Next Nova Scotia general election

[DL]

There has been remarkably little polling in this election. Does anyone have the slightest idea who is winning or at least doing better or worse than expected?

[DL]

Newest poll shows NDP momentum at 27% and the Liberal lead drastically reduced from the previous poll by the same company Narrative

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/narrative-research-poll-liberals-pc-ndp-1.6137129

[DL]

If the Nova Scotia Liberals lose their majority or lose outright - after calling an early election with a huge lead in the polls - it would be a very bad omen for the federal Liberals and would likely cast a shadow over Trudeau's whole first week

[DL]

One thing to keep in mind is that elections are more "personality based" in Atlantic Canada so being an incumbent is often a big advantage. A LOT of Liberals are not running for re-election meaning that a number of seats that "on paper" look like easy Liberal holds are actually more like tossups because with no incumbent all bets are off. 

[DL]

By my count there are 7 Liberals not running again from outside HRM, including Stephen McNeil. These include MLAs for Annapolis, Colchester North, Lunenburg West, Kings West, Glace Bay, Hants West and Clare-Digby - plus redistribution has changed some riding boundaries a lot...that creates a lot of vulnerable Liberal seats

[DL]

Looking at maps, I noticed that there's a cluster of four Liberal seats on the coast of Bay of Fundy that they held by big margins in every election since 2003, regardless of how rest of the province or nearby seats voted. Anybody know what's behind that?

IMHO its largely due to some popular Liberal incumbents in that area, plus it was the home region of retiring Liberal Premier Stephen McNeil. Its not as if that part of the province is traditionally all that Liberal - several of those seats have gone Tory in the past and the federal riding that covers that area is often hotly contested.