2020 Pence vs Kasich Republican primary

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

VP & Fmr. Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

I don't think that it's all that sound to base Pence's results off of Trump's 2016 primary results, because although Pence is tied to Trump, they are very different brands of Republicanism.

Kasich succeeds in the more moderate and less religious Northeast and West Coast (along with a couple Midwestern states Trump won last year), while Pence (as expected) excels among more religious and more culturally conservative constituencies. CO, NM, AZ, NV, and PA are the closest states (so the Southwest in general is a hotly contested region), although several states in the Mountain West and Great Plains are relatively small victories for Pence (NE, MT, KS, and potentially WY and the Dakotas would be far from blowouts).

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

VP & Fmr. Gov. Mike Pence (R-IN)
Fmr. Gov. John Kasich (R-OH)

I don't think that it's all that sound to base Pence's results off of Trump's 2016 primary results, because although Pence is tied to Trump, they are very different brands of Republicanism.

Kasich succeeds in the more moderate and less religious Northeast and West Coast (along with a couple Midwestern states Trump won last year), while Pence (as expected) excels among more religious and more culturally conservative constituencies. CO, NM, AZ, NV, and PA are the closest states (so the Southwest in general is a hotly contested region), although several states in the Mountain West and Great Plains are relatively small victories for Pence (NE, MT, KS, and potentially WY and the Dakotas would be far from blowouts).

How on earth does Pence win Pennsylvania, Virginia, Maine, Alaska, and, to a lesser extent, North Carolina? Those were some of Kasich's best states. North Carolina has a huge amount of young people, and if Kasich were getting so much recognition and high poll numbers, they would turn out for him.

I was assuming that most of Cruz's core consistency supports Pence, because they have similar religious conservatism beliefs. Maine and Alaska were two states Cruz won, so I gave them to Pence. Pennsylvania I could see going either way, which is why I said in my explanation that it would be one of the closest states (maybe looking back I would've changed it to Kasich). NC and VA are quite socially conservative despite being swing and lean-D states respectively, so I used that logic to give them both to Pence, although I'm sure Kasich could put up a good fight there as well. I just see Pence doing better among the Appalachian coal-miner demographic as a whole, which makes up much of the GOP base in VA.