2017: NJ Gubernatorial/legislative elections

[Maxwell]

I think that Tom Kean Jr. could make it close.

If Trump becomes POTUS, Guadagno may very well be the incumbent in this race, as Christie may very well get a job in Trump's cabinet (AG?).  I'd say a Dem wins either way, considering Christie's unpopularity and NJ's blueness.

Having an unpopular lame duck isn't a guarantee that his/her party will lose.  See Oregon 2010, Washington 2012, etc.  And federal =/= statewide, either.

Washington and Oregon are both deep blue states at this point who had flop blue state Governors. It's definitely not the same when the Republican Governor of a blue state flops - See Mitt Romney's Massachusetts allowed Deval Patrick to win double digits.

[Maxwell]

ew Piscopo - unfunny comedian who almost certainly sounds like a hack.

[Maxwell]

If Piscopo runs third party he'll get less than 5% of the vote. unsurprisingly, a stupid move for him. Running in the GOP primary would've given him a chance against Christie's No.2.

[Maxwell]

It's pretty amazing that a 13 or 14 point margin of victory is a complete embarrassment. I get it considering he was leading by over 20 points when the race started, but really, the last time a non-incumbent governor won by this much was Jim McGreevy all the way back in 2001. New Jersey seems fairly inelastic when you get down to it - Only when the Republican is the incumbent and very popular do they ever get more than 50% of the vote, and only when Democratic candidates suck badly do they get below 50%.

Only Christie's re-election and Tom Kean's re-election scored over 50% for a GOP candidate. Every other time, even when the GOP candidate won, it was under 50%.