Critz vs. Burns for PA-12

[Tender Branson]

PPP says Obama is "massively unpopular" in the district, but the special election race is very close.

PA-12 is really trending away from the Democrats:

In 2000, it was 4% more DEM than PA.

In 2004, it was about as DEM as PA.

In 2008, it was 6% less DEM than PA.

So, I guess it is about 8% less DEM than PA as a whole now.

An given the latest PA polls of likely voters showing 46% approving of Obama, I guess the poll will show something like 37-39% approve and 56-58% disapprove in the district.

[Tender Branson]

An given the latest PA polls of likely voters showing 46% approving of Obama, I guess the poll will show something like 37-39% approve and 56-58% disapprove in the district.

Well, the actual numbers are

33% Approve
57% Disapprove

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/04/pa-12-poll-preview.html

Support and opposition are not as "hard" as they are in all of PA (46% approve, 50% disapprove), but if we allocate the undecided it´s something like 37-63 for PA-12 and 48-52 for PA as a whole.

That makes the district now 10-12% less DEM than PA, a trend seen since 2000 at least.

[Tender Branson]

Critzmentum in PA-12 !

New poll by Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) shows Critz now ahead of Burns by 6:

Critz (D): 44%
Burns (R): 38%

Obama:

40% Approve
51% Disapprove

The poll of 400 likely voters took place Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/westmoreland/s_680706.html

[Tender Branson]

Critzmentum in PA-12 !

New poll by Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) shows Critz now ahead of Burns by 6:

Critz (D): 44%
Burns (R): 38%

Obama:

40% Approve
51% Disapprove

The poll of 400 likely voters took place Monday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/news/westmoreland/s_680706.html

Susquehanna is in the running for the "Its Zogby" Award in 2010.

Harr-Harr ...