PPP: Palin leads GOP primary

[Mr. Morden]

Respondents were also asked for their second choice.  Second choice breakdown:

Sarah Palin 20%
Mike Huckabee 20%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Mitt Romney 13%
Ron Paul 6%
Tim Pawlenty 4%
Mitch Daniels 3%
John Thune 1%

fav/unfavorable numbers:

Mike Huckabee 63%/17% for +46%.
Sarah Palin 68%/22% for +46%.
Mitt Romney 56%/24% for +32%.
Newt Gingrich 57%/28% for +29%.

[Mr. Morden]

Second choice of Gingrich voters:

Huckabee 31%
Romney 27%
Palin 19%
Paul 9%

Second choice of Huckabee supporters:

Palin 34%
Gingrich 19%
Romney 17%
Pawlenty 7%

Second choice of Palin supporters:

Huckabee 24%
Gingrich 20%
Romney 12%
Paul 10%

Second choice of Romney supporters:

Palin 27%
Huckabee 23%
Gingrich 14%
Paul 6%

(Palin supporters seem to be the most likely to get confused by the quesiton, and say that Palin is both their first and second choice.  18% of Palin voters said that she was both their first and second choice.)

Leading second choice of other cadidates:

Romney supporters seem to give other candidates the lowest marks.  Huck and Palin both have a 46% favorable rating among Romney voters.  Gingrich has a 41% favorable rating among Romney voters.  In most other cases, supporters of one candidate tend to give competing candidates favorable ratings of over 50%.  Though Romney has just a 40% favorable rating among Palin voters.

PPP's take:

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/11/going-deep-on-republicans.html

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[Mr. Morden]

The 2012 race of the GOP presidential nomination is Pence's to lose at this point.  So let it be quoted.  So let it be done.

If you're really convinced of this, then you could make a lot of money off of Intrade on this.  Pence is only at 1.0 at the moment.

[Mr. Morden]

Don't entice the man to lose his money.  I'm serious here; I wouldn't even bet on Daniels and I think if he throws his hat in the ring he will win.  Betting on stuff like this is never a good idea.

It's not a good idea if you lose money.  It is a good idea if you gain money.