German Elections & Politics

[Hydera]

What's with the super high FDP vote?

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Schleswig-Holstein_2017#Ergebnisse

If we look at Schleswig-holstein's election.


Probably the right-leaning pirate party voters back in 2012 going from to FDP. (Meanwhile the left leaning ones seem to be turning to die linke)

[Hydera]

So why exactly has Schulz and the SPD crashed?

the "Schulz-train" was hype that was dependent on some CDU, AfD, Die Linke, Grunen voters going to SPD. TLDR: those voters went home when the hype died down.  He made a statement months ago that he would form a Red-Red-Green coalition if they had the votes which caused CDU voters to go home and once those other party voters realized that SPD wasn't going to top CDU they went home making everything just where it was before Schulz.

[Hydera]

What's going to happen for the Cabinet? Will Lindner get the foreign department and the Greens get the finance minister?

More likely the other way around.

Greens getting the finance would be like clowns running the asylum.

[Hydera]

http://www.rp-online.de/politik/deutschland/bundestagswahl/nach-bundestagswahl-2017-fluechtlings-obergrenze-ist-fuer-die-gruenen-absolutes-no-go-aid-1.7108498


Greens: No to migrant cap

This isnt your 2000's green party.

[Hydera]

https://twitter.com/sciencefiles/status/1051557856904966146

So the voting blocs didn't change at all from 40 years ago. Compared to the 2013 the conservative parties gained 25 seats while the left parties have the same amount of seats as before. While the CSU lost 3% to the Greens (much less than I expected), each CSU, FW and AfD gained 3% from non-voters, which seems to be the main reason for their strong performance.

Regarding the CSU: Yes, it's a disastrous result for a party that is used to winning majorities. But considering the circumstances, it could have been far worse. In fact, the CSU did better than most people expected and lost only 1% compared to last year while the CDU lost 6-7% nationwide. Just imagine what they could have achieved if Merkel hadn't fought Seehofer so hard on some meaningless stuff.

It's also pretty funny that many CDU politicians now say that the AfD is losing support and that the real opponent are the Greens. That's why they want to stop the "right-wing talk" and focus on the centre. Do they even realize why the AfD underperformed in Bavaria???

Its funnier how people are talking about a sort of Leftwing surge in Bavaria when SPD+Green+Linke actually dropped from 31.3% in 2013 to 30.3%.  One leftwing party cannibalizing another while the total drops by 1% is not a success.

[Hydera]

If blue-collar workers want to support the AfD, it's not clear what SPD can do to win them back, if those specific blue-collar workers were ever SPD to begin with. Join in saying "Islam does not belong in Germany"? Yet in almost all countries, some blue-collar workers are traditional or radical conservatives.

Is there such a thing as a radical conservative?

Promoting assimilation rather than multiculturalism, I guess.

Social Democrats need to learn that being pro-labor rights and pro-social welfare doesn't translate into being pro-multiculturalism and anti-patriotism.

Social Democrats tend to over estimate how many voters would actually leave if they decided to switch their position on mass migration. Sure a lot of pro-mass migration voters might switch to further left parties. But if you compare Denmark to Norway. Because the social democrats in Denmark are closer to the right on immigration compared to Sweden. the total leftwing bloc is almost 50%/50% with that of the Right bloc. Compared to Sweden where the left bloc got 41%.

[Hydera]

germany is ready for green-red-red aka portugal coalition

Nope, SPD was leading in the polls and then Schulz said he would make a Red-Red-Green coalition and he lost steam afterwards.