How likely is a double digit win for Hillary?

[Bull Moose Base]

Rand Paul would have to run third party for her to win by double digits.

Or just run second party.

In all seriousness, each of the prospective establishment choices has some risk of triggering a third party run that could do it, and the other options could trigger it one-on-one. That said, I think there's a fairly slim chance of it. But I'd call it a 50/50 chance right now of a >5 Hillary win (the <5 including her losing).

[Bull Moose Base]

Yeah the idea that Hillary will pick a running mate to boost her seems ridiculous and there doesn't even seem to be anyone who would do so. Why would a minority running mate boost her? She will on the other hand avoid picking someone who could hurt, and anyone who was transparently picked for a geographic or demographic political motive carries that risk. I have said Gary Locke will be on her short list but he's easy to justify on the merits- he's a 2-term governor with experience as a cabinet member and ambassador to the biggest country in the world.

Speaking of Washington state, I'd add Patti Murray to the list of VPs because I think a big lead affects the VP pick more than the other way around and if Hillary's lead is high single digits for example, she could safely pick Murray.

Some people have mentioned a Clinton-Warren ticket (Bill Maher is the latest.) That seems more unlikely but not impossible if Sanders runs in a primary and the base needs to be shored up. Seems doubtful though. DeBlasio seems more likely.

Speaking of NY, I assume she will also look at switching her voter registration to DC a la Cheney 2000 if DeBlasio, Cuomo or Gillibrand appealed to her as a running mate.

Kaine seems like a pretty safe pick too. (Not sure why someone lumped him in with McAuliffe) He'd probably rank higher if he hadn't been the first high-ranking official to endorse Obama in 2008. But if he's the smartest pick in a close race, Hillary is  smart enough to not care.

[Bull Moose Base]

De Blasio would be another dream of mine.

Why?

[Bull Moose Base]

If she chooses a latino running mate, her upside will be particularily high. And the answer is a resounding yes, very likely I think. Very likely as in 20-25% of the time. (Just a wild guess right now though.)

I sure hope she picks Julian Castro. That'd be a Palin-esque pick.

Remember when Sarah Palin went to Harvard Law School?  Because I sure don't.

Dubya has degrees from Harvard AND Yale. He is the genius president of our time.

Maybe that's a little hyperbolic, but he's certainly not as stupid as the media likes to insinuate.

Oh, I agree. I'm not insinuating that Castro is dumb or anything either. But, untested guys like him will get eviscerated under the pressure. Whether it's by overshadowing the lead on the ticket (Palin) or just completely cracking.

Sarah Palin's problem was that she was an idiot.  It wouldn't matter how experienced she was.  And, she didn't just overshadow McCain, she overshadowed him by making a fool of herself.  That's a key point to make.  

I've actually talked to Julian Castro briefly a couple of years ago.  He's quite impressive.  It's ridiculous to compare him to Sarah Palin.  The reason he has no chance of being VP is that he's not a Governor, Senator or high profile Federal official.  Maybe that shouldn't be a threshold qualification, but it is.

Honestly, I think this VP talk is stupid.  I don't want a VP selected for their race, gender or political appeal.  It ought to be the best person for the job.  If you pick that person, everything will take care of itself.

I wonder how Hispanics feel about all the condescending "a brown token with few qualifications will win the brown votes" talk among white liberals. I'd be pissed if I were seen only for the color of my skin, rather than my accomplishments.

Maybe they don't find it condescending, I dunno, but it could backfire.

In numerous polls, at least in a couple of polls conducted by the Pew Research Center/Pew's Hispanic Trends Center, latinos have expressed their laments that they don't have a national latino leader yet. A VP candidate endorsed wholeheartedly by Hillary could easily and rapidly become such a leader (just like the inexperienced Palin almost immediately became the Tea Party leader shortly after the 2008 election). A Hillary candidacy would probably raise the anemic latino turnout in 2012 at 48% by a few pecentage points, perhaps all the way up to 55-57%. However, I'm pretty sure that the only way to succeed with what right now seems like an almost impossible task, to raise the latino turnout to 60% or beyond, would be to put one of theirs on the ballot. And to suggest that there doesn't even exist one single qualified person among the US' 53 million latinos is quite pathetic, to say the least. What an offensive remark really to 17% of the US population.

Uh, I never said that. We were talking about Julian Castro.

"not even one single qualified person among the US's 53 million Latinos" sounds pathetic and insulting to the untrained ear. But left out was the part about how it's "qualified to be president of the United States right now". Less insulting. Especially considering, most of those 53 million are under 14 years old.

Both Castros who are… 40? Almost 40? lack the resume. Hillary won't trade trying to boost the Latino vote for opening herself up to charges of letting politics drive her to put someone unqualified a heartbeat away. More likely to be a boring, safe pick. I don't think that changes too much if she has the kind of leads she now has though the odds of a female running mate go up somewhat.