Elections Without Thresholds

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BUMP

Australia 2013

ALP (34.7%): 54 (-1)
Lib (33.3%): 51 (-7)
LNP (9.3%): 14 (-8)
Green (9.0%): 13 (+12)
PUP (5.7%): 8 (+7)
Nat (4.5%): 6 (-3)
FF (1.5%): 2 (+2)
KAP (1.1%): 1 (nc)
CD (0.7%): 1 (+1)
Count Lib (0.3%): 0 (-1)

In total the Coalition would have scored 71 seats, 5 short of a majority; while an ALP-Green coalition would have 67.

So probably a minority government, with PUP in the balance of power.

The 40 senate seats up are interesting, in that under the Australian system the major parties are inflated by straight PR, the Greens and PUP are stagnant, while Xenephon, AMEP, ASP and FF find themselves in the cold.
Coalition (43.0%): 19 (+2)
ALP (34.4%): 15 (+3)
Green (9.9%): 4 (nc)
PUP (5.6%): 2 (nc)

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I imagine that large three-party liberal coalition could join the government, as could LAOS (who were propping up the last coalition).

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Spanish 2011

People's Party (45.8%): 164 (-22)

Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (29.5%): 105 (-5)

United Left (7.1%): 25 (+14)

Union, Progress and Democracy (4.8%): 17 (+12)

Convergence and Union (4.3%): 15 (-1)

Aimur (1.4%): 5 (-2)

Basque Nationalist (1.4%): 4 (-1)

Republican Left of Catalonia (1.1%): 3 (nc)

Equo (0.9%): 3 (+3)

Galican (0.8%): 2 (nc)

Canaries (0.6%): 2 (nc)

Compromise Coalition-EQUO (0.5%): 1 (nc)

Animal Rights (0.4%): 1 (+1)

Asturian Forum (0.4%): 1 (nc)

Blank (0.4%): 1 (+1) *

Andulacian (0.3%): 1 (+1)

Minority Rajoy admin, probably propped up on regionals (12 seats would be needed for a majority - lending the possibility to a Upyd-PP coalition?) In general, because most of Spain's small parties are regional, they don't gain all too much from straight PR apart from the Commies and UpyD.

* lol

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The LDP-Komeito-YP coalition (the most logical on paper) would be six seats short. Any attempt to form a left-leaning alliance (and it would have to be broad enough to accommodate both JCP/SDP and YP, with Tomorrow and under the DJP) would fall far short.

I would imagine that - unless the DJP wanted an anti-LDP coalition with the JRP - the JRP would prop up an Abe government.

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Russia 1995 looks pretty different without constituencies and that threshold that managed to exclude 45% of the PR vote:

Communist (23.63%): 110
Lib Dem (11.85%): 55
Our Home (10.73%): 50
Yabloko (7.30%): 34
Women (4.89%): 22
Comm For Soviet (4.80%): 22
Cong4Communit. (4.57%): 21
Workers SelfGov (4.22%): 19
Democrat Choice (4.09%): 19
Agrarian (4.01%): 18
Derzhava (2.72%): 12
Forward Russia (2.06%): 9
Pwr2Ppl (1.71%): 8
Pamfilova (1.70%): 7
TradeUnions (1.64%): 7
Environment (1.39%): 6
Ivan Rybkin (1.18%): 5
Stanislaw Bloc (1.05%): 4
Fatherland (0.76%): 3
Common cause (0.72%): 3
Beer (0.66%): 3
Muslim (0.60%): 2
Transform (0.52%): 2
nat Republic (0.51%): 2
30 words (0.50%): 2
Unity and Acc (0.38%): 1
Lawyers (0.37%): 1
For Mothland (0.30%): 1
Christian Dem (0.30%): 1
38 word (0.22%): 1
Peoples (0.20%): None

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Poland, 2015 (Sejm)

Law and Justice (37.73%): 175 (-60)
Civic Platform (24.19%): 112 (-26)
Kukiz (8.85%): 41 (-1)
Modern (7.63%): 35 (+7)
United Left (7.58%): 35 (+35)
Polish People's (5.15%): 23 (+7)
Korwin (4.78%): 22 (+22)
Together (3.64%): 16 (+16)
Committee for ... (0.28%): 1 (+1)
German Minority (0.18%): None (-1)

231 is needed for a majority. Perhaps PiS + Kukiz + Korwin + Polish People's, for a big populist rightist affair? Or even PiS + United Left + Kukiz, although that would immediately asplode the UL.

(I don't know what Committee... is - Google translates it as the Polish Milipede Party, which certainly doesn't sound right.

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Independence (29.00%): 20 (-1)
Left-Green (15.91%): 10
Pirate (14.48%): 9 (-1)
Progressive (11.49%): 7 (-1)
Viðreisn (10.48%): 7
Bright Future (7.16%): 4
Social Democrat (5.74%): 3
People's (3.54%): 2 (+2)
Dawn (1.73%): 1 (+1)

anybody see a valid coalition out of that?

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Norway 2013


•Labour (31.06%): 54

•Hoyre (27.00%): 47

•Progress (16.46%): 28

•Christian dems (5.63%): 9

•Centre (5.52%): 9

•Venstre (5.27%): 9

•Socialist Left (4.12%): 7

•Green (2.81%): 4

•Red (1.09%): 1

•Christian (0.63%): 1

•Pensioners (0.42%): None

Kind of a pointless exercise, seeing as it mostly cleaves off one seat off every party down to centre and distributes them to Greens, Red and the Christians. The Hoyre-Progress majority would be down two to make 75 (85 needed for majority). Could be more interesting in previous election, when Venstre fell below the threshold and artificially boosted the left majority (although a very narrow victoey would mean Labour-Centre-Socialist would be reliant on the anticapitalist reds.

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Here's a classic wtf threshold election: Turkey 2002, the one which kicked every single party out and led to the AKP hegemony we love (?) today.


AKP (34.63%): 193


•CHP (19.58%): 109


•DYP (TruePath) (9.64%): 53


•MHP (8.44%): 47


•Young Party (7.32%): 40


•DEHAP (Kurds) (6.28%): 35


•Motherland (5.18%): 29


•Felicity (2.52%): 14


•Dem Left (1.23%): 6


•New Turkey (1.17%): 6


•Great Union (1.03%): 5


•Homeland (0.94%): 5


•Workers (0.51%): 2


•Ind. Turkey (0.48%): 2


•Freedom & Solid (0.34%): 1


•Lib Dem (0.29%): 1


•Nation (0.22%): 1


•Communist (0.19%): 1

Obviously another messy coalition would ensure, but what would it be exactly? AKP + Tansu Cillar's True Path Party would get 246; so 30 more seats would be needed. The MHP could have been coaxed in, but they were part of the hated previous coalition (and were the instigators of its downfall) and would piss off the conservative Kurdish part of Erdogan's initial coalition. DEHAP would also be ruled out, given that it was part of a long line of Kurdish parties the Turkish state wants dead. The Young Party seems to have been a shameless oligarch vehicle for a media proprietor who spent most of the AKP years at odds with Erdogan before being chased out. Motherland (centre-right) could be brought in (many of its members joined AKP when it started), which would be one seat away from a majority. I presume Felicity wouldn't be invited for PR reasons (when the AKP split from the reformist faction of Virtue, the ancestral leader of Islamism in Turkey Erbakan and his conservative faction formed Felicity for the True Islamists. The remains of the former leading party (the Democratic Left) and the group intended to be its successor before its most relevant members defected to the resurging CHP (New Turkey) would probably be no hope. Great Union is a far-right outfit with links to the Grey Wolves so, ah, no. Homeland (led by a former cabinet minister) could probably make a decent tiny coalition partner to push the narrow coalition above the line. Workers Party are bizarre Maoist-Kemalist fusionists. The rest don't really matter.

 So there we go:

AKP-DYP-Motherland-Homeland

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NZ 2017 (majority 61)

Nationals (46.38%): 57 (-1)
Labour (36.06%): 44 (-1)
NZ First (7.57%): 9
Greens (5.90%): 7
TOP (2.23%): 2 (+2)
Maori (1.09%): 1 (+1)
ACT (0.51%): None (-1)
Legalise Weed (0.27%): None

English would still have to work with NZ First.

Maori party saved, but ACT actually lose their one seat.

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Germany 2017

CDU (26.98%): 193
SDP (20.68%): 148
AfD (12.74%): 91
FDP (10.83%): 77
Linke (9.31%): 66
Greens (9.01%): 64
CSU (6.22%): 44
Free Voters (1.00%): 7
The Party (0.98%): 7
Animal Prot (0.81%): 5
NDP (0.38%): 2
Pirates (0.38%): 2
ODP (0.31%): 2
Basic Income (0.21%): 1
V-Party (0.14%): None

That's 378 for a Jamaica Coalition and 385 for a Grand, both majorities. The large Bundestag brings in quite a few randoms.

This election wasn't too bad in terms of disproportionately, especially compared to last election.

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The 2009 election in Japan:

Democratic (42.41%): 206
LDP (26.73%): 129
New Komeito (11.45%): 55
Communist (7.03%): 34
Soc Dems (4.27%): 20
Yours (4.27%): 20
People's New (1.73%): 8
New Party Nippon (0.75%): 3
Happiness Realisation (0.65%): 3
New Party Daichi (0.62%): 2
Renaissance (0.08%): None
Essential (0.01%): None

for balance the DPJ got 308 seats in the actual election (they are the only party to lose votes in the PR world). Their allied parties all score increases with fulll PR though: the SDP go from 7 to 20, the PNP (a small post-Post privatisation breakaway of the LDP) go from 3 to 8, and the two "New" parties (also LDP rebels, Nippon being formed from the Governor of Nagano who had alienated conservatives from his anti-pork agenda; Daichi being led by a crook from Hokkaido) both increase from their previous one man band status.

Therefore the governing coalition get 239 (241 are needed for a majority, and far off from the 320 needed to overturn the results from a hostile upper house). They would also be burned by the fact that the SDP and New Party Nippon would withdraw from the government. I guess Hatoyama would have to find a new party: the Communists (who increase from 9) could work with them potentially, as could Yoshimi Watanabe's YP (who increase from 5), although presumably not both simultanously.

also lmao that Happiness Realisation get in

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Japan 2017

LDP (33.33%): 156
CDP (19.91%): 93
Hope (17.38%): 81
New Komeito (12.53%): 59
Communist (7.91%): 37
JIP (6.08%): 28
Soc Dem (1.69%): 7
Happiness Realisation (0.52%): 2
Party for Japanese Kokoro (0.41%): 1
No Party to Support (0.22%): 1

LDP-KP : 215

CDP-Communist-SDP: 137

Hope-JIP: 109

233 seats are needed for a majority. It would probably entail an alliance between  Koike's bloc and the LDP, which itself would probably involve ditching Abe.

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And of course the actual Bundestag was even bigger that election...

I honestly think Germany would be improved with no threshold, even though it would probably lead to horrid little abominations like NPD and some kind of Denk.

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pretty sure that its not possible to pick a less interesting series of places to do that sort of thing for

Malta

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any thouught on the coalitions that would result from these elections? You're veering on spam here.

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It's OK, just please keep them confined to a single post

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It's OK, just please keep them confined to a single post

I don't quite understand what you mean?

rather than making a new post for every single election, I think it would be better to simply combine more of them in groups. (i.e. have a single post for all the WA elections etc) It makes things nicer on the eyes.

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a Lab-Green coalition there would only be 42 seats, 5 short of a majority, You'd have to brig Katter and the indies. (Be definitely more viable than an LNP led coalition though)