The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[cinyc]

Yep, Lowden is conceding. There it is.

That's a no-brainer.  Lowden is not even winning most of the cow counties, which she would need to win big to offset Clark and Washoe.  I'm surprised the AP hasn't called it yet.

"None of these candidates" is still "winning" the NV-D Gubernatorial primary, 30-25 over Goodman.  Too bad it is meaningless - Goodman will be the nominee by virtue of being the human receiving the most votes.

[cinyc]

It's not about Tennessee, but Politico will report live votes coming in for Hawaii, right?

The AP's page for Hawaii is already up, with test data.  I suspect Politico will follow the AP's lead.  That's where they get their data from, anyway.

[cinyc]

He's leading by less than I expected him to and his lead is shrinking, that press conference may be doing damage after all.

Foley is doing worst in Fairfield County, which is in the New York City TV market.  There has been nothing about that press conference on NYC TV - and I've seen zero campaign ads on NYC over-the-air TV.  That suggests the split and (relatively) declining numbers is a geographic thing.  Both are from Fairfield County, but McKinney has greater name recognition there than in the rest of the state as his legislative district is in Fairfield.

Foley is winning almost every town that's fully reported.

[cinyc]

AP calls CT-Gov-R for Foley.

[cinyc]

Bacchiochi, Penny   GOP        22,297   35%
Somers, Heather     GOP       21,970   34%
Walker, David         GOP        20,141   31%

Now, Somers is leading by 127 votes.

[cinyc]

Somers neck to neck with Bacchiochi, 34% to 34%. Leads by little over 500 votes with 94% of the vote in.

What's left is in the state's largest cities, Hartford and Bridgeport, where few Republicans live, two precincts in East Lyme, where Somers is winning big, and Norwalk on the shoreline of Fairfield County, where there are some Republicans.  Somers is doing pretty well in the Fairfield County shoreline towns, at a minimum, keeping it close with Bacchiochi.  I think she has it.

[cinyc]

CT Gov-R by town:


Foley (winner) in blue.  McKinney in red.  Tie in grey.

CT Lt. Gov-R by town:



Bacchiochi in blue.  Somers (winner) in red.  Walker in yellow.  Ties in grey.

Note that this is from last night's AP data after all towns reported.  There may have been a subsequent update.

[cinyc]

That's a surprisingly lopsided map for only a 56-44 split. Did McKinney absolutely clean up in his home region, and/or was the rest of the state mostly (outside Greenwich, it seems) fairly close despite being near uniformly going for Foley?

Most of Foley's wins weren't fairly close.  They were at or above his statewide average - which was 11 points and isn't that really close in the grand scheme of things.  If I've done the spreadsheet math right, Connecticut has 169 towns.  Foley won 149.  McKinney won 19.  One was an exact tie.  Of Foley's 149 towns, he won 19 very slightly (50-55%), 56 at around his statewide average (55-60%), 48 in the low 60s (60-65%) and 26 with greater than 65% of the vote.  Almost half of McKinney's town wins were very slight (9), 5 were in the 55-60% range, 2 in the 60-65% range, and 3 were 65%+.

McKinney cleaned up in towns in and around his State Senate district, especially the town of Fairfield.  He actually won Fairfield County.  But he simply didn't do well in most of the rest of the state.

[cinyc]

What time do the Alaska polls close?  Midnight EDT, 11 PM CDT?

Most of the state closes at 12 AM EST, but the media generally considers it closed at 1 AM due to Aleutian Islands.

There is literally one precinct in the Aleutians that theoretically closes at 1AM Eastern.  Everything else closes at midnight Eastern.

[cinyc]

When will the NY results start coming in?

9

When will the NY results start coming in?

9:00 EST.

Thanks! I am really interested in the NY primary as well as Rhode Island (which has already started to report).

New York is not very fast at counting votes.  It's not like Florida.  I wouldn't expect anything meaningful until after 10PM.

[cinyc]

I would be dumbfounded if Republicans didn't use this Teachout/Wu ad against Hochul.

Hochul isn't running separately in the general election.  New York votes for a combined Gov/Lt. Gov ticket.

[cinyc]

I would be dumbfounded if Republicans didn't use this Teachout/Wu ad against Hochul.

Hochul isn't running separately in the general election.  New York votes for a combined Gov/Lt. Gov ticket.

Corrupt Cuomo + Flip Floppin Hochul. Quite a ticket.

Astorino doesn't have the money to run ads.  The RGA isn't helping him, either.  Without an upset by Teachout, Cuomo is definitely getting reelected.  Astorino will be lucky to receive as much of the vote as Teachout + Credico did so far.

[cinyc]

Beat me to it. It'll be interesting to look at the town-level results, assuming they're available, once my internet has been fixed. This could also explain Cuomo's performance in Jefferson and Lewis counties. Not as large a number of corrections officers in either, but enough to matter when they and all of their friends and family are among the several hundred people who turn out countywide.

Franklin County has unofficial precinct-level results on their county website.  What's out is largely in Harrietstown and Tupper Lake in the Adirondacks.  It could tighten up there.