Why didn't Republicans pick up any CA house seats in 2010 or 2014?

[Roll Roons]

Republicans didn't flip any House seats in California in 2010 or 2014 despite the waves, although there were several near misses. They gained multiple seats in other blue states (most notably New York and Illinois) both years and in the State Assembly in 2014. What happened?

[Nyvin]

Republicans haven't "flipped" a congressional House seat in CA since 1998 (they won the new open seat in 2002, but there wasn't any incumbent Democrat winning and it was more or less a new district).

Western states in general have been moving away from Republicans for most of the past two decades, and probably none more so than California.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The 2002-2010 maps were notorious for being incumbent-friendly. 2006 saw a 6% drop among the Republicans share, but they only lost CD-6 to Jerry McNerney.

2014 was a big year for GOP Assembly flips though. They managed to pick up four seats (16th, 36th, 65th, 66th), as well as SD-34 & the newly drawn SD-28. Since then, however, only AD-36 & SD-28 have stayed Republican

[JerryArkansas]

Republicans haven't "flipped" a congressional House seat in CA since 1998 (they won the new open seat in 2002, but there wasn't any incumbent Democrat winning and it was more or less a new district).

Western states in general have been moving away from Republicans for most of the past two decades, and probably none more so than California.

They did flip one district in 2012, but that was mostly due to Jim Costa not running in the new 21st. 

[Frenchrepublican]

Because every passing year you have thousands of CA republicans who are either dying off or leaving the state.

[pppolitics]

Because California's population is exactly the antithesis of what the Republican base looks like.

It's like asking why Democrats did not pickup any AR house seats in 2018.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Because California's population is exactly the antithesis of what the Republican base looks like.

It's like asking why Democrats did not pickup any AR house seats in 2018.

Funny because under a 6 District map like this:



there is a non-zero chance that Democrats may well have had a net loss of 2 in the 2018 US House elections.

[HarrisonL]

The 2010 Red Wave just didn't apply to the Pacific Coast States nearly as much as it did everywhere else around the country. We saw a similar scenario in 2014, CA Republicans lost a ton of narrow races against incumbents like Costa and Bera.

[PAK Man]

Republicans haven't "flipped" a congressional House seat in CA since 1998 (they won the new open seat in 2002, but there wasn't any incumbent Democrat winning and it was more or less a new district).

They also haven't defeated a Democratic House incumbent since 1994.

[sg0508]

Gerrymandering.