Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[Badger]

This dem is pro gun and pro life.  Means nothing and if he wins it will be by a few votes

He's also Pro Medicaid expansion, has been friendly about gays working in government, and opposes right Wing attempts 2 reconstruct brownback's failed Kansas experiment in Louisiana. Plus it's Louisiana. Big effing win for Democrats, and yet another well-deserved embarrassment for the mango Mussolini.

[Badger]

Yeah. Dems doing badly in the suburbs is really bad for us if it keeps up, and there's no denying that. That's why we need Nikki Haley on the ballot in 2024.

Just because the GOP nominee is a female who so happens to not be White American doesn't mean suburban voters are suddenly going to flock back.

Citation needed to show any examples where the rule rather than the exception.

Sure, but she also has the kind of tempermant, demeanor, and common sense conservative policies that have won us the suburbs before. Plus, one of the big reasons for the suburban trend left is that the GOP is perceived as intolerant of non-white voters (a problem as the suburbs become more diverse). She can help fix that perception.

It's more than that.  The suburbs have moved left because the issues that face suburban voters are different than those of years past.  It's not Boomers and Silents mad about tax increases anymore.  Now, it's about Millennials and Xers being mad about student loan debt, healthcare costs, and climate change.

Explain why so many suburbs split tickets for state level Republicans in 2018 then.

Citation needed that any such instances were the rule rather than the exception.

[Badger]

JBE only won CD-02.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1195933720462725120?s=20

These results also say much about gerrymandering , of course.

[Badger]

Would Scalise or Kennedy have won?

Probably Kennedy as he is rather popular Statewide, iirc. Scalise, Maybe

[Badger]

Well I didn't get into the weeds of the primary map. My bad I guess, but this is still pretty surprising.

A Democrat doing poorly in rural areas is the least surprising development of the past three years

Stop

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1196102881004441600?s=20

And the parish will probably flip to JBE once provisionals and any outstanding absentees are counted.

[Badger]

I compared JBE's overperformance from 2016 in each parish compared to that of the state as a whole (which was 22.24%). That is, it's a comparison of what he actually got vs. what he "should" have gotten had there been a uniform swing. The results were wild.

https://i.imgur.com/0ovnq9P.png

So Edwards did worse, relatively speaking, than Clinton in much of rural LA. That is... not what I was expecting. At all.

"Relatively" being the key word.  No county gave JBE a worse result than Clinton had.  In LaSalle, JBE nearly doubled support compared to Clinton's very poor showing but the county is still red in that map.  I don't know how much in the rural areas black turnout declined compared to whites; that would make a difference in some places in the north.  In the south, Lafayette suburbs didn't swing to the Democrats nearly as much as suburbs in the eastern part of the state, or around Lake Charles (judging by the swing in Calcasieu).  Very rural Cameron Parish though went from 8.75% Clinton to 24.7% JBE.

Thank you for clarifying that. I had thought from the above post you are responding to that JBE actually performed worst overall than Clinton in rural parishes. And I was all like.....wut

[Badger]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

It dawned on me that a trend map would be really informative here, so one can see how much of this shift in rural areas was a result of rispone Performing markedly better than David Vitter, versus an actual receding of support for Democrats.

[Badger]

The final swing map:



As I mentioned earlier, I'm still impressed by the scope of JBE's turnout apparatus. Even if he had done no better than he did in 2015 in the counties that swung to him, he'd have pulled this off by around 10k votes. Not that he did anything whatsoever to justify the rural swings against him, but he lost just the "right" amount of them to still pull this thing off even if Orleans, Jefferson & St Tammany hadn't moved in his direction.

It dawned on me that a trend map would be really informative here, so one can see how much of this shift in rural areas was a result of rispone Performing markedly better than David Vitter, versus an actual receding of support for Democrats.

Atlas Trend ("change in D-R margin from the previous election relative to the national change in D-R margin"):



Though you may have had something else in mind (i.e. county swings relative to state swing).

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

[Badger]

Correct Adam. Sorry I didn't clarify that.

Hopefully you can see why I think it would be a genuinely worthwhile analysis as opposed to just going down an election nerd rabbit-hole?

Yep.

Here's the map you're looking for (trend; county swing relative to statewide swing):

Thanks Griffin! Excellent job as always.

So it appears Edwards collapse among rural voters was quite real. Scarily so, in fact.

But just like in Kentucky and the 2018 midterms, Suburban areas turning on Republicans largely carried the day for Democrats.

[Badger]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

[Badger]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

Thanks Adam. I think I forgot how sparsely populated those largely African-American Mississippi River counties are.

Do you agree with dingo Joe's assessment that the map you proposed probably doesn't have enough population to sustain a full congressional district?

[Badger]

Although the weirder trend is Lafayette parish considering it swung towards Clinton in 2016.

Yeah, even though Lafayette has the fewest minorities of any urban core parish, it's still pretty well educated, so I thought 55-45 would have been more likely. 

Is it that well educated relatively speaking? I asked because I too was confused by how relatively poor Edwards did there.

[Badger]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

Thanks Adam. I think I forgot how sparsely populated those largely African-American Mississippi River counties are.

Do you agree with dingo Joe's assessment that the map you proposed probably doesn't have enough population to sustain a full congressional district?

Looking at the more detailed map that Adam provided, and based on 2018 estimates, if you included all of Ouachita and Franklin and kicked out Tensas and all of Natchitoches, you'd be about spot on.

Hey, we need Natchitoches in the district since JBE won it.  Keep its small population in exchange for a portion of some other more Republican County. It would be nice to have a remotely competitive District in the state.

And another news, Livingston Parish continues to prove it is a particularly awful place.

[Badger]

You know guys, we have a 2020 Redistricting thread for Louisiana up  already in The Redistricting and Demographics board. This discussion might be more productive there.

Booooo! Spoil sport!