Next Nova Scotia general election

[Benjamin Frank]

Definitely regional splits although, of course, first past the post, highlights regional divisions more than really exist:

Mainland Nova Scotia
P.C: 20
Liberal: 4
Independent: 1

Halifax Regional Municipality
Liberal: 11
P.C 6
NDP: 5

Cape Breton
P.C: 5
Liberal:2
NDP: 1

The Liberals gained support in Cape Breton over 2017 but did not end up with a net gain in seats.

[Benjamin Frank]

Not that I have an ear to the ground or anything, but although Iain Rankin says he plans to stay on as Liberal leader, these are the MLAs I predict would be likeliest to run for leader (or to be asked to run for leader.)

1.Zach Churchill
2.Kelly Regan
3.Lorelei Nicoll
4.Patricia Arab
5.Angela Simmonds
6.Derek Momborurquette
7.Fred Tilley?

[DistingFlyer]

With all the preliminary counts completed, here are turnout figures:

Metro: 53.4% (+4%)
Cape Breton: 57.2% (-2%)
Mainland: 57.2% (+2%)
Overall: 55.7% (+2%)

PC ridings: 57.0%
Lib ridings: 54.4%
NDP ridings: 52.4%

Highest: Richmond (71.4%) [2017's highest was Cape Breton - Richmond, with 68.6%]
Lowest: Dartmouth North (46.1%) [2017's lowest was Halifax Citadel - Sable Island, with 39.3%]

Overall, the lowest turnout we've had apart from 2017; given how turnouts have been suffering in other COVID elections, it's a good sign that ours actually went up a little.

Richmond takes the highest-turnout prize for the third election in a row.


Note: have also updated the vote figures in the earlier post.

[MaxQue]

I was walking around downtown last night with a friend, and noticed the results on someone's TV through a window. The NDP were on 10 seats, so I rushed home to follow the results. What a let down!

Burrill should probably be tossed. Basically status quo, but down 2 seats (let's be honest, they're not going to win the seat they're leading in) from the last election. I suspect he hangs on though. I'm happy they at least hung on to one Cape Breton seat. Too bad Morgan couldn't win Glace Bay.

You are wrong, but I don't think anybody would have guessed Halifax Citadel if told the NDP would only gain 1 seat.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was walking around downtown last night with a friend, and noticed the results on someone's TV through a window. The NDP were on 10 seats, so I rushed home to follow the results. What a let down!

Burrill should probably be tossed. Basically status quo, but down 2 seats (let's be honest, they're not going to win the seat they're leading in) from the last election. I suspect he hangs on though. I'm happy they at least hung on to one Cape Breton seat. Too bad Morgan couldn't win Glace Bay.

You are wrong, but I don't think anybody would have guessed Halifax Citadel if told the NDP would only gain 1 seat.

Yeah, I saw that. Amazing! Wonder why the advance votes were so different there compared to the other ridings they ended up losing.

[DistingFlyer]

To illustrate the importance of the individual candidate in Nova Scotia races, of the fourteen Liberal seats to be lost only five had incumbents running again (Antigonish, Eastern Shore, Guysborough, Halifax Citadel & Lunenburg).

[Benjamin Frank]

To illustrate the importance of the individual candidate in Nova Scotia races, of the fourteen Liberal seats to be lost only four had incumbents running again (Antigonish, Eastern Shore, Guysborough, Halifax Citadel & Lunenburg).

That's five. 

[DistingFlyer]

To illustrate the importance of the individual candidate in Nova Scotia races, of the fourteen Liberal seats to be lost only four had incumbents running again (Antigonish, Eastern Shore, Guysborough, Halifax Citadel & Lunenburg).

That's five.  

Whoops again - had originally only counted the four to lose to Tories and forgotten my own MLA!


To break this down further, nine open Liberal seats were lost and six were held (a 40% retention rate). In contrast, ten Liberal incumbents were re-elected and five were not (a 67% retention rate).

[DistingFlyer]

Vote change in the 15 Liberal ridings with incumbents running:

Lib - 45.8% to 43.9% (-2%) (5 seats lost)
PC - 28.6% to 32.3% (+4%) (4 seats gained)
NDP - 21.9% to 21.5% (-0%) (1 seat gained)


And in the 15 open Liberal ridings:

Lib - 48.2% to 40.3% (-8%) (9 seats lost)
PC - 29.9% to 39.2% (+9%) (9 seats gained)
NDP - 18.5% to 17.3% (-1%)

[adma]

I was walking around downtown last night with a friend, and noticed the results on someone's TV through a window. The NDP were on 10 seats, so I rushed home to follow the results. What a let down!

Burrill should probably be tossed. Basically status quo, but down 2 seats (let's be honest, they're not going to win the seat they're leading in) from the last election. I suspect he hangs on though. I'm happy they at least hung on to one Cape Breton seat. Too bad Morgan couldn't win Glace Bay.

You are wrong, but I don't think anybody would have guessed Halifax Citadel if told the NDP would only gain 1 seat.

Yeah, I saw that. Amazing! Wonder why the advance votes were so different there compared to the other ridings they ended up losing.

Hasn't the "urban left" had a more general advance-poll overperformance tendency as of late?

For Burrill, I think it's a little like Andrea Horwath in '14 in reverse--while Horwath kept all her shock byelection gains, Burrill's byelection losses stayed lost.  And *that's* what skews impressions.

A different dilemma parallels that of the Libs: all but one of the seats remaining are part of a tight Halifax Harbour inner-urban cluster.  Almost as if the onetime Sackville-Cobequid suburban-cornerstone types of seats are now destined to be terminally out of reach...

[Benjamin Frank]

Of course, this comparison is based on the 2017 redistributed votes and not actual local campaigns, but it's the best we can do.

P.C share of vote, was up in 36 ridings and down in 19.  Most notably the P.Cs dropped in Cape Breton and somewhat oddly two of the 3 Pictou ridings.

Liberal share of the vote was up in 16 ridings and down in 39.  Most notable increase was in Cape Breton but it didn't translate to a net gain in seats on the island.

NDP share of the vote was up in 25 ridings and down in 30.  An increase in much of Halifax and a decrease in most of Mainland Nova Scotia.  

As I wrote previously, under Gary Burrill, the NDP is basically an inner city Halifax/Dartmouth and industrial Cape Breton Party, not all that dissimilar to the NDP in Newfoundland and Labrador but with more support. Also not all that dissimilar to the NDP in Saskatchewan if you replace industrial Cape Breton with isolated Northern Saskatchewan.

[King of Kensington]

A record 4 Black MLAs were elected - all in the opposition (3 Liberals, 1 NDP).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/record-number-black-mlas-elected-nova-scotia-legislature-1.6144448

[The OP said two Liberals, two New Democrats]

[Benjamin Frank]

A record 4 Black MLAs were elected - two Liberals, two NDP.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/record-number-black-mlas-elected-nova-scotia-legislature-1.6144448

Three Liberal and one New Democrat.

Liberal: Angela Simmonds, Tony Ince, and Ali Duale

New Democratic: Suzy Hansen

[DistingFlyer]

P.C share of vote, was up in 36 ridings and down in 19.  Most notably the P.Cs dropped in Cape Breton and somewhat oddly two of the 3 Pictou ridings.

Those areas saw huge Tory increases four years ago (+21% in CB and +16% in Pictou); the net change from 2013 to now (+11% in CB and +16% in Pictou) is a little more in line with their overall rise across the province (+12%).

Although all the Tory majorities are down in all three Pictou ridings, their vote share is slightly up in two of the three (53% to 56% in Centre & 63% to 64% in West); Tim Houston's vote is the only one that's gone down (albeit from 74% to 70%). As with the rest of the rural mainland, the NDP vote continues to slip away.

[DistingFlyer]

As usual, swings in various directions; 42 between PCs & Liberals, 10 between NDP & Liberals, two between PCs & NDP and one between Independent & PCs.

Twelve seats swung from Tory to Liberal: four in Cape Breton, five in Metro and three on the mainland (specifically, Pictou County).

Biggest PC-Lib swing: Northside - Westmount (26.3%) (the only Liberal gain)
Biggest PC-Lib swing without the seat changing hands: Cape Breton East (16.0%)
Biggest PC-Lib swing in a Liberal-held seat: Cole Harbour - Dartmouth (6.4%)


Thirty seats swung from Liberal to Conservative, most of them on the rural mainland but a few in HRM suburbs and even a couple in Cape Breton.

Biggest Lib-PC swing: Digby - Annapolis (21.7%) (PC gain)
Biggest Lib-PC swing without the seat changing hands: Annapolis (16.9%)
Biggest Lib-PC swing in a Tory-held seat: Cumberland South (19.3%)


Eight seats swung from Liberal to NDP, all of them in Metro.

Biggest Lib-NDP swing: Dartmouth South (14.5%) (NDP held)
Biggest Lib-NDP swing without the seat changing hands: Fairview - Clayton Park (4.8%)


Two seats swung from NDP to Liberal, both in Cape Breton: Sydney - Membertou (10.5%) & Cape Breton Centre - Whitney Pier (3.9%). The Liberals already held the former, and came close to gaining the latter.


The two seats to swing from NDP to Tory were the two ridings flipped in by-elections: Sackville - Cobequid (14.8%) & Truro - Bible Hill - etc. (21.6%). The PC majority in Sackville was actually larger than that in the by-election.


Overall, Liberals dropped to third in two ridings (Glace Bay - Dominion & Sackville - Cobequid) while the NDP dropped to third in three (Pictou West, Chester - St. Margaret's & Truro). Tories fell to fourth in Cumberland North.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking purely at Tories vs New Democrats, 32 ridings swung to the Tories while 23 (including Cumberland North) shifted to the NDP. All but four of the latter were in Cape Breton & Metro, the exceptions being Kings North (held by the PCs, NDP third), Hants East (gained by the PCs, NDP third), Pictou East (held by the PCs, NDP third) and the aforementioned Cumberland North (PC to Independent, NDP third).

Of the twenty-one Metro ridings, twelve swung from PCs to NDP while nine swung Tory. Those nine can be broken down thus:

Three Liberal seats, NDP in third place: Cole Harbour - Dartmouth, Hammonds Plains - Lucasville & Timberlea - Prospect
Three Liberal seats, NDP in second place: Halifax Armdale, Halifax Atlantic & Preston
Two Tory seats, NDP in third place: Eastern Passage & Waverley - Fall River - Beaver Bank
One NDP seat where Tories went from third to first: Sackville - Cobequid

Most of those are on the outer edges of the main urban area; Armdale & Atlantic are a little unusual in that the Tories started in third place (and remained there) but their vote rose more than the NDP's did. Metro seats where the NDP was in third place but their vote rose more than the PCs' were more the norm, as that happened six times (Bedford Basin, Bedford South, Clayton Park West, Cole Harbour, Dartmouth East & Sackville - Uniacke). The NDP almost beat the Tories for second place in Clayton Park West & Cole Harbour, but didn't quite get there.


As for Cape Breton, seven of eight seats swung from PCs to NDP, Richmond being the only exception (where the NDP also dropped from third to fourth, behind Alana Paon).

[DistingFlyer]

Official counts conducted today, though it appears that only the figures for Antigonish & Halifax Atlantic have changed at all.

Have updated the datafile for NS Elections from 1925 to the present: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Pa-73KSfj_nmezJ0WKTKrjlDW6RFUJJR?usp=sharing

[Benjamin Frank]

This is based on the election count before the official (certified) results.

Party vote by (broad) region

Mainland Nova Scotia (25 ridings)
Total votes: 187,310
Liberal: 63,425  33.9%
P.C:      89,736  47.9
NDP:    24,622  13.1
Green:   4600     2.5
Other:   4,927

Halifax Regional Municipality (22 ridings)
Total Votes: 167,731
Liberal: 64,970  38.7%
P.C:      47,581  28.4
NDP:    50,364  30.0
Green:   4,369   2.6
Other:      447

Cape Breton (8 ridings)
Total Votes: 61,822
Liberal: 24,696  39.9%
P.C:      23,679  38.3
NDP:    12,865  20.8
Green:        72
Other:       510

Even being aware of the vagaries of first past the post, I find it hard to believe the Liberals received the most votes on Cape Breton but lost in seats 5-2 to the P.Cs.

[Benjamin Frank]

I know that you've all you following this thread have been waiting on baited breath, unable to sleep, for Frank's cabinet prediction.  Okay, none of you have, but you all should have!


I don't think this will be completely correct as I don't think the cabinet will actually be this large or that these will be all actual ministries.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Tim Houston
2.Finance, Allan MacMaster
3.Economic Development and Trade, Steve Craig
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Trevor Boudreau
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Kim Masland
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Tory Rushton
7.Energy and Mines, Keith Bains
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Aquaculture, John Lohr
9.Environment, Barbara Adams
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Karla MacFarlane
11.Service Nova Scotia, Brian Wong
12.Children and Family Development, Jill Besler
13.Social Development and Housing, Larry Harrison
14.Education, Susan Corkum Greek
15.Advanced Education and Training, Colton LeBlanc
16.Health, Tim Halman
17.Municiptal Affairs, Brad Johns
18.Indigenous Relations, Michelle Thompson
19.Justice and Public Safety, Becky Durham

Speaker, Pat Dunn
Whip, Dave Ritcey
Caucus Chair, Tom Taggart

My track record is to get a lot of the names right (though far from all) for getting into the cabinet, but to get them in the wrong positions.

Pat Dunn is the only P.C MLA to have previously served in cabinet, all be it in a fairly junior ministry (health promotion and protection) but I think he loses out in Pictou based on the numbers game.

Keith Bain is the only other P.C MLA to have been on the government benches, but he was, I believe, the Deputy Speaker at the time.

Part of the problem with forming a cabinet taking gender into consideration is that this is the gender breakdown of the P.C MLAs

Mainland: 12 men, 8 women
Halifax: 5 men, 1 woman
Cape Breton, 5 men

So, providing representation for Halifax and Cape Breton in the cabinet makes it harder to appoint more women to the cabinet.

(In addition to the 9 women in the P.C caucus, there are 5 women in the Liberal caucus, 5 in the NDP caucus and the one independent, so 20 of the 55 MLAs are women.)

[DistingFlyer]

Cape Breton (8 ridings)
Total Votes: 61,822
Liberal: 24,696  39.9%
P.C:      23,679  38.3
NDP:    12,865  20.8
Green:        72
Other:       510

Even being aware of the vagaries of first past the post, I find it hard to believe the Liberals received the most votes on Cape Breton but lost in seats 5-2 to the P.Cs.

Unusual indeed; seems to come down to very poor third-place Tory showings in both Sydney - Membertou & Cape Breton - Whitney Pier, combined with fairly marginal Tory wins in Glace Bay - Dominion, Richmond & Cape Breton East, along with sharply reduced Tory majorities in every seat they previously held (including Cape Breton East) and the loss of Northside - Westmount on a huge swing.

Allan MacMaster & Keith Bain (two long-standing MLAs) suffered much smaller swings against them than Murray Ryan & Brian Comer (the 2019 by-election winners); had Alfie MacLeod & Eddie Orrell, the two previous members, not ventured into federal politics I wonder what the vote on the Island would have looked like.


One question: you count 22 ridings in the Metro area while I count 21; am curious as to the one on which we differ. The ones I include are as follows:

Lib (11): Bedford Basin, Bedford South, Clayton Park West, Cole Harbour, Cole Harbour - Dartmouth, Fairview - Clayton Park, Halifax Armdale, Halifax Atlantic, Hammonds Plains - Lucasville, Preston, Timberlea - Prospect

PC (5): Dartmouth East, Eastern Passage, Sackville - Cobequid, Sackville - Uniacke, Waverley - Fall River - Beaver Bank

NDP (5): Dartmouth North, Dartmouth South, Halifax Chebucto, Halifax Citadel, Halifax Needham

[Benjamin Frank]

Cape Breton (8 ridings)
Total Votes: 61,822
Liberal: 24,696  39.9%
P.C:      23,679  38.3
NDP:    12,865  20.8
Green:        72
Other:       510

Even being aware of the vagaries of first past the post, I find it hard to believe the Liberals received the most votes on Cape Breton but lost in seats 5-2 to the P.Cs.

Unusual indeed; seems to come down to very poor third-place Tory showings in both Sydney - Membertou & Cape Breton - Whitney Pier, combined with fairly marginal Tory wins in Glace Bay - Dominion, Richmond & Cape Breton East, along with sharply reduced Tory majorities in every seat they previously held (including Cape Breton East) and the loss of Northside - Westmount on a huge swing.

Allan MacMaster & Keith Bain (two long-standing MLAs) suffered much smaller swings against them than Murray Ryan & Brian Comer (the 2019 by-election winners); had Alfie MacLeod & Eddie Orrell, the two previous members, not ventured into federal politics I wonder what the vote on the Island would have looked like.


One question: you count 22 ridings in the Metro area while I count 21; am curious as to the one on which we differ. The ones I include are as follows:

Lib (11): Bedford Basin, Bedford South, Clayton Park West, Cole Harbour, Cole Harbour - Dartmouth, Fairview - Clayton Park, Halifax Armdale, Halifax Atlantic, Hammonds Plains - Lucasville, Preston, Timberlea - Prospect

PC (5): Dartmouth East, Eastern Passage, Sackville - Cobequid, Sackville - Uniacke, Waverley - Fall River - Beaver Bank

NDP (5): Dartmouth North, Dartmouth South, Halifax Chebucto, Halifax Citadel, Halifax Needham

Eastern Shore.

[DistingFlyer]

Looking only at the eighteen ridings to change hands, here's the vote share:

Lib: 40.7% to 34.9% (-6%), 13 net losses (+1, -14)
PC: 35.5% to 41.5% (+6%), 13 net gains (+15, -2)
NDP: 21.4% to 17.9% (-4%), 1 net loss (+1, -2)
Other: 2.4% to 5.7% (+3%), 1 gain

[beesley]

As usual, swings in various directions; 42 between PCs & Liberals, 10 between NDP & Liberals, two between PCs & NDP and one between Independent & PCs.

Twelve seats swung from Tory to Liberal: four in Cape Breton, five in Metro and three on the mainland (specifically, Pictou County).

Biggest PC-Lib swing: Northside - Westmount (26.3%) (the only Liberal gain)
Biggest PC-Lib swing without the seat changing hands: Cape Breton East (16.0%)
Biggest PC-Lib swing in a Liberal-held seat: Cole Harbour - Dartmouth (6.4%)


Thirty seats swung from Liberal to Conservative, most of them on the rural mainland but a few in HRM suburbs and even a couple in Cape Breton.

Biggest Lib-PC swing: Digby - Annapolis (21.7%) (PC gain)
Biggest Lib-PC swing without the seat changing hands: Annapolis (16.9%)
Biggest Lib-PC swing in a Tory-held seat: Cumberland South (19.3%)


Eight seats swung from Liberal to NDP, all of them in Metro.

Biggest Lib-NDP swing: Dartmouth South (14.5%) (NDP held)
Biggest Lib-NDP swing without the seat changing hands: Fairview - Clayton Park (4.8%)


Two seats swung from NDP to Liberal, both in Cape Breton: Sydney - Membertou (10.5%) & Cape Breton Centre - Whitney Pier (3.9%). The Liberals already held the former, and came close to gaining the latter.


The two seats to swing from NDP to Tory were the two ridings flipped in by-elections: Sackville - Cobequid (14.8%) & Truro - Bible Hill - etc. (21.6%). The PC majority in Sackville was actually larger than that in the by-election.


Overall, Liberals dropped to third in two ridings (Glace Bay - Dominion & Sackville - Cobequid) while the NDP dropped to third in three (Pictou West, Chester - St. Margaret's & Truro). Tories fell to fourth in Cumberland North.

I know that you've all you following this thread have been waiting on baited breath, unable to sleep, for Frank's cabinet prediction.  Okay, none of you have, but you all should have!


I don't think this will be completely correct as I don't think the cabinet will actually be this large or that these will be all actual ministries.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Tim Houston
2.Finance, Allan MacMaster
3.Economic Development and Trade, Steve Craig
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Trevor Boudreau
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Kim Masland
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Tory Rushton
7.Energy and Mines, Keith Bains
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Aquaculture, John Lohr
9.Environment, Barbara Adams
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Karla MacFarlane
11.Service Nova Scotia, Brian Wong
12.Children and Family Development, Jill Besler
13.Social Development and Housing, Larry Harrison
14.Education, Susan Corkum Greek
15.Advanced Education and Training, Colton LeBlanc
16.Health, Tim Halman
17.Municiptal Affairs, Brad Johns
18.Indigenous Relations, Michelle Thompson
19.Justice and Public Safety, Becky Durham

Speaker, Pat Dunn
Whip, Dave Ritcey
Caucus Chair, Tom Taggart

My track record is to get a lot of the names right (though far from all) for getting into the cabinet, but to get them in the wrong positions.

Pat Dunn is the only P.C MLA to have previously served in cabinet, all be it in a fairly junior ministry (health promotion and protection) but I think he loses out in Pictou based on the numbers game.

Keith Bain is the only other P.C MLA to have been on the government benches, but he was, I believe, the Deputy Speaker at the time.

Part of the problem with forming a cabinet taking gender into consideration is that this is the gender breakdown of the P.C MLAs

Mainland: 12 men, 8 women
Halifax: 5 men, 1 woman
Cape Breton, 5 men

So, providing representation for Halifax and Cape Breton in the cabinet makes it harder to appoint more women to the cabinet.

(In addition to the 9 women in the P.C caucus, there are 5 women in the Liberal caucus, 5 in the NDP caucus and the one independent, so 20 of the 55 MLAs are women.)

This is quality content from both of you. Thanks!

[Hatman 🍁]

the three ridings with the biggest turnout were the minority franco ridings. Any reason why they have a larger turnout?

[DistingFlyer]

I'd mentioned earlier that Colton LeBlanc's showing in Argyle was one of the best of all time (for any party); here's how he stands against the other biggest individual victories in NS:


Largest Margin of Victory (%)
69.8% - Paul MacEwan (Lib) in Cape Breton Nova (1993)
69.4% - Frank Corbett (NDP) in Cape Breton Centre (2009)
68.1% - Zach Churchill (Lib) in Yarmouth (2013)
68.0% - Colton LeBlanc (PC) in Argyle (2021)
65.9% - Geoff MacLellan (Lib) in Glace Bay (2013)
65.4% - Murray Scott (PC) in Cumberland South (2006)

Largest Share of the Vote
82.4% - Colton LeBlanc (PC) in Argyle (2021)
82.3% - Zach Churchill (Lib) in Yarmouth (2013)
82.2% - Paul MacEwan (Lib) in Cape Breton Nova (1993)
80.4% - Geoff MacLellan (Lib) in Glace Bay (2013)
80.1% - Frank Corbett (NDP) in Cape Breton Centre (2009)


Looking purely at Tory candidates, their previous record for largest vote share was 77.0% for Neil LeBlanc in Argyle in 1999.