Thai parliament dissolved by Yingluck

[opebo]

Parliament ('the House') has been dissolved - a step in the right direction, I think:

http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/383957/pm-dissolves-house-but-anti-thaksin-protest-continues

Also the protests are staying strong. I'm hoping for an end to the red regime soon

[opebo]

Talking to my Thai friends - apparently this is a strategy by the government to try to defuse the situation and avoid giving the army its much coveted excuse for a coup.  It remains to be seen whether the strategy is successful - it is obviously not indicative of a very strong position.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

One hopes on principle that it is, although one also hopes on principle that the election to come doesn't involve statistically significant vote-rigging.

[opebo]

This is the traditional Red/Yellow sides in Thailand - the red is red, all the other colors (mainly blue for Democrat) would side with Yellow.  



In the event of a coup, Bangkok, the South, the 'eastern seaboard' and a few Central areas would probably be very happy.  Isaan (the Northeast) and the North would be deeply unhappy and a civil war is a possibility.

[opebo]

One hopes on principle that it is, although one also hopes on principle that the election to come doesn't involve statistically significant vote-rigging.

Most people 'in the know' suggest that in this process the Democrats will boycott any ensuing election, delegitimizing it, and then the anti-corruption court (largely royal appointees) will dissolve the red party for vote-buying/corruption, leading to a royally appointed 'yellow' or Democrat government.

Its a cycle.. the alternative to a direct coup d'etat.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

One hopes on principle that it is, although one also hopes on principle that the election to come doesn't involve statistically significant vote-rigging.

Most people 'in the know' suggest that in this process the Democrats will boycott any ensuing election, delegitimizing it, and then the anti-corruption court (largely royal appointees) will dissolve the red party for vote-buying/corruption, leading to a royally appointed 'yellow' or Democrat government.

Its a cycle.. the alternative to

That's...depressing, although it does make sense, and is definitely preferable to

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[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully she wins an even larger majority.

[opebo]

Hopefully she wins an even larger majority.

If there were an election, she would win... but, it is somewhat doubtful at this point whether that will be the denouement.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully she wins an even larger majority.

If there were an election, she would win... but, it is somewhat doubtful at this point whether that will be the denouement.

The corrupt elite won't forever be able to stifle the people's will.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Democrats are baby bitches. Taking home their toys and not playing because they know they can't win an election.

Boycotting an election won't make the election illegitimate, it will just prove that THEY are illegitimate in claiming to represent the people.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hopefully she wins an even larger majority.

If there were an election, she would win... but, it is somewhat doubtful at this point whether that will be the denouement.

The corrupt elite won't forever be able to stifle the people's will.

The problem is that even when the corrupt elite cease to be able to stifle the people's will, it never really ceases being possible that they will re-stifle it given the right (i.e., wrong) circumstances, unless they stop being the elite. Yingluck obviously hasn't succeeded at making that happen. I doubt anybody currently in the Thai political landscape could.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully she wins an even larger majority.

If there were an election, she would win... but, it is somewhat doubtful at this point whether that will be the denouement.

The corrupt elite won't forever be able to stifle the people's will.

The problem is that even when the corrupt elite cease to be able to stifle the people's will, it never really ceases being possible that they will re-stifle it given the right (i.e., wrong) circumstances, unless they stop being the elite. Yingluck obviously hasn't succeeded at making that happen. I doubt anybody currently in the Thai political landscape could.

Certainly. Don't take me wrong, I'm far from being a Thaksin fan. In a decent and fully democratic political system, I would cheer at his downfall. But it's hard not to be utterly disgusted at the attitude of the anti-Thanksin camp since 2006 (unless you're Opebo, that is).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Hopefully she wins an even larger majority.

If there were an election, she would win... but, it is somewhat doubtful at this point whether that will be the denouement.

The corrupt elite won't forever be able to stifle the people's will.

The problem is that even when the corrupt elite cease to be able to stifle the people's will, it never really ceases being possible that they will re-stifle it given the right (i.e., wrong) circumstances, unless they stop being the elite. Yingluck obviously hasn't succeeded at making that happen. I doubt anybody currently in the Thai political landscape could.

Certainly. Don't take me wrong, I'm far from being a Thaksin fan. In a decent and fully democratic political system, I would cheer at his downfall. But it's hard not to be utterly disgusted at the attitude of the anti-Thanksin camp since 2006 (unless you're Opebo, that is).

I'm acquainted with a pretty decent and conscientious Yellow-Shirt, actually, but she's also embarrassed to the point of nausea by her own side at this point.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully she wins an even larger majority.

If there were an election, she would win... but, it is somewhat doubtful at this point whether that will be the denouement.

The corrupt elite won't forever be able to stifle the people's will.

The problem is that even when the corrupt elite cease to be able to stifle the people's will, it never really ceases being possible that they will re-stifle it given the right (i.e., wrong) circumstances, unless they stop being the elite. Yingluck obviously hasn't succeeded at making that happen. I doubt anybody currently in the Thai political landscape could.

Certainly. Don't take me wrong, I'm far from being a Thaksin fan. In a decent and fully democratic political system, I would cheer at his downfall. But it's hard not to be utterly disgusted at the attitude of the anti-Thanksin camp since 2006 (unless you're Opebo, that is).

I'm acquainted with a pretty decent and conscientious Yellow-Shirt, actually, but she's also embarrassed to the point of nausea by her own side at this point.

That seems fair. There are certainly very good reasons to oppose Thaksin and his clique.

[freefair]

.. The Democrats seem to be the only party with a coherent ideology, and it's one I actively approve of.

[opebo]

.. The Democrats seem to be the only party with a coherent ideology, and it's one I actively approve of.

Yeah that's the funny part - a more humane party could hardly be imagined, and yet they only govern after coups and various other 'non-democratic' machinations.  The Red/Thaksin cabal by contrast are particularly brutish populists: very democratic, but much more corrupt than the elite the claim moral superiority over, as well as far worse in their abuse of human rights.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

a more humane party could hardly be imagined,

(I say this as somebody who's only slightly Red-leaning in my analysis of Thai politics and generally pretty unhappy about what I see there but considering your claimed views on politics in almost every other country this particular hypocrisy really needs to pointed out whenever possible:) One that wasn't 'classically liberal', perhaps, even if it somehow resembled the existing Democrat Party otherwise? You're a real friend of the proletariat, opebo, a real good friend.

[opebo]

a more humane party could hardly be imagined,

(I say this as somebody who's only slightly Red-leaning in my analysis of Thai politics and generally pretty unhappy about what I see there but considering your claimed views on politics in almost every other country this particular hypocrisy really needs to pointed out whenever possible:) One that wasn't 'classically liberal', perhaps, even if it somehow resembled the existing Democrat Party otherwise? You're a real friend of the proletariat, opebo, a real good friend.

My point is that from Western sensibilities a classically liberal party should be familiar and appealing - certainly more so than the brutal law-n-order client-populism of the Reds.  In practice - particularly how they deal with a variety of minority groups (Muslim ones in particular), as well as marginalized in society like criminals, the Democrats are very atypically humane in the context of Thai society.  In fact they are also not averse to a social safety net - though admittedly a rather limited one, and probably they do acquiesce to it only as an attempt to be competitive to the Reds. 

I'm all for a bit of socialism, but that is not what the Reds represent here.  The idea solution in Thailand, to my mind, is to eliminate 'democracy', and have a near-absolute monarchy with the Democrats as appointed caretaker government forever.