2020 Oregon Redistricting

[OBD]

Thoughts on this map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d88243e2-a758-4030-8e26-27e40d1144f6

No complaints on my end... won't happen though.

It balances out because my map of Georgia is an unintentional light D mander.

Interesting concept (and obviously bad for Democrats lol). The primary issue with this map, partisan concerns aside, are the county splits - Washington County should be kept near-whole, and the Salem area is a little scuffed. The Willamette split in Portland is pretty justifiable, but you should probably be consistent about it. Also not a fan of putting Hillsboro in with the western district - it's a better fit with the remainder of the West Portland burbs. 

[Kamala's side hoe]

Thoughts on this map?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d88243e2-a758-4030-8e26-27e40d1144f6

No complaints on my end... won't happen though.

It balances out because my map of Georgia is an unintentional light D mander.

Interesting concept (and obviously bad for Democrats lol). The primary issue with this map, partisan concerns aside, are the county splits - Washington County should be kept near-whole, and the Salem area is a little scuffed. The Willamette split in Portland is pretty justifiable, but you should probably be consistent about it. Also not a fan of putting Hillsboro in with the western district - it's a better fit with the remainder of the West Portland burbs. 

Agreed, this is a blatant R gerrymander. There's no good reason to cut off Downtown Hillsboro from the rest of urbanized Washington County and lump it in with Corvallis. Same goes for lumping Eugene and most of the Clackamas County PDX suburbs into a Likely R district west of the Cascades.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/591e33e0-670e-4fa8-b256-f755151d3ab8

This, or something like this, should be the baseline for a fair map. It keeps Washington County, Clackamas County, and Portland (city) whole, as well as Lane County as a nice bonus (though this requires the 5th District to cut into The Dalles. Besides the Wasco cut, the only other really objectionable choices are separating Salem and Keizer and (potentially) splitting the North Coast - though one of the two could perhaps be remedied by splitting Yamhill County.

That said, I hope this map or something like it does not get enacted - 5-1 gerrymander all the way!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a517ad3d-3b01-4f4f-8cee-e4930b251f04
is this a good effort at a CoI-minded Dem-friendly map?

[TJ in Oregon]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a517ad3d-3b01-4f4f-8cee-e4930b251f04
is this a good effort at a CoI-minded Dem-friendly map?

I think the Oregon GOP would be quite overjoyed at that map.

While it is nominally 5D-1R, in a bad year for the Dems it could absolutely go 4R-2D.

As for COIs, it's fine, but a north/south split of the mid-Willamette and coast are better.

[lfromnj]

Anyone else notice the raw numbers for the 2016 election are wrong?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else notice the raw numbers for the 2016 election are wrong?

How so?

[Zaybay]

Anyone else notice the raw numbers for the 2016 election are wrong?

How so?

If you look at the vote counts, there's clearly something wrong with the 2016 data set. Deschutes county, a county with around 200K people, has almost 200K votes total, Multnomah has more votes than citizens, Lane county has 205K Democratic votes on the ledger, etc.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anyone else notice the raw numbers for the 2016 election are wrong?

How so?

If you look at the vote counts, there's clearly something wrong with the 2016 data set. Deschutes county, a county with around 200K people, has almost 200K votes total, Multnomah has more votes than citizens, Lane county has 205K Democratic votes on the ledger, etc.

Ouch.
That sounds kind of bad for anyone trying to construct a Dem-friendly map.

[NOVA Green]

Not sure if it has been posted elsewhere, but the Oregon Supreme Court just gave the State Legislature an extra (3) Months to complete redistricting as opposed to handing it over to the SoS 7/1/21 as per the Oregon Constitution.

It's behind a Paywall unless you are an Oregonian subscriber like myself so quoting a few passages to share with Atlas which seem perhaps the most relevant.

Not really sure how this will really impact the overall outcome either way with the +1 US House Seat for 2022, but certainly something to consider especially with State House and State Senate shifts which might end up protecting incumbency where SH and SD boundaries roll up into US-REP districts.

Leaders of the Oregon Legislature prevailed Friday in their legal quest for the right to redraw the district boundaries of the state’s 90 House and Senate seats.... Republicans in the Senate were jubilant Friday, saying keeping the task in the Legislature rather than handing it to the Democratic secretary of state, who they said is extremely partisan, was a big win, even though Democrats control both chambers.

House Republicans expressed concerns, meanwhile, that the Legislature’s work will also be too Democrat-controlled. House Republican Leader Christine Drazan, R-Canby, said she wants Oregon to give the job to a non-partisan commission, as Washington and California have done.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/04/oregon-legislauture-wins-right-to-redraw-house-and-senate-district-boundaries.html

[The Invincible Brent Boggs]

Anyone else notice the raw numbers for the 2016 election are wrong?

How so?

If you look at the vote counts, there's clearly something wrong with the 2016 data set. Deschutes county, a county with around 200K people, has almost 200K votes total, Multnomah has more votes than citizens, Lane county has 205K Democratic votes on the ledger, etc.

A quick inspection of the results suggests that the vote totals for both parties have been doubled. Weird, but shouldn't affect the D/R percentages.

[lfromnj]

https://www.opb.org/article/2021/04/15/oregon-lawmakers-reach-deal-to-end-delay-tactics-slowing-session/

Forced Bipartisan pseudo-commission comes out of Oregon due to the senate rules in exchange for no delay tactics. It can work in Oregon due to the very unusual quorum rules in this state.

The deal gives Republicans a far weightier say over what boundaries for the state’s 90 legislative districts will look like for the next 10 years, a decision that can hold enormous sway over the distribution of power in the state. Republicans also have increased their influence in a potentially more interesting matter: How to divide the state into six congressional districts, rather than the current five, if Oregon is awarded an additional seat in the U.S. House of Representatives as expected.

But Democrats have retained a backstop, too — particularly when it comes to legislative districts. If lawmakers fail to successfully pass new legislative boundaries by late September, the task will fall to Secretary of State Shemia Fagan, a progressive Democrat who few Republicans would want to see in charge of that process.

Should lawmakers fail to come to an agreement on new U.S. House districts, the matter would be settled in the courts.

The court is still very D slanted but Democrats will probably have to keep certain limits on their proposed maps.

[OBD]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d1639ed9-5d5a-4b01-b1ac-6d7563decd9f

Here's a potential compromise map that could emerge from this new agreement. DeFazio (Clinton+14) and Schrader (Clinton+11) are both shored up in a major way, while Republicans get their second seat in Oregon. In a bone to Democrats, who still have some leverage in the process, the 2nd district becomes a 'sleeper' seat - voting for Trump by just single digits in 2020. This map also keeps Portland, Washington County, and the Cascades COI whole.

The 'fairer' alternative is to move the Marion and Clackamas portions of the 6th into the 2nd - that was actually my original plan. This change makes the 2nd and 6th both safely Republican.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If the GOp doesn't agree to 4-1-1 we should send it to the courts.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d1639ed9-5d5a-4b01-b1ac-6d7563decd9f

Here's a potential compromise map that could emerge from this new agreement. DeFazio (Clinton+14) and Schrader (Clinton+11) are both shored up in a major way, while Republicans get their second seat in Oregon. In a bone to Democrats, who still have some leverage in the process, the 2nd district becomes a 'sleeper' seat - voting for Trump by just single digits in 2020. This map also keeps Portland, Washington County, and the Cascades COI whole.

The 'fairer' alternative is to move the Marion and Clackamas portions of the 6th into the 2nd - that was actually my original plan. This change makes the 2nd and 6th both safely Republican.

I think dems should push for a Trump 16 Biden 20 district

[Canis]

Just Made a Oregon map with the new district
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf9fb9b7-15b7-4fc7-8af0-a29a55a6a899
I was focusing on lowering the amount of county splits in the end I only had 3 though it's actually a pretty competitive map 1 Safe R 1 Likely R 2 Safe D 1 Likely D and 1 Tossup District.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Just Made a Oregon map with the new district
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf9fb9b7-15b7-4fc7-8af0-a29a55a6a899
I was focusing on lowering the amount of county splits in the end I only had 3 though it's actually a pretty competitive map 1 Safe R 1 Likely R 2 Safe D 1 Likely D and 1 Tossup District.

1) The Portland split does not follow obvious COI boundaries

2) Idk which bothers me more- Linn County being lumped in with east of the Cascades, or the way Eugene + Eastern Lane County is connected to the Mid-Willamette Valley through a narrow strip

[Canis]

Just Made a Oregon map with the new district
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf9fb9b7-15b7-4fc7-8af0-a29a55a6a899
I was focusing on lowering the amount of county splits in the end I only had 3 though it's actually a pretty competitive map 1 Safe R 1 Likely R 2 Safe D 1 Likely D and 1 Tossup District.

1) The Portland split does not follow obvious COI boundaries

2) Idk which bothers me more- Linn County being lumped in with east of the Cascades, or the way Eugene + Eastern Lane County is connected to the Mid-Willamette Valley through a narrow strip

Whats COI boundaries?
I mean I admit it's not that pretty of a map lol I was just trying to make one with as few counties splits as possible lol

[Kamala's side hoe]

Just Made a Oregon map with the new district
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf9fb9b7-15b7-4fc7-8af0-a29a55a6a899
I was focusing on lowering the amount of county splits in the end I only had 3 though it's actually a pretty competitive map 1 Safe R 1 Likely R 2 Safe D 1 Likely D and 1 Tossup District.

1) The Portland split does not follow obvious COI boundaries

2) Idk which bothers me more- Linn County being lumped in with east of the Cascades, or the way Eugene + Eastern Lane County is connected to the Mid-Willamette Valley through a narrow strip

Whats COI boundaries?
I mean I admit it's not that pretty of a map lol I was just trying to make one with as few counties splits as possible lol

Not sure- I think it means community of interest?

I don’t blame you for trying- county splits are going to be inevitable. But there should be a better way to lump Eugene together with Corvallis without that gerrymandered look.

[Canis]

Just Made a Oregon map with the new district
https://davesredistricting.org/join/bf9fb9b7-15b7-4fc7-8af0-a29a55a6a899
I was focusing on lowering the amount of county splits in the end I only had 3 though it's actually a pretty competitive map 1 Safe R 1 Likely R 2 Safe D 1 Likely D and 1 Tossup District.

1) The Portland split does not follow obvious COI boundaries

2) Idk which bothers me more- Linn County being lumped in with east of the Cascades, or the way Eugene + Eastern Lane County is connected to the Mid-Willamette Valley through a narrow strip

Whats COI boundaries?
I mean I admit it's not that pretty of a map lol I was just trying to make one with as few counties splits as possible lol

Not sure- I think it means community of interest?

I don’t blame you for trying- county splits are going to be inevitable. But there should be a better way to lump Eugene together with Corvallis without that gerrymandered look.

True True your definitely right my map doesn't look pretty at all haha I would be shocked if the actual map looked like mine

[Nyvin]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/6bbb59be-0b30-4b36-b80e-a9cb69ce275c

2020 Results -
OR-1
62.82%   33.62%

OR-2
36.29%   60.89%

OR-3
78.87%   18.22%

OR-4
53.37%   43.45%

OR-5
55.94%   40.89%

OR-6
50.11%   46.41%

[_.]

I tried my hand at a fair 6-district map of Oregon.

Image Link

The Population Deviation is 0.03%, and it reflects 2015 - 2019 ACS Data.

61/100 on Dave's Proportionality Index
60/100 on the Compactness Index
63/100 on County Splitting
0/100 on the Minority Representation index (Oregon doesn't have enough of them )
67/100 on Dave's competitiveness index

The map above shows results from the 2016 Oregon Attorney General Election (chosen because it is closest to the 2020 U.S. Presidential election).

Check it out here and see county and municipality boundaries.


Partisan Breakdown by Election

2016 Oregon Attorney General Election: 4D to 2R

2016 U.S. Senate Election in Oregon: 6D

2016 Oregon Gubernatorial Election: 4R to 2D

2016 U.S. Presidential Election in Oregon: 3D to 3R

2018 Oregon Gubernatorial Election: 4R to 2D


Opinions?

[Schiff for Senate]

A crafty 5-1 Democratic map I created.
These are the estimated CPVIs of each district:

DISTRICT 1 - Eastern Oregon - R+13
DISTRICT 2 - Southwest Oregon - D+4
DISTRICT 3 - Clumps of Western Oregon - D+2
DISTRICT 4 - South of Portland - D+7
DISTRICT 5 - Northwest Oregon, Including the Heart of Portland - D+23
DISTRICT 6 - South and West of Portland - D+10

[NOVA Green]

Not a map per say, but here is an article from The Oregonian published today.

It's a subscriber exclusive, so unless you have a subscription (like I do) it's behind the paywall unless you want to pay a few $$$ to get a "new subscriber discount".

Don't want to exceed guidelines when it comes to copywrite articles but here's one item which stood out from what is a very well written article:

Communities of interest

This time around, lawmakers will base the maps on 2020 population data the Census Bureau plans to release Thursday. It will show which areas of the state have grown and shrunk in population and provide some information about the “communities of interest” Salinas referenced, a broad term in Oregon law that can be interpreted as neighborhoods, school districts, unincorporated communities and other ties that connect people.

One such tie Democrats will be eyeing is race and ethnicity, particularly among the state’s fast-growing number of Latinos who are citizens of voting age. While Latinos make up an estimated 13% of the state’s population, just one House district, corresponding to less than 2% of the 60 House seats, has a majority Latino population. That is House District 22, centered on Woodburn and held for a third term by Rep. Teresa Alonso León, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child with her migrant farmworker parents.

In addition to overall population counts, the census information will show the race and ethnicity of voting-age adults and of children. The census does not ask people about their party registration or preferences, but party registration by address is available from the state elections office....   

....Salinas said population estimates in recent years have shown significant population growth in parts of Washington County — Portland State University’s modeling predicted a countywide increase from the 2010 census to 2020 census of more than 73,000 people. And, if the actual census population count bears that out, Salinas said it could make sense to “start there to see where our sixth congressional district is.” The university’s population modeling showed a still larger increase of 79,000 residents in Multnomah County.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/oregon-lawmakers-prepare-to-draw-new-congressional-legislative-districts.html

[S019]

Not a map per say, but here is an article from The Oregonian published today.

It's a subscriber exclusive, so unless you have a subscription (like I do) it's behind the paywall unless you want to pay a few $$$ to get a "new subscriber discount".

Don't want to exceed guidelines when it comes to copywrite articles but here's one item which stood out from what is a very well written article:

Communities of interest

This time around, lawmakers will base the maps on 2020 population data the Census Bureau plans to release Thursday. It will show which areas of the state have grown and shrunk in population and provide some information about the “communities of interest” Salinas referenced, a broad term in Oregon law that can be interpreted as neighborhoods, school districts, unincorporated communities and other ties that connect people.

One such tie Democrats will be eyeing is race and ethnicity, particularly among the state’s fast-growing number of Latinos who are citizens of voting age. While Latinos make up an estimated 13% of the state’s population, just one House district, corresponding to less than 2% of the 60 House seats, has a majority Latino population. That is House District 22, centered on Woodburn and held for a third term by Rep. Teresa Alonso León, who immigrated to the U.S. as a child with her migrant farmworker parents.

In addition to overall population counts, the census information will show the race and ethnicity of voting-age adults and of children. The census does not ask people about their party registration or preferences, but party registration by address is available from the state elections office....   

....Salinas said population estimates in recent years have shown significant population growth in parts of Washington County — Portland State University’s modeling predicted a countywide increase from the 2010 census to 2020 census of more than 73,000 people. And, if the actual census population count bears that out, Salinas said it could make sense to “start there to see where our sixth congressional district is.” The university’s population modeling showed a still larger increase of 79,000 residents in Multnomah County.

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2021/08/oregon-lawmakers-prepare-to-draw-new-congressional-legislative-districts.html

I read it using a paywall bypass and it says they plan to release drafts on September 3rd. Also lots of signs that the Democrats will indeed pursue a fair map which likely dooms DeFazio and probably isn't good news for Schrader or Dem prospects in the new seat, either