Elections Without Thresholds

[Former President tack50]

Spain 1977

The first election since 1936, no one really knew what was going to happen and there were many small parties which were hurt by the electoral system

UCD: 125 (-40)
PSOE: 109 (-9)
PCE: 34 (+14)
AP: 30 (+14)
PSP: 16 (+10)
FDC-EDC: 4 (+4)
FDI: 2 (+2)
ASDCI: 2 (+2)
AET: 1 (+1)
AN18: 1 (+1)
RSE: 1 (+1)
Centrist independents: 0 (-2)

PDPC: 10 (-1)
PNV: 6 (-2)
Unió: 3 (+1)
EC: 2 (+1)
EE: 1 (0)


A sh**t show, democracy wouldn't have lasted. IRL the electoral system did its job perfectly, prop up UCD in detriment of the socialists, the communist and all other small left wing groups.

7 national left wing parties would represented! (PSOE, PCE, PSP, FDI, ASDCI, AET and RSE). Falange and the Francoists get represenation in Congress as AN18 (though even then only barely).

A UCD+AP+PDPC+PNV+FDC-PDC+Unió deal would probably be the easiest government to form. But back then PNV was opposed to the constitution and I can't see them working with AP so I'm not sure if that would work. Maybe we get a UCD-PSOE grand coalition? But PSOE back then was more radical (González did a lot to moderate the party in the 70s).

Then again I could see a concentration UCD+PSOE+AP+PCE+PDPC mega grand coalition to write the constitution like IRL.

[Former President tack50]

Since the next Catalan regional election is coming up soon, I decided to check the ones before it:

2015 Catalan election

JxSí 55 (-7)
CUP 11 (+1)

Cs 25 (-)
PSC 17 (+1)
PP 11 (-)

CQSP 12 (+1)
Unió 3 (+3)
PACMA 1 (+1)

Not much change other than JxSí losing a lot and the minor parties, particularly Unió getting seats. Secessionists do lose their majority, falling 2 seats short. My guess is that they refuse to take any unilateral actions and there's a JxSí-CUP minority coalition with Unió's or CQSP's support.

2012

CiU 44 (-6)
ERC 19 (-2)
CUP 5 (+2)
SI 1 (+1)

PSC 20 (-)
PP 18 (-1)
Cs 11 (+2)
PxC 2 (+2)

ICV-EUiA: 14 (+1)
EB: 1 (+1)

Again, the ruling coalition (CiU-ERC) loses its majority. Considering that back then PSC was more open to a referendum, I guess that either there is a CiU-ERC-PSC coalition that pledges to get a referendum but not do any unilateral moves whatsoever. CUP probably wouldn't support CiU, especially not then.

2010

CiU 57 (-5)
PSC 27 (-1)
PP 18 (-)
ICV-EUiA 10 (-)
ERC 10 (-)
Cs 5 (+2)
SI 4 (-)
PxC 3 (+3)
RI 1 (+1)

2 explicitly secessionsist parties enter parliament but independence isn't the biggest issue yet, more traditional politics dominate. There's almost certainly a CiU-PP right wing coalition, just like in our timeline, except PP will need to actively support CiU, not just abstain.

2006

CiU 45 (-3)
PSC 38 (+1)
ERC 20 (-1)
PP 15 (+1)
ICV-EUiA 13 (+1)
Cs 4 (+1)

Not many changes, not even new parties entering! The government would be the exact same as in real life (PSC-ERC-ICV).