New Thoughts on Future Party Coalitions in 20 years? (user search)
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  New Thoughts on Future Party Coalitions in 20 years? (search mode)
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Author Topic: New Thoughts on Future Party Coalitions in 20 years?  (Read 2796 times)
TNF
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« on: November 20, 2012, 07:31:17 PM »



Parties realign around economic issues after the Republicans accept same-sex marriage and abortion rights in the 2020s. The GOP of 2032 is ideologically where the DLC Democrats were in the 1990s, and the Democrats are to their left, standing about where the pre-Carter Democratic Party was in the late 1960s.

The South becomes more receptive to the Democrats in large part thanks to Democratic economic policy and an emphasis on integrating black, white, and brown working class voters under a single umbrella. The Republicans gradually pick off wealthier minority voters and white professionals, while the Democrats gain with a reinvigorated union movement in the South and Latino voters.
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TNF
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Posts: 13,440


« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2012, 01:15:41 PM »

You sure about SC being more Democratic than its neighbors? It's less reliant on manufacturing and has a greater military presence (plus the coast is very wealthy).

West Virginia will be interesting to watch. I'll assume that this is the Democratic floor, and though it will be Safe R in 2016 (barring Hillary being the Democrat and/or a Bachmann or Palin being the GOP nominee), the coal industry is kicking and screaming right now (which is what the big swing in coal country came from) just like tobacco did in the 90's (hence why Clinton did fairly poorly in VA/NC) and why the Great Plains had a giant Democratic shift in 1988. As coal dies off (and maybe if retirees get attracted to the Appalachians), maybe WV will come back home.

One can hope. I put SC and MS as lean Dem largely because of demographics. Honestly, if WV goes back to the Democrats, I can't imagine a scenario where Kentucky doesn't, too. We have basically the same demographics and neither state is right-to-work-for-less.

It should also be interesting to see how Arkansas trends if the Democrats become economic populists and the Republicans proper neoliberals.
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