New poll hype thread (user search)
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Author Topic: New poll hype thread  (Read 93701 times)
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 30,299
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Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« on: August 30, 2016, 11:02:36 AM »
I'd be shocked if Monmouth found results as good for Trump as Emerson.

Clinton +8
McGinty +3

That's my guess.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2016, 11:30:41 AM »
Both campaigns seem to understand just how "competitive" Wisconsin is, so I'm not sure we need that many WI polls right now. What I really want is a SD poll! Wink
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2016, 11:00:26 AM »
PA: Clinton +6, McGinty +4
NC: Clinton +1, Burr +3

Are they polling the gubernatorial race in NC? If so, Cooper +4.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2016, 05:07:55 PM »

This seems about right, give or take 2 points for either race.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #4 on: September 13, 2016, 08:54:51 PM »
Considering how things have gone, I'm not too optimistic about this poll. I'll guess that they find Trump up by 2.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #5 on: September 14, 2016, 12:09:49 PM »
Never mind, they released it already.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2016, 04:38:49 PM »
I'll guess Clinton +1 in FL, +9 in the iCitizen WI poll, and +7 in the Marquette poll. I'm not sure if the other pollsters are doing the Senate races as well, but I'll guess Marquette finds Feingold up 8.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2016, 01:20:13 PM »
I don't get accolades for getting Florida right? Sad

Anyway, this could just mean that the numbers for Hillary this week are a bit better. I wouldn't assume that they're back to where they were in August.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2016, 01:31:20 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 19, 2016, 01:25:52 PM
Quote from: xīngkěruì on September 19, 2016, 01:20:13 PM
I don't get accolades for getting Florida right? Sad

Anyway, this could just mean that the numbers for Hillary this week are a bit better. I wouldn't assume that they're back to where they were in August.

Yeah, it would be very surprising if they were back to that level.  But if this is true (and it's also an idea supported by the Gallup favorability numbers posted a couple of days ago), it would indicate that Trump's recent surge has peaked, and the numbers are moving back toward Clinton.  How fast and how much?  Who knows.

IMO the key lesson here is that polls are going to continue to fluctuate until Election Day.  No matter which side you favor: don't panic, and don't get overconfident.  Steer the <ahem> middle course. Wink

That's quite true, and also why I'm surprised that Sabato changed his map so much yesterday. I guess he believes that the race has fundamentally changed, but it seemed a bit excessive, especially since he already changed a few ratings just days beforehand.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2016, 01:31:44 PM »
Tie in NC, Cooper +4
Clinton +3 in NV (lol)
Clinton +1 in IA
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2016, 11:44:14 PM »
Quote from: Arch on September 20, 2016, 11:05:42 PM
Marquette should be releasing their results tomorrow, correct?

Yep, at 12:15 pm (Central Time, I presume) tomorrow.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #11 on: September 20, 2016, 11:47:21 PM »
Also, PPP might be hinting that Cooper is beating McCrory by at least 4 https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/778405124737675264
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #12 on: September 21, 2016, 01:13:47 PM »
National: Clinton +4
NV: Clinton +1 (lol)
NC: Tie
OH: Trump +3
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2016, 01:11:11 PM »
CO: C+6, B+12
GA: T+4, I+15
IA: T+2, G+11
VA: C+5
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2016, 12:38:43 PM »
CO - Clinton +6
VA - Clinton +8
MO - Trump +7

CO - Bennet +14
MO - Blunt +6
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #15 on: September 28, 2016, 06:53:55 PM »
CO: Clinton+5, Bennet+12
FL: Clinton+2, Flawless Beautiful Marco Purple heart Purple heart Purple heart+4
NC: Tie, Burr+1, Cooper+6
PA: Clinton+6, McGinty+3
VA: Clinton+9
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2016, 12:15:41 AM »
I'm sure TNV will be thrilled about that.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2016, 10:56:01 AM »
I'll guess it's tied in the Nevada poll.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2016, 03:05:53 PM »
Yeah, Clinton +4 sounds about right for the Fox poll.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2016, 11:18:20 PM »
I'll guess Clinton +5.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #20 on: October 03, 2016, 10:36:39 AM »
Clinton +8/Bennet +13
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #21 on: October 03, 2016, 11:51:42 AM »
FL: C+4, FBM<3+2
NC: C+2, B+2, C+5
OH: C+1, P+8
PA: C+7, M+3
TN: T+12 (lol)
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2016, 12:06:51 AM »
PPP is doing a Twitter poll for their next state: It'll be MI, NH, OH, or WI.
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2016, 10:30:08 AM »
Clinton +7
McGinty +4
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Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,299
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2016, 05:30:39 PM »
PPP doesn't tend to show the most favorable numbers for Hillary. I'll guess it's Trump +2 for Ohio.
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