167.858.806

But Stronach presented his own plans for how a future President should act and Griss didn't like his plans at all ... so, probably no endorsement for her from the Team Stronach.

Not that an endorsement by a party that is only polling 1% anymore matters anyway ...

Still, an FPÖ+NEOS endorsement would create at least a pool of 40% of the Austrian electorate for her, plus additional support from pissed-off SPÖVP voters.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

Griss is also a strong backer of gay marriage and adoption rights.

http://kurier.at/meinung/blogs/gespraechsstoff/hofburg-wahlkampf-was-frau-griss-und-herrn-strache-verbindet/159.726.685

[Tender Branson]

New Salzburg poll:

42% ÖVP (+13%)
21% SPÖ (-3%)
17% FPÖ/FPS (n.c.)
14% Greens (-6%)
  3% NEOS (+3%)
  1% TS (-7%)
  2% Others (n.c.)

Interesting:

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It seems the pollster did not include an FPS option in the poll, but tried to measure their support if some person volunteered "FPS" (which basically nobody did). The pollster says that people do not differentiate really between the FPÖ and FPS so far.

http://www.meinbezirk.at/salzburg-stadt/politik/salzburg-die-oevp-profitiert-vom-kuschelkurs-d1579306.html

Anyway, strange poll results (= ÖVP too high, FPÖ too low) from an otherwise really good pollster.

[DavidB.]

Also, I got the new "Economist" today in which they had a page or two about Far-Right parties in Europe and their rise (article is called "Europe's little Trumps" or something) and they managed not to mention the FPÖ even a single time (which is polling at 33% right now).

So glad my country is represented in that article Lol.

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss (Indy) is now officially running for President. She announced her candidacy today in a video message. Also today, NEOS announced that they will not back her independent run, but that they like her and her views and wish her well. Also, in an interview today FPÖ general secretary Kickl said that while they like Griss, her positions on several issues are miles apart from those of the FPÖ (which basically means that they are not going to endorse her).

She's also the first candidate in the race for President, who will be newly elected in April. SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ and Greens will all present their candidates in January. It's unclear if NEOS and TS will present their own candidates, endorse someone or sit this (costly) election out.

http://derstandard.at/2000027683882/Griss-will-am-am-Freitag-Entscheidung-bekannt-geben

[Tender Branson]

First poll in a month (Gallup, conducted Dec. 15-17):

Federal Elections

33% FPÖ (+12.5)
23% SPÖ (-4.0)
21% ÖVP (-3.0)
12% Greens (-0.5)
  8% NEOS (+3.0)
  3% Others (-8.0)

2016 President

31% Irmgard Griss (Indy)
29% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
19% Erwin Pröll (ÖVP)
12% Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
  9% Josef Moser (FPÖ)

"Are you for a general upper limit/cap on how many asylum seekers/migrants can enter Austria ?"

69% Yes
22% No

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Koalition-schwaechelt-FPOe-meilenweit-vorn/216486360

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

what elections are in 2016, again?

[Tender Branson]

what elections are in 2016, again?

The Presidential elections in April (see my posts above) and the Tyrol municipal elections (which nobody really cares about, I guess not even Cranberry - who lives there - because the ÖVP and affiliated lists will win anyway).

[Tender Branson]

Austrians remain strongly opposed to Turkish EU-membership, according to a new OGM poll:

12% in favour
81% opposed

http://www.ogm.at/2015/12/bevoelkerung-gegen-eu-beitritt-der-tuerkei

Also, Austrians think that worries about climate change and its effects are justified:

66% justified
32% concerns are overblown

http://www.ogm.at/2015/12/skepsis-gegenueber-folgen-des-klimawandels-steigt

[Tender Branson]

Turns out our Islamic kindergartens are turning into breeding grounds for religious fundamentalism and extremism, because they are basically running under a Salafist-financed parallel structure to state kindergartens.

New Profil poll on this issue:

"Do you favour or oppose stricter controls/oversight of Muslim kindergartens in Austria ?"

62% Favour
33% Oppose

"Do you agree or disagree with this statement: 'Religion has no place in kindergartens.' ?"

51% Agree
48% Disagree

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-kontrollen-kindergaerten-6161338

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, the ÖVP has now settled on Erwin Pröll (Governor of Lower Austria) as their Presidential candidate and he has agreed.

Within the SPÖ, there's still some debate about their candidate: Minister for Labour and Consumer Protection Issues Rudolf Hundstorfer (who was until recently seen as the most likely candidate) is now thinking about not running and also the SPÖ itself has concerns that the rising/high unemployment numbers, as well as Chancellor Faymann's constant governing in favour of illegals and migrants rather than the Austrian population, will hurt his chances.

The SPÖ might then ask former Austrian Chancellor Franz Vranitzky to run as President as an alternative option.

http://derstandard.at/2000027801899/Bundespraesidentschaft-Parteien-stellen-Kandidaten-in-naechsten-Tagen-vor