Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Aurelius]

The Sun? I'll believe it when I see it.

[Aurelius]

Anyway I somewhat doubt that this isn’t just another ruse, but even if it is not I can only see positive things from it decades from now in bettering international politics by making everyone I dislike lose compared to the carnage. And my opponents losing means more opportunity for the common good. 

Ideology is poison.

[Aurelius]

For months I confidently maintained that Putin was bluffing to extract concessions and Russia would not invade. I am starting to fear that I have been wrong. Fingers crossed that this is not the case.

[Aurelius]

Welp. I was wrong. Time to eat crow.

[Aurelius]

If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

[Aurelius]

How has BigSerg managed to vote in the poll 4 times?

Same reason "Opinion of Adolf Hitler" polls always get 20 to 30 percent FF. People voting for the ridiculous option purely because the question has such an obvious answer.

[Aurelius]

Doubt it. I give that a ~5% chance.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1496636644455297026

This is why I incorrectly predicted that Putin was bluffing to extract concessions. He is showing a new and worrisome level of aggression that goes far beyond even his old playbook.

[Aurelius]

Anyone who spent the last month lecturing us that the invasion was CIA propaganda and a nothing burger needs to apologize.

At first I genuinely thought this was just Putin trying to gain negotiation leverage. I still think his decision is irrational from all perspectives, but I was flawed in assuming Putin makes all his decisions on rationality, no leader does and my preconceived notions of him as a cunning evil villain clouded my judgement. I apologize for ever saying I don’t think Russia will invade, I can’t believe this is happening.

You don't have to apologize. This is a significant deviation from Putin's old playbook, and many of us were unfortunately making predictions based on that old playbook. The idea we ought to apologize for incorrectly predicting the course of geopolitical events is ridiculous.

Btw, most of us who were wrong here never said it was CIA propaganda or such bs. I was very consistent in (wrongly) thinking that it was bad intel and Putin was bluffing to extract concessions.

Quite simply, this is a level of wanton aggression we have never seen from Putin before. He didn't even bother to manufacture a casus belli before invading! Just called the Ukrainians Nazis and rolled right in.

Which is also why this is so scary. It demonstrates that Russia is no longer content to simply nibble around the edges of its sphere of influence. It is all in on conquest.

[Aurelius]

I really hope Аndriу is doing okay. I'm very concerned about his safety.

Same. If there's anything we can do to help him, either by sending money or whatever else, I'm happy to contribute. Karpatsky might know about how to get goods or money into Ukraine.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1496472039108009987

Jesus Christ.

A week ago I would have dismissed this as the usual defense-agency hyperventilation a la Havana Syndrome, but after they were right and I was wrong I have no choice but to believe this.

This is a whole new level of insanity. I very much dislike making Hitler comparisons but this is... bad.

If this actually comes into play, with unimpeachable verified evidence, boots on the ground may be in order.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1496702809097527297
Heartbreaking: The worst person you know just made a great point

Moldova was part of the USSR. Unsurprisingly, Putin sees it as rightfully his. He's already done the same frozen conflict BS there that he did in Georgia and Ukraine.

[Aurelius]

I would sincerely like to know how the US intel got this so right and got Afghanistan so wrong... Is it different people? Did Biden clean house or something?

^^^
Big part of why I was so skeptical of the CIA reports here. Something big maybe changed internally?

[Aurelius]

Shot from Kyiv as cars head out:

Why the Hell is there no contraflow?

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/MEMRIReports/status/1496797619825352706

As usual, John Kerry needs to STFU.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/RichardEngel/status/1496860722059517958

Chernobyl tweets earlier appear to be misinfo, thank God.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/lymanstoneky/status/1496861412781613057

[Aurelius]

Europe is too wedded to Russian energy. The US should go full court press on ramping up energy production and selling to Europe. So should Canada.

[Aurelius]

https://twitter.com/SimTack/status/1496861104869416966

[Aurelius]

ABC is now reporting the Chernobyl thing too. Still find it hard to believe.

Same. My threshold for believing this is much higher than other Ukraine news. Putin is aggressive but not stupid.

[Aurelius]

Ukraine is calling on its allies to follow in its steps and sever relations with Russia. -Foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1496833857009729547

[Aurelius]

Reports that Kherson has officially fallen. Any confirmation?

This is what I'm seeing.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1496863457513447424

Kherson is the most pro-Russia part of Ukraine outside of DNR and LNR. An insurgency could be difficult to maintain there.

[Aurelius]

Tanks entered Sumy.

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1496867877617639429

Sumy provides a straightforward route of attack on Kyiv from the east.

Very concerning.

[Aurelius]

Take this with a big grain of salt given the source.

https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1496869190162337793

[Aurelius]

Speaking at a high school today (juniors who are interested in a medical career).  I’ve heard a surprising amount of chatter among the kiddos about this.  

We finished our tasks at work an hour early last night, and me and my completely apolitical coworkers spent the final hour in the break room watching TV news instead of the usual sports or South Park.