Louisiana Nov 16, 2019 Run-Off Election Results thread

[DINGO Joe]

The only reason why it's so close is due to lower turnout, if it happened on the same day as KY and MS, Dems would have benefitted the most, but JBE will win

Yeah, I'm willing to bet big that Louisiana has higher turnout than either of those states.

[DINGO Joe]

Can Edwards net another 4K from the remaining Baton Rouge votes? If he does, Democrats will have won the overall vote for the 2019 gubernatorial races.

Mississippi is always crap at updating their numbers, the final margin there looks to be about 45,000, but I ain't digging county by county to figure it out.

[DINGO Joe]

Man, it's hard enough watching election results when it's close, but imagine being at a house party watching LSU playing and letting Ole Miss stay in the game way too long, while at the same time following election returns. Like being on two roller coasters at the same time.

[DINGO Joe]

Man, it's hard enough watching election results when it's close, but imagine being at a house party watching LSU playing and letting Ole Miss stay in the game way too long, while at the same time following election returns. Like being on two roller coasters at the same time.

Can’t wait till Oregon takes you guys down in the playoffs

Do they still play football on the West coast?

[DINGO Joe]

For those of you who weren't following, here is each parish's 2015/2019 results + swings in spreadsheet form:

2015/2019 LA Gov Results/Swings

Biggest Swings:
Cameron: 48.85 points
Avoyelles: 38.61 points
Jeff Davis: 37.88 points
Evangeline: 36.28 points
Allen: 35.15 points
Beauregard: 33.06 points
Vernon: 31.50 points
Vermilion: 30.32 points
St. Martin: 29.78 points
Acadia: 29.05 points

Can't even put here what my wife said about the rural parishes, makes me sound like Nathan by comparison.

[DINGO Joe]

Good thing that JBE pulled through, but those rural 2015 -> 2019 trends do not bode well for a far-left candidate like Warren or Sanders next year.

Obama was not wrong yesterday:

It needs more of a centrist, or Trump wins again powered by these rural voters.

Ya see, John Bel is a very nice centrist and it's not exactly working for him either.  Racist hicks are racist.

[DINGO Joe]

There's been emphasis on Edwards getting his vote out, but the highest turnout I found for any parish was mega racist hick LaSalle at a whopping 66.4%.  The only parish above 60% that I've seen so far.

[DINGO Joe]

There's been emphasis on Edwards getting his vote out, but the highest turnout I found for any parish was mega racist hick LaSalle at a whopping 66.4%.  The only parish above 60% that I've seen so far.

Turnout in the first round in LaSalle has 65.0%, only a slight increase. Orleans however, went from 38.7% to 49.2%, quite a notable difference, considering statewide turnout went from 45.9% to 50.7%. Parishes like East Baton Rogue, Jefferson, and Caddo also had considerable turnout increases, while increases in turnout in the parishes that Rispone won handedly tended to be smaller, with a few exceptions

I decided to run the numbers since I was interested in observing how the margin would've changed if the turnout remained constant with the first round, and found that the margin of victory would've decreased from 2.67% to 1.33%, a fairly small decrease, but still large enough that it could've been a decisive factor in a closer election.

Good work, now pick a better display name.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1196102881004441600?s=20

And the parish will probably flip to JBE once provisionals and any outstanding absentees are counted.

It's actually a subunit of Jefferson Parish (East Bank and West Bank).  The early vote is never merged into the precinct vote and since the early vote is more D than election day in Jefferson, it did flip.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Probably about 52-48 Rispone, but it's undersized and would have to take in more piney woods south of there (piney woods=white)

[DINGO Joe]

How much of the swing in LA-1 was just from losing the Vitter homeboy effect? Was any of it from that?

A little bit and Rispone did a little better in EBR because he's in Baton Rouge.  There are demographic shifts going on also as New Orleans gets a little whiter and the suburbs get a little more diverse (less white)  over the last decade.   

[DINGO Joe]

Do we know the final racial breakdown of the electorate and what percentage the Governor got with white and black voters?

It'll post on the sec of state website when the returns are finals

[DINGO Joe]

I'm truly wondering what an independent LA congressional map would look like.

Assuming partisan & racial parity are the primary goals, maybe something like this (2 strong black-plurality CVAP districts, a Northern LA district that's like R+7, & 3 safe GOP districts):

Any idea how Edwards did in that perspective Northern District in blue which includes Shreveport? My very wild ass guesstimate is he either ran about even or narrowly w o n.

Just ran the rough numbers in DRA: McCain carried it by 9 and it's a R+6 district based on 2012/16 (guessing Romney won it by 7-8 and Trump by 10-12).

I'd guess a 5-6 point win for Rispone just by eyeballing it.

Thanks Adam. I think I forgot how sparsely populated those largely African-American Mississippi River counties are.

Do you agree with dingo Joe's assessment that the map you proposed probably doesn't have enough population to sustain a full congressional district?

Looking at the more detailed map that Adam provided, and based on 2018 estimates, if you included all of Ouachita and Franklin and kicked out Tensas and all of Natchitoches, you'd be about spot on.

[DINGO Joe]

Although the weirder trend is Lafayette parish considering it swung towards Clinton in 2016.

Yeah, even though Lafayette has the fewest minorities of any urban core parish, it's still pretty well educated, so I thought 55-45 would have been more likely. 

[DINGO Joe]

Although the weirder trend is Lafayette parish considering it swung towards Clinton in 2016.

Yeah, even though Lafayette has the fewest minorities of any urban core parish, it's still pretty well educated, so I thought 55-45 would have been more likely. 

Is it that well educated relatively speaking? I asked because I too was confused by how relatively poor Edwards did there.

Yeah it has a university and functions as the medical center for all of Acadiana West of the Atchafalaya.

[DINGO Joe]

To hear Rep. Steve Scalise tell it, President Donald Trump nearly won the Louisiana governor's race all by himself.

"Eddie Rispone made up a 22-point disadvantage over the last month because of President Trump's involvement," the Louisiana Republican congressman said of the party's gubernatorial nominee. "Clearly, President Trump's involvement made a big difference at helping close that massive gap."

LMAO!

Well, Rispone was 20 points behind in the primary 47-27.  I'm sure the Abraham voters wouldn't have swung behind Rispone without Trump leading the way.

Yeah, Scalisce is a worthless ball licker  just like the rest of the Republicans.

[DINGO Joe]

Now to go all BRTD

I vote in Orleans precinct 14-3.  Though in Orleans, it part of the city tacked on the Scalisce suburban district because white. It's an Uptown precinct that's 89% white with voter registration 40%D  26R 34O for 2019

Voting History
2012--Obama 49-45 over Romney
2016--Clinton 60-30 over Trump
2015--Edwards 74-26 over Vitter (who was rep for district at one time)
2019--Edwards 83-17 over Rispone

One asterisk is that early voting is never merged into precinct totals, though it probably mirrors election day voting.

[DINGO Joe]

To hear Rep. Steve Scalise tell it, President Donald Trump nearly won the Louisiana governor's race all by himself.

"Eddie Rispone made up a 22-point disadvantage over the last month because of President Trump's involvement," the Louisiana Republican congressman said of the party's gubernatorial nominee. "Clearly, President Trump's involvement made a big difference at helping close that massive gap."

LMAO!

Never liked Scalise, but before this never thought about him being an idiot. Disappoined. And, interesting - what magic Trump has, that seemingly reasonable (though far different in their views from what's good in my opinion) people begin to tell such foolishness?

Keep in mind that it was the swing in Scalise's district that largely reelected Edwards.