France 2012: the official thread

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Any debates scheduled yet?

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Unemployment rate's fallen! SARKOMENTUM!

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Damn, I'm getting really nervous now. 

I refuse to believe that the PS, or the European Left in general, could be so inept to let this one slip from their fingers. I just refuse to believe it.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/francois-hollande/9138802/France-election-2012-Francois-Hollande-team-says-Nicolas-Sarkozy-like-a-British-Conservative-PM.html

François, president!

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-03/hollande-widens-second-round-lead-over-sarkozy-poll-shows-1-.html

Hollande ahead 28-27 in the premier tour and extending he lead to 56-44 in the deuxieme tour. As I type this, i'm listening to Hollande attacking Melenchon (or, atleast, dissuading left voters from making a protest vote for him), live in Blois. Finally a change of strategy?

No idea why the Hollande campaign uses Daily Motion over Youtube though.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

I know right. If Hollande's campaign is even half good, they'll take such an accusation by the neck and tells voters that France's only in such a state because of Sarko and the Right who've been there for the past 17 years.

Right-wing governments really take things to a new low when it looks like they'll lose. I'm just waiting for Sarko's "New Labour, New Danger" moment.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

The same Merkel-Sarko-Rajoy-Cameron-Monti consensus is making the problem worse and not better though, to be fair.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

Lest we forget the UK in 2015.

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One thing is true. The situation hasn't improved with Rajoy as President. Zapatero kept us below 400 points in the risk premium. Last Thursday it was at 410 IIRC. And workers have lost rights and can be fired more easily now, students like me are seeing the education go worse each year (thanks, Esperanza Aguirre), social security with PP isn't a priority... They're destroying the welfare state and the economy isn't improving (even if it was, I think it isn't worth of it if we don't have a reasonable education, rights, social security, etc)

I understand.

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/nicolas-sarkozy/9189231/Francois-Hollande-would-destroy-Frances-economy-within-two-days-Nicolas-Sarkozy-claims.html

Someone's been stealing from David Cameron's "a re-elected Labour government would turn us into Greece" playbook.

The European right brought us into this sh*t and now they claim they're the only ones who can save us. How lame.

European consensus brought the crisis. The left-wing goverments in Spain and Britain did no better when they were still in office.

Yup, that is why Le Pen and Melenchon are the only true alternatives, and Melenchon is the only left-wing alternative. Sarkozy and Hollande are separated only by cosmetic differences, for most intents and purposes. The primary benefit of a Hollande victory for the left-wing would be to show that they can actually win somewhere significant. There is no real benefit for the right-wing except to further demoralize the European left; they would probably be better off in the opposition anyhow.

I sort've agree. This one "one voice, one solution, ignore everything else" mentality of the big EU governments is doing none of us any good. I want to see Hollande elected for various reasons, but the most pressing reason now is so as to get more voices round the table.

European leftist have surely their fair share of repsonsibility, for utterly giving up to the neoliberal right in the past two decades. However, while I don't know if the European left will save Europe, what I know for sure is that with the European right, Europe is screwed. Hollande might not be what we need today, but it's the only realistic possibility we have to avoid the worse.

(of course, Hollande alose is useless, so we have to pray for Italy and Germany as well, in 2013).

Lest we forget the UK in 2015.

Wtf?  Not unless Labour dumps Miliband in favor of someone better, and I can't even think of anyone at this point.  If they switch to his brother, it'll be of no difference whether or not they win, because he's a neoliberal warmongering Blairite who's hardly any different from Cameron.  Harriet Harperson definitely won't be able to win.  Neither will Sadiq Khan, Douglas Alexander, Yvette Cooper or any other non-Blairite. And I could almost even classify Ed Balls as Blairite at this point because of his endorsement of austerity.  Same with Ed Miliband.  They won't win until 2020, and if Scotland seceeds, maybe later.  It won't be until the next generation that a Labour victory will be both possible and meaningful at all.  And frankly, Chukah Umunna has been disappointing me tons lately by saying that he doesn't care about bankers getting huge bonuses.  Rachel Reeves has too by letting Ed Miliband and Ed Balls usurp her. 

Ok.

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New LH2 poll having it at 29.5 for Hollande and Sarko at 27 with Mélenchon falling 2% (and into 4th place behind Marine Le Pen) to 13% in the premier tour.

Hollande leads 55-45 in the deuxieme tour.

Mélenchonists getting scared of letting Sarko back in? We've seen the Sarkomentum splutter out a bit in the part week or so.

http://lci.tf1.fr/politique/elections-presidentielles/sondage-le-pen-en-hausse-hollande-victorieux-de-sarkozy-7129149.html

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http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2012/04/12/sarkozy-obama-we-will-win-video_n_1421269.html?ref=france

Sarko to Obama: "We'll will, you and me".

Oh god...

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Oh wow, only just realised how close the first round is. François, President!

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/apr/15/sarkozy-obama-videoconference-tv-stunt

Reminds me of an episode of The Thick of It when a dying government gets the celebrities in to try and connect with the public:

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Sums up the Sarko campaign fairly well.

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Chirac to vote for Hollande....

He had said that long ago.

But still, what an ridiculous situation for Sarko...

L'air de la Corrèze.

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I predicted a 51.5% to 48.5% win for Hollande back in January....I think I'm sticking by that.

Probably generous to Sarko there

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If Hollande wins, he's the first left-winger in one of the big EU countries to win without swinging right since...?

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Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

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Daniel Hannan's take on this election:

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danielhannan/100150853/if-nicolas-sarkozy-thinks-the-ft-is-a-free-market-newspaper-hes-even-more-extreme-than-we-realised/

I don't think I could hate a Tory as much a Dan Hannan. And I don't think any are that deluded.

I actually think he's an asset to the Left. I mean, he's openly critical of the NHS.

Don't understand why he hasn't joined UKIP yet.

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Maybe CSA which seems to be trolling around with a 58-42 runoff and Sarko at 24%.

Looks like CSA will once again be the epic fail of this election.

Imagine if François actually won 58-42 though... We can dream.

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I'm reading in the UK press that the Sarko campaign's got to that inevitable point of every losing campaign: senior allies (Fillon, et al.) are starting to point fingers.

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This isn't looking good at all.

*Sigh* I like Sarkozy.

He will be missed.

No. I refuse to give up. France can't go the way of Greece and Spain with Hollande. People need to wake up in the polling booths and realize this is no time to be throwing the UMP out for something as risky as the Socialists.

Because the UMP aren't at all risky and have kept France in the clear...

And just look at the polls for the 2nd round, all of them so far this week have had Hollande at or above 55%. Interesting.

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I wonder how DSK'd be doing, sans the rape thing.