Guns VS Abortion Vs Tax Policy

[Bismarck]

Which of these three issues gains the republicans the most votes? Which gains them the least? Do more people vote republican for social issues, economic issues, or something else?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I think guns and abortion bring very loyal voters, while the tax policy voter pool is broader yet a more fickle coalition.

[Bojack Horseman]

Abortion. Half the GOP base are single-issue culture warriors from the Pat Buchanan/Dave Agema wing of the Republican Party.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Easily taxes, but what Crab Cake said.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Depends on the State. Guns can be very influential in rural states.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

Which of these three issues gains the republicans the most votes?

Racism.

Followed by abortion then guns.

Considering how many people vote Republican that pay little or no Federal income tax I would say tax policy is way down the list.  Of course a lot of them are delusional enough to think they pay taxes or will one day so that is an argument against my theory.  I just think race and religion are much more durable rallying cries.

[RINO Tom]

Well, Republicans did quite well in 2014, no?  Let's look at the exit polls.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/2014/US/house/exitpoll

TAX (ECONOMIC) POLICY:

Republicans won only 43% of voters who earned under $50,000, which is understandable, as those folks probably aren't going to be too respondent to GOP economic policy.  However, they only made up 36% of the electorate.  64% of voters made over $50,000...

Republicans won 55% of voters who earned over $50,000 and under $100,000, a noticeable improvement.  They won an even higher percentage of voters (57%) who earned over $100,000.  These two groups together far outnumbered the previous, poorer demographic.  So, I wouldn't recommend Republicans dumping their long-held economic agenda anytime soon.

ABORTION:

I'd assume those who attend church more often are likely to be more pro-life, on average.  Republicans won almost 60% of the vote with folks who attended church once a week or more ... but those people only made up 40% of the total electorate.  It's worth noting that Republicans also won majorities of people who attended church a few times a month AND a few times a year.  The only group they didn't win was folks who attended "never" (only 18% of the electorate).  While the (presumably strongly pro-life) avid church goers are obviously a significant part of the GOP coalition, they are outnumbered by those who are attracted to GOP economic policy (there is obviously some overlap).

Additionally, 52% thought abortion should be "legal" (only two options given), and Republicans still won 33% from that pro-choice slice of voters.  Out of the 43% who answered "illegal," Republicans lost 25% of them to Democrats.  I think people vote on abortion a LOT less than is made out.

GUNS:

There weren't any questions asked directly about guns or gun control, but I think it's safe to say that most of your pro-gun control folks are concentrated deep in cities, most of your avid Second Amendment defenders are concentrated in rural areas and you'd probably get a mix in suburbs.  Folks in small cities and rural areas gave 57% of their votes to the Republicans, but that demographic only made up 16% of the electorate!  Conversely, Republicans won almost as high of a percentage (55%) from suburban voters, a group that made up a whopping 52% of all voters.  I think it's safe to assume that suburban Republicans (who quite simply outnumber rural Republicans) would probably put a higher emphasis on tax policy and fiscal conservatism than they would on gun rights and abortion.

I think it's so obviously tax policy that it's not even funny, even if the crazies (therefore the loudest among us) happen to be really passionate about the other two.  I think you all underestimate how many upper-middle class parents living in some upscale suburb don't really like to talk politics, aren't too extreme in any of their views and then go vote for the party that's going to let them keep more of their paycheck.

Oh yeah, I could have just not typed all that stuff and said that 45% of voters said "the economy" was their most important issue, a group that Republicans won.  The next highest was healthcare at 25%, a group Republicans lost by 20 points.

[RINO Tom]

Which of these three issues gains the republicans the most votes?

Racism.

Followed by abortion then guns.

Considering how many people vote Republican that pay little or no Federal income tax I would say tax policy is way down the list.  Of course a lot of them are delusional enough to think they pay taxes or will one day so that is an argument against my theory.  I just think race and religion are much more durable rallying cries.

Kind of depressing that after I typed my long response below, this is the type of brain-dead trash posts I'm arguing with.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

Which of these three issues gains the republicans the most votes?

Racism.

Followed by abortion then guns.

Considering how many people vote Republican that pay little or no Federal income tax I would say tax policy is way down the list.  Of course a lot of them are delusional enough to think they pay taxes or will one day so that is an argument against my theory.  I just think race and religion are much more durable rallying cries.

Kind of depressing that after I typed my long response below, this is the type of brain-dead trash posts I'm arguing with.

Kind of depressing some people can't tell time.  I posted before you did.

From your article...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Republican party is really white.  And even white non-college graduates who are on average in lower tax brackets are still voting heavily Republican... more so than more educated white people.

Did you hear Trumps announcement speech?  Have you seen his poll numbers for months?

[RINO Tom]

Which of these three issues gains the republicans the most votes?

Racism.

Followed by abortion then guns.

Considering how many people vote Republican that pay little or no Federal income tax I would say tax policy is way down the list.  Of course a lot of them are delusional enough to think they pay taxes or will one day so that is an argument against my theory.  I just think race and religion are much more durable rallying cries.

Kind of depressing that after I typed my long response below, this is the type of brain-dead trash posts I'm arguing with.

Kind of depressing some people can't tell time.  I posted before you did.

From your article...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Republican party is really white.  And even white non-college graduates who are on average in lower tax brackets are still voting heavily Republican... more so than more educated white people.

Did you hear Trumps announcement speech?  Have you seen his poll numbers for months?

And that's something the Republican Party needs to change.  However, college graduates form a larger chunk of the electorate than the general population.  Republicans are a very White party, but Whites tend to have higher incomes than other non-White groups.  Also, I might be proven wrong in the next several months, but as of now the vast majority of Republicans are NOT supporting Trump.  There's no denying that there's a nativist and maybe even "racist" element in the GOP base, but Trump is currently getting support from about 20% of the party.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

However, college graduates form a larger chunk of the electorate than the general population.

What does that mean and what are you basing that on?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Based on your own numbers high school drop outs, high school graduates and people with some college are a bigger group than college graduates.  If you define "college graduates" as college graduates plus postgraduate study then you are right by 1% point.  But that isn't relevant to the Republican party which is what this thread is about.  Notice that people with postgraduate education were more inclined to vote Democratic.  So taking that into account based on this poll most Republican voters don't have a college degree.

The Democratic party offers programs that disproportionately help people in the three lowest rungs yet if they are white they are the people least likely to vote Democratic.  Why is that?  Obviously dismissing the possibility of racism as "trash" isn't a serious analysis of the situation.

[RINO Tom]

However, college graduates form a larger chunk of the electorate than the general population.

What does that mean and what are you basing that on?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Based on your own numbers high school drop outs, high school graduates and people with some college are a bigger group than college graduates.  If you define "college graduates" as college graduates plus postgraduate study then you are right by 1% point.  But that isn't relevant to the Republican party which is what this thread is about.  Notice that people with postgraduate education were more inclined to vote Democratic.  So taking that into account based on this poll most Republican voters don't have a college degree.

The Democratic party offers programs that disproportionately help people in the three lowest rungs yet if they are white they are the people least likely to vote Democratic.  Why is that?  Obviously dismissing the possibility of racism as "trash" isn't a serious analysis of the situation.

It means that college graduates make up a disproportionately large chunk of the electorate than they do of the general population.  The majority of Republican voters, college graduates or not, are from suburban or urban areas.  That is clear in the exit polling.  So this image you're painting of the GOP's driving force being poor Whites on food stamps is pretty hard to believe.  I'd imagine that GOP voters with a college degree would weigh heavily toward caring more about fiscal issues.  That's just my assumption.  I'd imagine that GOP voters without one would be a lot more divided on what they care about the most (gun rights for rural voters, gay marriage or abortion for evangelicals, national security for ex-servicemen, etc.).  I bet when you tally it all up, the GOP gets more votes based on its tax policy than it does on any one other issue.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

However, college graduates form a larger chunk of the electorate than the general population.

It means that college graduates make up a disproportionately large chunk of the electorate than they do of the general population.

Okay.  Those two sentences don't mean the same thing.  The second sentence is a massive walk back of the first sentence.  Such a walk back in fact it makes the first sentence false in the context of this thread.

The majority of Republican voters, college graduates or not, are from suburban or urban areas.  That is clear in the exit polling.  So this image you're painting of the GOP's driving force being poor Whites on food stamps is pretty hard to believe.

Tom, you can't quote for the forum where I said anything of the sort.  As far as food stamps are concerned there are plenty of people of all races utilizing the program in urban, suburban, and rural areas.  Living in an urban or suburban area doesn't mean you have adequate access to healthcare sans Obamacare.  Living in an urban or suburban area doesn't mean you can afford to send your kid to college without someone assuming a crippling burden of student loans.  Being from an urban or suburban area doesn't mean you aren't afraid of being laid off at 50 and never being able to find a similar paying job again.

Tom, you are doing the opposite of what I'm doing.  You are trying to paint the people that would benefit from Democratic programs as "others."  That's always been the Republican trick.  No one likes to admit they need help.

And plenty of white people in urban and suburban areas paint affirmative action as the reason their precious little white daughter didn't get into Harvard.  Heck even a good number of otherwise liberal white Democrats are guilty of thinking that.  Even for the people who say taxes are their number one concern if you were to really dig down to the truth a chunk of them feel their taxes are getting taken from them and spent on lazy black and brown people... because, ya know, white people aren't poor.  I refer you to Reagan's south side of Chicaco welfare queen speech.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Which of these three issues gains the republicans the most votes?

Racism.

 brain-dead trash post

[Green Line]

Guns and abortion.  Tax policy is too difficult for most people to grasp and they don't decide their votes on it

You can't get good one-liners on tax policy like you can on abortion and guns

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Guns and abortion.  Tax policy is too difficult for most people to grasp and they don't decide their votes on it

You can't get good one-liners on tax policy like you can on abortion and guns

Read My Lips?

[Green Line]

Guns and abortion.  Tax policy is too difficult for most people to grasp and they don't decide their votes on it

You can't get good one-liners on tax policy like you can on abortion and guns

Read My Lips?

And look how that turned out for Republicans!

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Tax policy being difficult to grasp, yes, but people vote based on what their impression is of the general thing the candidates/parties are offering.  Also, the complexity of taxes makes calls for simplifying the tax code and getting rid of the IRS more salient.

[DemPGH]

Taxes is the one thing that unites them all, so I have to say that one.

If social issues really united them I think you'd see them getting behind lunatics like Huckabee, and back in the day Pat Robertson (before all the awful stuff about him became known). Meanwhile, cutting taxes has been a calling card through W. If you're a con, you start with that and then follow with God, guns, and granny's apple pie, or at least that's the formula.

[Taco Truck 🚚]

Taxes is the one thing that unites them all, so I have to say that one.

If social issues really united them I think you'd see them getting behind lunatics like Huckabee, and back in the day Pat Robertson (before all the awful stuff about him became known). Meanwhile, cutting taxes has been a calling card through W. If you're a con, you start with that and then follow with God, guns, and granny's apple pie, or at least that's the formula.

The question was what gets the most votes not what unites them all.  I don't think anything unites them all.  Just like I don't think anything unites all Democrats.

What is common amongst the top Republicans front runners?  Donald Trump's announcement speech denigrated Mexicans.  Can't think of a group Carson hasn't denigrated.  He makes it okay for white Republicans to say awful things about black people or at a minimum they can just quietly hide behind him.  Honestly if you took the bigotry vote out of Republicans how many would be left?  Fiorina is a business woman you would think her wheelhouse would be fiscal matters.  But what is she known for?  Her false outburst against Planned Parenthood.  A social issue.

Clearly fiscal conservatism is not a tenant of the Republican party.  What happened to the national debt under Reagan?  What happened to the deficit under Bush and "deficits don't matter" Cheney?

That is not to say fiscal matters aren't a concern for some conservatives but if you look at who is winning the current presidential primary if you ignore bigotry and social issues or rank them second I think you are kidding yourself.