latest Betfair odds

[NewYorkExpress]

Harris alone in first place again, and Avanatti now in the top 10.

Democratic nomination:

Harris 16.7
Warren 14.7
Sanders 12.8
Biden 11.1
Patrick 8.1
Newsom 7.5
Gabbard 6.6
Gillibrand 6.2
Avenatti 6.0
Booker 5.9

Republican nomination:

Trump 69.2
Pence 11.9
Kasich 6.4
Haley 3.7
Ryan 3.3
Romney 3.1

Four years ago at this time:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 14.5
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Romney 9.1
Cruz 6.0
Walker 5.3
Perry 4.8
Ryan 4.5

What idiots are betting on Avenantti?

[NewYorkExpress]

Still think Trump's a little high.

What do you think is the most likely scenario for him not being the nominee?

Even a tape(s) of Trump sexually assaulting minors or him shooting someone on 5th Avenue may not be enough to secure 67 votes for removal. But should the Dems retake at least one chamber of Congress, I think the subsequent investigations of Trump will do enough damage to make the party choose Pence for 2020, even if Trump is able to finish the term (yes, I think his approvals could get that low). Looking at the SCO and NYDOJ investigations pragmatically, I find it likely Junior, Kushner, and Kremlin Barbie will all be under indictment by the time the primaries start. One's son, son-in-law, and daughter being likely criminals isn't a good look for a presidential nominee. You also have to consider the testimony that all three of them will likely be giving against him in exchange for leniency. I expect it to be quite damaging.

I think Trump himself being charged with treason wouldn't stop Republicans from renominating him.

[NewYorkExpress]

Quick Dem. nomination update: O'Rourke now over 10 and in 5th place:

Harris 23.1
Warren 14.7
Biden 11.1
Sanders 11.1
O’Rourke 10.5
Patrick 7.8
Gillibrand 6.6
Booker 5.9
Gabbard 5.9

Could someone, anyone please explain why anyone bidding on O'Rourke would be a good idea when he probably won't win his Senate race this year, and even if he did, he'd have to start running for President immediately.

[NewYorkExpress]

Anyone putting money on O'Rourke is just dumb. The logistics of a run are ridiculous

he literally already said that he isn't doing it.

Michelle Obama's said she won't do it for six years now and people still think she'll run someday.

[NewYorkExpress]

Out of curiosity, who is betting on Haley?

She already endorsed Trump, and if for some reason Trump isn't running, she'd probably endorse Pence.

[NewYorkExpress]

Beto-mania is going wild, as O’Rourke is now a close second place to Harris:

Democratic nomination:

Harris 19.2
O’Rourke 18.5
Warren 12.5
Gabbard 11.4
Biden 10.5
Sanders 10.5
Booker 7.8
Gillibrand 7.2

Republican nomination:

Trump 75.0
Pence 10.0
Haley 6.0
Ryan 4.3
Kasich 4.2

Four years ago today:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Walker 12.5
Paul 11.6
Romney 11.6
Christie 10.9

I'd ask how Beto's odds shot that high up when he lost...but then I remembered Rick Santorum's loss in 2006, and how he almost beat Mitt Romney for the nomination in 2012.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'm a little shocked there aren't people speculating on Delaney and Ojeda, given they...you know, are actually running.

We'd all have egg on our collective faces if they turned out to be the only serious candidates for the Democrats.

[NewYorkExpress]

The big questions one must ask are:

Why is O'Rourke being bet on so heavily, and what idiots are still betting on Oprah? How many times does someone have to say no before people realize they won't run?

[NewYorkExpress]

I still think betting on Beto is a fool's errand.

[NewYorkExpress]

Trump's dropped below 40 on winning individual.  Kanye West's in a (distant) 5th place:

Winning Individual
Biden 58.8
Trump 37.8
Clinton 1.1
Pence 1.1
West 0.7

Who's betting on Hillary to win, and why?

[NewYorkExpress]

Duckworth creeping up closer to Rice to challenger her for the #2 spot….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 44.2
Rice 15.2
Duckworth 14.3
Warren 5.4
Demings 5.3
M. Obama 4.2
Grisham 3.7
Bottoms 3.3
Bass 2.8
Clinton 1.5

Four years ago today:

Dem. VP nominee
Kaine 46.3
Warren 18.6
Perez 14.9
Castro 13.1
Brown 10.5

GOP VP nominee
Pence 50.8
Gingrich 19.0
Christie 11.1
Sessions 8.1
Kasich 7.8

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3352768#msg3352768

GOP VP nominee
Portman 30.4
Pawlenty 15.2
Rice 9.5
Rubio 8.0
Jindal 6.5
Ryan 5.5
Thune 4.0
Christie 2.4
Ayotte 2.1
McDonnell 2.0
McMorris-Rodgers 1.1
Martinez 1.0
Ron Paul 0.7

Twelve years ago at about this point on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1627688#msg1627688

Dem. VP nominee
Clinton 20.0
Sebelius 15.0
Kaine 12.0
Bayh 10.2
Reed 7.9
Hagel 7.5
Biden 7.2
Nunn 7.0
McCaskill 6.5
Richardson 6.5

GOP VP nominee
Romney 20.0
Pawlenty 14.0
Palin 12.0
Huckabee 11.1
Crist 8.5
Fiorina 7.0
Portman 7.0
Cantor 6.0
Sanford 6.0
Thune 6.0

6.7% of bettors on Intrade are going to lose a lot of money. Neither Michelle Obama nor Hillary Clinton have given any indication that they even want to be vetted.

That said, Michelle Obama would make the perfect running mate for Biden...

[NewYorkExpress]

Bass surges into 3rd place in the Dem. VP market.  Meanwhile, Pence is below 90 to be the GOP VP nominee.

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 34.8
Rice 23.2
Bass 14.9
Duckworth 12.8
Warren 6.5
Demings 4.3

GOP VP nominee
Pence 88.9
Haley 7.2

Eight years ago at about this point on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3366280#msg3366280

GOP VP nominee
Portman 29.5
Pawlenty 24.6
Rubio 9.1
Thune 7.1
Rice 5.5
Jindal 5.2
McDonnell 5.0
Ryan 3.4
Ayotte 2.2
Christie 1.4
Martinez 0.7
McMorris-Rodgers 0.7

Twelve years ago today on Intrade:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1642342#msg1642342

Dem. VP nominee
Bayh 19.8
Sebelius 15.1
Biden 13.4
Kaine 12.6
Clinton 9.2
Nunn 9.0
Edwards 7.5
McCaskill 6.7
Clark 6.5
Reed 6.1

GOP VP nominee
Romney 38.7
Pawlenty 25.0
Palin 15.0
Portman 11.7
Crist 10.0
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 7.2

I want to know what ghouls are betting on Pence not being Trump's running mate. Do they know something we don't? (Like, does Pence have COVID-19, and these people aren't telling us?)

[NewYorkExpress]

Big surge for Harris in the VP market:

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 96.2
Clinton 2.9
M. Obama 0.6

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 94.1
Pence 3.2
Haley 1.1
Ryan 1.0

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 57.6
Rice 22.6
Duckworth 6.8
Bass 6.4
Warren 5.1

GOP VP nominee
Pence 89.5
Haley 6.5

We've actually got people who still think Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President?

What on earth is wrong with these people? Hillary's a dead dodo electorally, and Michelle's never expressed interest in elected office (though she'd make a fantastic running mate for Biden...)

[NewYorkExpress]

Big surge for Harris in the VP market:

Dem. pres. nominee
Biden 96.2
Clinton 2.9
M. Obama 0.6

GOP pres. nominee
Trump 94.1
Pence 3.2
Haley 1.1
Ryan 1.0

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 57.6
Rice 22.6
Duckworth 6.8
Bass 6.4
Warren 5.1

GOP VP nominee
Pence 89.5
Haley 6.5

We've actually got people who still think Hillary Clinton or Michelle Obama will be the Democratic nominee for President?

What on earth is wrong with these people? Hillary's a dead dodo electorally, and Michelle's never expressed interest in elected office (though she'd make a fantastic running mate for Biden...)

Michelle would be an awful running mate. She’s never held political office.

That still makes her a better choice than Susan Rice.

[NewYorkExpress]

Harris and Rice both gain at everyone else’s expense.  Bass now down to 7th place, behind Michelle Obama….

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 52.4
Rice 27.7
Duckworth 7.0
Warren 4.2
Demings 3.8
M. Obama 3.6
Bass 2.3

I'd like to point out that Michelle Obama is the only person on that list who is not actually being vetted.

[NewYorkExpress]

M. Obama 3.8

?? ?? ?? ?? ??

I know. As much as I would for Michelle Obama to be VP (and then President from 2024-2032), she hates politics. I doubt she even approved of her husband running for the State Senate, let alone the U.S Senate or President.

[NewYorkExpress]

Well, that didn’t last long.  Back to a Harris lead…

Dem. VP nominee
Harris 41.5
Rice 33.9
Whitmer 10.5
Duckworth 6.2
Warren 4.2
M. Obama 4.0

How is Michelle Obama doing better than Val Demings?

[NewYorkExpress]

Winning Individual
Biden 51.2
Trump 48.8

That's a huge bump for Trump.

Do bettors really not like Harris that much?