Predict the Iowa Caucus Results

[The Free North]

1 day to go folks, give it your best shot. Lets see who can beat the polls and beat their fellow atleasians at nailing the caucus results.

I'll throw them all in excel and we can calculate a net margin of error for everyone after tomorrow night. Perhaps we'll keep a running tally as the primary process continues.




Republicans

Donald Trump:
Ted Cruz:
Marco Rubio:
Ben Carson:
Rand Paul:
Jeb Bush:
John Kasich:
Chris Christie:
Carly Fiorina:
Mike Huckabee:
Rick Santorum:
Jim Gilmore:

Democrats

Hillary Clinton:
Bernie Sanders:
Martin O'Malley:

[The Free North]

Republicans

Donald Trump: 29.5%
Ted Cruz: 22%
Marco Rubio:16%
Ben Carson: 9%
Rand Paul: 8%
Jeb Bush: 3%
John Kasich:3%
Mike Huckabee:3%
Chris Christie:2%
Carly Fiorina: 2%
Rick Santorum: 2%
Jim Gilmore: 0.5%

Democrats

Bernie Sanders: 50%
Hillary Clinton: 49%
Martin O'Malley: 1%

[The Free North]

Spreadsheet has been updated!

Keep 'em coming.

[The Free North]

Looking good so far, picks have been updated, I may have some stats out later tonight (depending on if I have enough time or not).

[The Free North]

^^ Just so you know I edited mine just a few hours ago

I'll double check, thanks.

[The Free North]

We have over 50 sets of picks in and here are the averages thus far (through 11:28 PM on 1/31).

Keep in mind the RCP average has Trump +6.2 and Clinton +3.3


Atlas likes Trump +3.4 and Clinton +2.8

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[The Free North]

Just a clarification point....

I believe the democrats only release the delegate totals so the percentages you put down for the Dem side should represent that. Candidates must garner 15% of the support at their caucus in order to be eligible to earn delegates, so keep that in mind.


Since the exit polls are coming out at 8 New York time, i'll keep this open until an hour before then in case people want to edit and/or add picks.  

[The Free North]

Are they exit polls or entrance polls? If they're entrance polls, O'Malley's percentage is going to be seriously overestimated.

Entrance polls come out at 8 before the caucus starts.

[The Free North]

Can I change my Democratic numbers to : Bernie: 51  Hillary: 48, Martin: 1

Updated.

All other edits have been done as well.

We now have close to 75 picks!

[The Free North]

Can I change my Democratic numbers to : Bernie: 51  Hillary: 48, Martin: 1

Updated.

All other edits have been done as well.

We now have close to 75 picks!

Pics or didn't happen!

Maybe ill just share this as a google doc later...

[The Free North]

Can I change my Democratic numbers to : Bernie: 51  Hillary: 48, Martin: 1

Updated.

All other edits have been done as well.

We now have close to 75 picks!

Pics or didn't happen!

Maybe ill just share this as a google doc later...

It's probably too much work, but it might be interesting if you organized the predictions, but something other than in the order made, say by Trump percentages, from high to low. Not only is Trump the hot button item around here, but as Trump goes down, either Cruz or Rubio or both will tend to be going up, so that might be the best filter.

We'll the ultimate goal is to see who's prediction is closest to the actual results, but the point regarding Trump's strength is well taken.

It would be interesting to scatter Trump's predicted % with overall % error to see if there is any sort of relationship or bias between the two.

[The Free North]

All edits and predictions updated as of 6:04 PM.



Since the exit poll comes out at 8, we'll stop taking predictions then.

I've got over 90 total submissions so far! Gonna be awesome to crunch these numbers later and see who got closest (and furthest) from the actual results.

[The Free North]

In an aggregate of the 91 predictions thus far, Trump leads by 3.3 and Clinton leads by 3.6

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