Early Voting thread.

[2016]

Total Early Votes: 555,328
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,595,717

Which State, ought to be CA!

This will be one of the few Posts in this Thread from me. I will stay mostly away from Early Voting because I don't want to content with some Posters I did in 2020 who were telling me that Biden had a shot in TX or FL.

[2016]

Total Early Votes: 237,512
Mail Ballots Requested: 8,307,046

Party           Count Percent
Democrat   60,146 57.9
Republican   26,792 25.8
None/Minor 16,961 16.3
TOTAL 103,899 100.0

North Carolina, the state with the most votes that has early statistics, is showing numbers roughly in line with 2020, if a little better for Democrats.

Obviously still early but I would call this a good sign for Budd if the electorate is very similar to that of 2020 (not that party registration proves that it is).

1) this would mean that possibility of a 2018 style absolute democrat turnout advantage blitz seen in the special elections is less likely

2) As skill and chance pointed out, it seems that the people who vote a month early are trending hard away from republicans

3) It’s hard to imagine Budd doing so much worse than Trump with independents that he loses in a neutral turnout scenario

The NC Republican Party is always a little bit lazy. They gave me, as a Numbers Cruncher, quite a few grey hairs with their acting in 2020 waiting until the last 2nd until EV finally picked up.

[2016]

Total Early Votes: 650,864 (+95k)
Mail Ballots Requested: 10,685,123 (+90k)

A gentle quick reminder of myself and I said this 2020 as well. Pay no attention to the Ballots requested especially now that COVID is sort of over.
Not every Mail Ballot that is requested will be returned by Mail. There are some Voters that request a Mail Ballot and decide to vote either Early in Person or on E-Day. Happens all the time.
Secondly don't expect the VBM Vote screw like 80-20 or 75-25 towards Democrats like we saw in 2020.
Finally would you be so kind enough to share which State it is.

[2016]

LOL, Tom Bonier is the CEO of TargetSmart, a Democrat partisan hack firm.

Turnout for example in Florida will be considerable lower compared to 2018 when they had once in a lifetime Midterm Turnout with 65 %.

[2016]

Any Official who is the CEO of TargetSmart should be taken with a huge grain of salt.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582176445404971008
That's a huge first day for a midterm. Who does high turnout help more?

Given that the demographics for these voters are less than 50% White and that Republicans usually don't vote early, I'd say it's a decent sign for Ds.

The notion that Republicans won't vote early is just massive fantasy by you and your uncle Tom Bonior from Target Smart. Republicans learned the hard way in 2020 by putting every egg in one basket. 2022 is way less restrictive compared to 2020 when COVID was spiking and there were no vaccines either.

[2016]

Advisory for all Democrats on the other side of the aisle.

After what I just found out regarding Tom Bonier I am going carpet bomp them on Social Media for his fraudulent TS Model.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1582764597278228480

Would I be correct in assuming that high turnout in a state like Georgia bodes well for Democrats?

High Turnout is good for both sides, not just Democrats. If you look at Virginia & New Jersey 2021 they had Record Turnout and Republicans won. I think the notion that High Turnout just automatically favors D's has IMO long being debunked particularly during the Trump aera.

Prior to Trump you might have been right since the DNC & Obama mostly had a better Ground Game during 2008-2012 but the RNC and the State Parties have caught up to that.

You are correct.

I would put it like this:

High turnout = close election, good for both sides

But Lower turnout = automatically bad for Dems, given history. (just look at the LV models that predicate on lower Dem/Dem groups turnout)

Unbelievable, we both agree on something. Wonders never cease

[2016]

So far, each days black share in GA was higher than 2018 and 2020. Don't have 2021 though, unfortunately

(this is each specific days total, not the cumulative running total)

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1583661196120829953

As pollsters have now come to realize over the past week, the 2018 demographics was clearly an incorrect model for gauging voter turnout in 2022.  Pollsters are beginning to shift to a modified 2020 turnout model that takes into account the real issues and motivations that will drive 'likely voters' to the polls.  It's extremely easy to draw parallels to VA, because the share of VBM and Early Vote ballots was much lower than pollsters estimated, and therefore, Democrats were unable to run up the numbers to edge out the combination of right-leaning Indies and 2020 Trump voters that came out on election day.  It's also important to note that many voters were voting to vote against the Democrat Party due to their disapproval of Joe Biden.  The Democrats wrongly attempted to shift the focus of the election on Trump in 2021, because it worked when Trump was on the ballot in 2017, 2018, and 2020.  Without abortion talking points, I think Democrats would lose solid blue states, because it still isn't more prevalent right now than Inflation, Crime, and Immigration.  All these issues have literally turned into local issues that Democrats are trying to run on.   

Democrats are simply not going to have to votes in Florida and North Carolina.  Definitely not going to win Ohio, and there chances are slipping in Wisconsin. The Generic Ballot has shifted to a +4% Republican Lead (Data for Progress, Rasmussen, NYTimes/Siena, Monmouth, Emerson).  It's going to come down to GA, AZ, NV, and PA. 

Democrats in Georgia in particular also underestimating the Ground Game of Incumbent Governor Brian Kemp. If you closely follow the Twitter Account of Erick Erickson, who is a Georgia Native, he thinks that Kemp has beefed up his GOTV Game compared to 2018 and if that's proven to be correct I think Kemp will carry Walker over the Finish Line if the current polling between Kemp/Abrams holds.

[2016]

Florida Early In-Person Vote: Republicans lead 52-32 with 57,000+ Cast.

[2016]

1st Day of Early In-Person in FL 3pm Update (37 of 67 Counties opened EIPV today) The other 30 will join on Saturday. Keep in mind that these are generally considered more blueish Counties

Republicans - 42,016 (52.72%)
Democrats - 25,126 (31.52%)
Independents - 12,562 (15.76%)

Democrats are down by 17K.

[2016]

Let's get this straight here about FLORIDA:
Republicans have about 700K to 1M more high propensity Supervoters and this comes from a Nonpartisan Data Guru in the State.

[2016]

FLORIDA
Combined VBM + Early In Person through Tues Oct. 25

DEMOCRATS  683,947

REPUBLICANS  664,055

INDEPENDENTS  318,974

Democrats lead by 19,892

Democrats were aided by a huge VBM Day (147K) and added 15K

Republicans were helped by a 117K In-Person Day were they netted 25K

Tomorrow Hernando, Volusia, Pasco, St. Johns, Nassau and Martin kick off Early In-Person Vote.

[2016]

Republicans take the lead in Florida
https://twitter.com/FreshTakeFla/status/1585667018774265859

And the notion by one of the Moderators here on Talk Elections that Hurricane IAN would be a problem for the Red Counties in Southwest Florida has also being DEBUNKED
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=CLL&election=&showPrecinctSplits=0
Collier County is performing as expected.

[2016]

The Florida Vote Breakdown of all 67 Counties:

[2016]

OH & NC are looking good as well.

Consider this: In 2020 in NC the D-R Spread of the EV was 43-27. This year it's 39-31 and Republicans in NC if they vote early usually do that in the Final Week before E-Day.

I dunno what the Polls in OH are cooking. Ryan isn't ahead.

[2016]

Repubs now +32k in Florida. 2.1mn have voted

Yeah, I think FL barring a Major Surge for D's is locked up for Republicans.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1586029783582142464

FL Republicans keep adding

[2016]

https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/politics/elections/2022/10/26/2022-ohio-elections-more-have-voted-early-than-2018/69589425007/

Here are the Early voting statistics in.OH 400K more votes than last time good news for Ryan

As I said it's gonna be a 53/46/1 map in the Senate because we winded up in 2010 with 53 seats and we lost the H Ryan now has a 52% chance of being the 53rd seat Beasley 48% chance

It's only gonna be a slim R majority anyways 225/210

We win the Senate in 24 lose MT or WV and gain FL with DEMINGS whom can beat Rick Scott , regain the H this our Filibuster proof voting majority

This is following 2012 where Pat McCrory won likewise Budd win and Brown wins and Ryan wins and then McMullin

BREAKING: You’re so far off it’s effing silly

“bUt mUh gEorGiA!!”

He is indeed waaaaay off EV in Ohio will be between 35-40 and E-Day will be between 60-65 %.

[2016]

@Unelectable Bystander,
I think Ohio & North Carolina is locked in for Republicans too.

The current D-R Spread in Ohio is 45-41 and in North Carolina if you believe the NC State Board of Elections it's 39-31 D-R down from 43-27 D-R in 2020.

The LAZY North Carolina Republican Party trends to get their Early Voters more out during the Final Week of EV.

I am pretty comfortable that those Spreads in OH & NC are not good enough to safe Tim Ryan and Cheri Beasley.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/FLVoiceNews/status/1586029783582142464
FL Republicans keep adding

The others are right 2016, you’ve already shown that Florida is gone. The only interesting part is Miami-Dade and it’s implications on FL-27. At this point I think it flips.

What indicates that FL-27 would flip? Salazar is a pretty heavy favorite. Miami-Dade also looked great for the Dems given the registration voting stats in 2020, it seemed like Biden was gonna win FL by 3pts until the actual results dropped.

What he meant is that Miami-Dade could flip to DeSantis! And Salazar will likely win by a bigger margin in 2022 compared what she did in 2020.
I mean look at this here:
This is Miami-Dade County
https://tqv.vrswebapps.com/?state=FL&county=DAD
Democratic Registration Edge in Miami-Dade means absolutely nothing if Democrats can't turn out their Voters.

[2016]

NV, AZ, and MN looking good but not FL...maybe OC was right about the sunbelt stack.

I wouldn't count my chickens just yet on Nevada.

While Democrats have an Advantage as John Ralston alluded to he also said that Independent Voters in the Silver State leaning Republican this year.

Consider this fact mate: Sisolak won Indies 55-37 per 2018 Exit Polls when he ran against Laxalt see here:
https://edition.cnn.com/election/2018/exit-polls/nevada

[2016]

Both, Rosenberg & Bonior are two absolutely FRAUDS.

Bonior is the Co-Owner of Clarity Campaign Labs who were FABRICATING POLLS to make the Florida Races look close and they won't be close at all.

These two people are complete hacks.

[2016]

To illustrate how FRAUDULENT the Target Smart Model is when you do "Modelled Party":

It gives Frank Mrvan a nearly 30 Point edge over Jennifer Ruth Green in IN-1.

It gives Elaine Luria a nearly 9 Point edge over Jen Kiggans in VA-2

And those are just two illustrations by me.

Trash Target Smart in the bin.