Light Yagami
Newbie
Posts: 2
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« on: June 24, 2017, 11:58:43 PM » |
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I don't think the Republicans are in danger of losing Texas any time soon. Trump was the WORST possible fit for the state, Dems contested it somewhat, and there was supposed to be a rapid "emerging majority" which would make the state close this time. Trump still won it easily (10 points). The thing about Texas to remember
-Many of those voting for Gary Johnson were traditional Republicans (and some sanders supporters/potheads to be fair, but still) who will come home to Trump.
-I said before that many Democrats (blacks, some WWC) stayed home in the mid-west (look at drop in turnout in Iron Range for example and Northern Wisconsin) but same can be said for several Texas Suburbs.
-If you know anything about Texas Hispanics, it's that there not as D as Hispanics in other states. Many have been here for quite a while, and you have loads of protestants/evangelicals. In order for a Democrat to flip Texas (unless the Dems somehow start getting more rural whites to vote D) is for a over 40% Hispanic electorate which...wont happen for quite sometime. And even when it does, no guarantee they vote as Democrat as today.
-Texas is a giant state, and extremely hard to campaign in. Look at White, popular in Houston but no one knew who he was statewide. And outside of a the urban cities, the Democrat machine does not exist. Even getting weaker in South Texas (another thing, you saw swings to Trump in South Texas, Northern New Mexico, and Southern Colorado. Entirely Hispanic areas, reason for this is these areas are heavily working class obviously but also much more Americanized (nueovmexicos) and a similar pattern emerged there as seen throughout small town and rural America. So, the Democrats struggles with the WWC can easily be transplanted to these groups, which does throw a wrench in the whole "demographics is destiny" argument).
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