Denmark Parliamentary Election - June 18, 2015

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Danish opposition parties to get combined 50.6% of vote vs 49.4% for government bloc, according to Greens poll published newspaper Borsen.
Opposition leader Lars Loekke Rasmussen’s Liberal Party to get 19.5% of vote vs 21.9% in Greens poll earlier this month: Borsen
Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s Social Democrats to get 24.8% of vote vs 25.5% in Greens poll earlier this month: Borsen

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s Social Democrat-led bloc leads opposition 50.5% to 49.1%, according to Voxmeter poll published by Ritzau.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) -- Parties supporting Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt backed by 51.6% of voters in Wilke poll vs. 48.4% for bloc led by Liberal Party leader Lars Lokke Rasmussen, Jyllands-Posten reports ahead of June 18 vote.

[jaichind]

Any links on results when they come in ?

[jaichind]

Is it not possible for Blues to win in terms of seats and votes in Denmark proper but for Reds to come out ahead in total seats since Reds will most likely win 3-1 in Faroe Islands and Greenland? If a Red government is formed this way how would  Denmark proper react ?

[jaichind]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

They are allowed to publish this even as people are still voting ?

[jaichind]

Live streams for the two main channels. I obviously can't check whether they work outside Denmark.

DR: http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/live/live.htm

TV2: http://play.tv2.dk/live/tv-2-news/#tv-2-news?icid=TV%202%20PLAY:big

Works in NYC

[jaichind]

Actually Metroxpress has just published their first exit poll: http://www.mx.dk/nyheder/danmark/story/15713210

2 126 respondents asked from 9.10 to 15.30

Narrow Red Bloc win (90-89) if North Atlantic polls go as expected

An exit poll based on 45% turnout (15:30) is not really useful, considering final turnout will be 87%.

Would not that work even more to the advantage of the Reds since the working class will be voting later in the day due to their work schedule?

[jaichind]

                       Å      C      O      I       Ø     A      B      F      V
DR                   9       6     33   14     14    45    9       9     36
TV2                 9        6    32    15     15    45    9       9     35

[jaichind]

The count seems pretty slow.

[jaichind]

Well, in TØNDER it seems DPP is +18% with 14.6% of the vote in which I do find relevent.  It is clear in Southern Jutland DPP is doing very well.

[jaichind]

Where do you guys see total votes ?

I am using

http://www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/valg2015/resultat

But that does not seem to tabulate total votes.  I have to look at each district at a time.

[jaichind]

TV2 prognosis seems to be Blue 90 Red 85.

[jaichind]

So there was a shy DPP effect in the exit polls.

[jaichind]

A government with 19.5% of voters behind it doesn't sound very impressive to me at least.

And the same party lost 7% of the vote share from the previous election.  Usually when you are in the opposition and then lose 7% of the vote from the previous election it implies you should stay in opposition. 

[jaichind]

So in Denmark Proper it is 90-85 Blues.  But TV2 seems to indicate that Reds won all 4 seats in Faroe Islands and Greenland so it is 90-89 for Blues.  Is this true? What happen to the Union Party in Faroe Islands ?