Does Trump Have a Ceiling of Support?

[RJEvans]

I'm really wondering if Trump has a ceiling of support. Looking at all the polls released since June 1, he's only polled higher than 43% in about five of them.

Furthermore, if we look at Clinton's drop in the polls over the last few weeks, those voters who no longer support Clinton are now by and large undecided. Very few went to Trump.

What's common in these polling averages? Trump struggles to get above certain thresholds. 44% in RCP, 43% in HuffPost, 38% in 538.

Given Trump's high unfavorable rating, does Trump have a ceiling of support? When will this materialize or become more evident? What's his ceiling of support?

538 Adjusted Polling Average
Clinton Peak July 12
Clinton: 43.1
Trump: 37.6

Today
Clinton: 41 (-2.1)
Trump: 37.6 (--)

Huffpost Pollster
Clinton peak June 21
Clinton: 46.3
Trump: 39.2

Today
Clinton 43.4 (-2.9)
Trump 39.8 (+0.6)

RCP 2 Way
Clinton Peak June 27
Clinton: 46.4
Trump: 39.6

Today
Clinton: 43.8 (-2.6)
Trump:  40.6 (+1)




If the recent polling is true, and most voters switched from Clinton to undecided, then it is likely Clinton will get the voters back with time.

Thoughts?

[dspNY]

I'm really wondering if Trump has a ceiling of support. Looking at all the polls released since June 1, he's only polled higher than 43% in about five of them.

Furthermore, if we look at Clinton's drop in the polls over the last few weeks, those voters who no longer support Clinton are now by and large undecided. Very few went to Trump.

What's common in these polling averages? Trump struggles to get above certain thresholds. 44% in RCP, 43% in HuffPost, 38% in 538.

Given Trump's high unfavorable rating, does Trump have a ceiling of support? When will this materialize or become more evident? What's his ceiling of support?

538 Adjusted Polling Average
Clinton Peak July 12
Clinton: 43.1
Trump: 37.6

Today
Clinton: 41 (-2.1)
Trump: 37.6 (--)

Huffpost Pollster
Clinton peak June 21
Clinton: 46.3
Trump: 39.2

Today
Clinton 43.4 (-2.9)
Trump 39.8 (+0.6)

RCP 2 Way
Clinton Peak June 27
Clinton: 46.4
Trump: 39.6

Today
Clinton: 43.8 (-2.6)
Trump:  40.6 (+1)

If the recent polling is true, and most voters switched from Clinton to undecided, then it is likely Clinton will get the voters back with time.

Thoughts?

44-45% is his absolute ceiling nationally IMO. He's been stuck on 40% in almost every poll going into the conventions and the convention is the only thing that gets him to the mid-40s. In all these polls, it is the Clinton # that fluctuates, which means those voters are either deciding on Clinton, a 3rd party candidate, or not voting. Trump is not a rational choice for most of them

[Seriously?]

Trump had a "ceiling" in the Republican primaries, too. It was "peak Trump" month after month after month. He managed to burst through it.

He was doomed. There was going to be a contested convention. He didn't have enough to get the nomination, etc., etc. etc.

Talk about a Trump "ceiling" at your own peril.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I guess it depends on whether we are underestimating the stupidity and bigotry of American voters.

[PresidentSamTilden]

I guess it depends on whether we are underestimating the stupidity and bigotry of American voters.

Also anger at the government and hopelessness about the future. It's getting more pervasive IMO...I doubt trump ever makes it this far without a healthy dose of it.

I believe I've seen polls where slightly over 50% of people said they will not vote for trump under any circumstances. He's a very polarizing guy, and he's more unpopular than popular. So I don't think he will get over 50% of the vote. Other than that though, i'm just speculating.

[Hammy]

Trump had a "ceiling" in the Republican primaries, too. It was "peak Trump" month after month after month. He managed to burst through it.

He was doomed. There was going to be a contested convention. He didn't have enough to get the nomination, etc., etc. etc.

Talk about a Trump "ceiling" at your own peril.

Trump's ceiling during the primaries was said to be at 40-45%. He got 44.8%. So that was absolutely correct.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump had a "ceiling" in the Republican primaries, too. It was "peak Trump" month after month after month. He managed to burst through it.

He was doomed. There was going to be a contested convention. He didn't have enough to get the nomination, etc., etc. etc.

Talk about a Trump "ceiling" at your own peril.

Trump's ceiling during the primaries was said to be at 40-45%. He got 44.8%. So that was absolutely correct.

And those numbers were inflated by Cruz/Kasich voters staying home when both of those candidates dropped out.  Had the challenge continued though all primaries, Trump's vote share would be several points less.

[Seriously?]

Trump had a "ceiling" in the Republican primaries, too. It was "peak Trump" month after month after month. He managed to burst through it.

He was doomed. There was going to be a contested convention. He didn't have enough to get the nomination, etc., etc. etc.

Talk about a Trump "ceiling" at your own peril.

Trump's ceiling during the primaries was said to be at 40-45%. He got 44.8%. So that was absolutely correct.

Not quite. The theory was that Trump could not get 50%+ in any state. That meme eroded when the primaries forwarded to the Northeast and then IN, which cleared the deck for Trump as the nominee.