Is Illinois the most demographically representative state?

[King of Kensington]

Of the 50 states, it seems Illinois is closest to the demographic average.

The population is 58% NHW, 18% Latino, 14% Black and 6% Asian - very close to the average except slightly more Black.

Foreign born population is 14% - also the national average.  And like the US, Mexico and India are the top countries of birth for immigrants - with four times as many Mexican as Indian immigrants.

It is however more urban and slightly more educated than average.

[mileslunn]

Of the 50 states, it seems Illinois is closest to the demographic average.

The population is 58% NHW, 18% Latino, 14% Black and 6% Asian - very close to the average except slightly more Black.

Foreign born population is 14% - also the national average.  And like the US, Mexico and India are the top countries of birth for immigrants - with four times as many Mexican as Indian immigrants.

It is however more urban and slightly more educated than average.

On race probably true but its much more urban than country thus why more Democrat.  Ohio & Missouri for a long time were quite representative thus why bellwether.  But as GOP gained a lock on white Evangelicals, Missouri drifted away while Ohio drifted away when education became more important in voting patterns.  Both have Black populations close to national average so were racially similar but now whiter as both have a Hispanic population much smaller than national average.

I would say actually Pennsylvania is probably closest to national average even if imperfect.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Of the 50 states, it seems Illinois is closest to the demographic average.

The population is 58% NHW, 18% Latino, 14% Black and 6% Asian - very close to the average except slightly more Black.

Foreign born population is 14% - also the national average.  And like the US, Mexico and India are the top countries of birth for immigrants - with four times as many Mexican as Indian immigrants.

It is however more urban and slightly more educated than average.

On race probably true but its much more urban than country thus why more Democrat.  Ohio & Missouri for a long time were quite representative thus why bellwether.  But as GOP gained a lock on white Evangelicals, Missouri drifted away while Ohio drifted away when education became more important in voting patterns.  Both have Black populations close to national average so were racially similar but now whiter as both have a Hispanic population much smaller than national average.

I would say actually Pennsylvania is probably closest to national average even if imperfect.

PA actually has a decently representative sample of smaller cities as well; the connection of cities in Illinois outside of Chicagoland are just weird.

[King of Kensington]

Illinois is an odd matchup of huge metropolitan area and declining cornbelt which somehow matches the national demographic average.

[Samof94]

Illinois is basically the New York State of the Midwest. It has a few smaller metro areas and tends to lean right but is dominated by one giant city.

[King of Kensington]

On race probably true but its much more urban than country thus why more Democrat.  Ohio & Missouri for a long time were quite representative thus why bellwether.  But as GOP gained a lock on white Evangelicals, Missouri drifted away while Ohio drifted away when education became more important in voting patterns.  Both have Black populations close to national average so were racially similar but now whiter as both have a Hispanic population much smaller than national average.

I would say actually Pennsylvania is probably closest to national average even if imperfect.

In 1980 when the US was 12% Black, 6% Hispanic and 3% Asian Ohio and Missouri looked reasonably close to the demographic average.  But with Hispanics becoming the largest minority and Hispanics and Asians together growing from less than 10% to about over a quarter of the US population, these states are much reflective of modern US demographics.

[Sol]

PA actually has a decently representative sample of smaller cities as well; the connection of cities in Illinois outside of Chicagoland are just weird.

I'm curious what you mean by that; they seem like fairly typical lower Midwest cities to me.

[King of Kensington]

Illinois is very much at the crossroads too.  It includes the Mississippi River (once viewed as the dividing line between east and west) and also borders the south.

Furthermore I think you can argue Chicago is the largest metropolitan area with fairly "typical"  demographics of urban America, being 53% NHW.  The NYC region has very atypical demographics (Italian is the largest ancestry, half of NHWs are Italian or Jewish, there are few white Protestants and you have many nationalities represented in the population that are rare in the rest of America) and L.A. is less than 30% NHW.

[King of Kensington]

From the 2020 AP Votecast Survey:

"Which of the following best describes the area where you live?"

National

Urban 20%
Suburban 45%
Small town 17%
Rural 18%

Illinois

Urban 24%
Suburban 49%
Small town 12%
Rural 14%

Ohio

Urban 16%
Suburban 48%
Small town 16%
Rural 21%

Pennsylvania

Urban 17%
Suburban 44%
Small town 17%
Rural 22%

Florida

Urban 23%
Suburban 56%
Small town 12%
Rural 9%

[King of Kensington]

When it comes to per capita income, Pennsylvania is right on the nose average (via Quickfacts):

Per capita income:

Illinois $43,198
Pennsylvania $41,234
Florida $38,850
Ohio $37,729

(US = $41,261)

Ratio to US average

Illinois 1.05
Pennsylvania 1.00
Florida 0.94
Ohio 0.91

[Roll Roons]

States closest to the national average in certain demographic characteristics:
 
-White population: IL (57.3% vs. national average of 57.6)
-Black population: NJ (15.2% vs. national average of 14.2)
-Hispanic population: NY (19.5%, pretty much exactly in line with national average)
-Asian population: IL (6.8% vs. national average of 7.2)
-4-year college degree attainment: NC (34.9%, pretty much exactly in line with national average)
-Median household income: AZ ($69,056 vs. national average of $69,717)
-HDI rating: KS (0.922 vs. national average of 0.921)
-Urbanization: OR (80.5% vs. national average of 80%)
-Couldn't find good data on religiosity, but I'd be curious as to what the most average state is in this regard.

IL has a higher black population, slightly lower Hispanic population than the country but it is more college-educated, wealthier and more urbanized.

[King of Kensington]

From the Pew Religious Landscape Survey:

National

Evangelical  25%
Mainline Protestant  15%
Catholic  21%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

Florida

Evangelical  24%
Mainline  14%
Catholic  21%
Non-Christian  6%
None  24%

Illinois

Evangelical  20%
Mainline  16%
Catholic  28%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

Ohio

Evangelical  29%
Mainline  17%
Catholic  18%
Non-Christian  4%
None  22%

Pennsylvania 

Evangelical  19%
Mainline  23%
Catholic  24%
Non-Christian  6%
None  21%

[mileslunn]

From the Pew Religious Landscape Survey:

National

Evangelical  25%
Mainline Protestant  15%
Catholic  21%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

Florida

Evangelical  24%
Mainline  14%
Catholic  21%
Non-Christian  6%
None  24%

Illinois

Evangelical  20%
Mainline  16%
Catholic  28%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

Ohio

Evangelical  29%
Mainline  17%
Catholic  18%
Non-Christian  4%
None  22%

Pennsylvania 

Evangelical  19%
Mainline  23%
Catholic  24%
Non-Christian  6%
None  21%

Ohio a bit on high side for Evangelical, but I think main reason it has swung GOP is more education gap and thus why Obama won it both times but now no longer in play.

For Catholics Illinois on high side but suspect most live in Chicagoland and in rest of state its probably well below national average, particularly southern parts of state.  Largest ones for Catholics would be Hispanic, Irish, Italian, and Polish and those groups all tend to be mostly in Chicagoland area.  Germans large throughout state but I believe German Catholics tend to be found further north like in Wisconsin and less so as you get in more Evangelical areas. 

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1789026779757244507

https://twitter.com/byHeatherLong/status/1789027737891406225

[Pericles]

Statistically it seems to be. It would be neat if it was because it is 'middle America' location-wise. Obviously though it doesn't represent the nation politically, so I wonder where the difference arises.

[RINO Tom]

We certainly used to be circa the late 1980s, when Chicagoland made up a smaller percentage of the state's population, Downstate Illinois was a bit more thriving and the state was more in line with the nation politically (we voted for Bush in 1988 by just a couple points less than the nation).  More specifically, my hometown of Peoria was long described as a perfect little microcosm WITHIN such a representative state!  While the phrase "Will it play in Peoria?" did originally refer to our musical/play scene being one of the best springboards to Broadway, it indeed came to refer to Peoria being a great sample size of the American market place for products.

From the Pew Religious Landscape Survey:

National

Evangelical  25%
Mainline Protestant  15%
Catholic  21%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

...

Illinois

Evangelical  20%
Mainline  16%
Catholic  28%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

It is worth noting that Pew categorizes the Mainline churches as the Seven Sisters plus other theologically moderate-to-liberal churches (e.g., the Reformed Church in America) that are part of ecumenical organizations, and then they just lump all conservative denominations into their "Evangelical" category.  This is problematic, as groups like the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod are not "Evangelical" in any way, shape or form ... they're just conservative.  They practice infant baptism, have formal liturgy, place a high emphasis on the sacraments and church tradition, etc.  They are in no way "Born Again."  Thus, many denominations researchers (such as Joshua from the Ready to Harvest YouTube channel) prefer an additional category of "Confessional Protestant," which describes the more conservative denominations from the more historic/classical Protestant traditions.  

If you moved those groups out of the "Evangelical" category and left that category to refer more to what we think of as "Evangelical" like Baptists, Pentecostals, Non-Denominational, etc., Illinois' numbers would look like this:

16% MAINLINE PROTESTANT
3% United Methodist Church
2% Evangelical Lutheran Church in America
2% American Baptist Churches USA
1% Presbyterian Church (USA)
1% Episcopal Church
1% United Church of Christ
6% Other

15% EVANGELICAL PROTESTANT
2% Southern Baptist Convention
2% Independent Baptists
2% Christian Churches and Churches of Christ
1% Assemblies of God (Pentecostal)
5% Non-Denominational
3% Other

5% CONFESSIONAL PROTESTANT
3% Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod
1% Presbyterian Church in America and other Presbyterian denominations
1% Anglican, Methodist, Congregationalist, etc. confessional denominations

TL;DR

If you are speaking of what everyone would think of as "Mainline" and "Evangelical" denominations, there are more Mainline Protestants in Illinois.  The problem is lumping groups that are not Evangelical in with the Evangelical category for Pew.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

We certainly used to be circa the late 1980s, when Chicagoland made up a smaller percentage of the state's population, Downstate Illinois was a bit more thriving and the state was more in line with the nation politically (we voted for Bush in 1988 by just a couple points less than the nation).  More specifically, my hometown of Peoria was long described as a perfect little microcosm WITHIN such a representative state!  While the phrase "Will it play in Peoria?" did originally refer to our musical/play scene being one of the best springboards to Broadway, it indeed came to refer to Peoria being a great sample size of the American market place for products.

From the Pew Religious Landscape Survey:

National

Evangelical  25%
Mainline Protestant  15%
Catholic  21%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

...

Illinois

Evangelical  20%
Mainline  16%
Catholic  28%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

It is worth noting that Pew categorizes the Mainline churches as the Seven Sisters plus other theologically moderate-to-liberal churches (e.g., the Reformed Church in America) that are part of ecumenical organizations, and then they just lump all conservative denominations into their "Evangelical" category.  This is problematic, as groups like the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod are not "Evangelical" in any way, shape or form ... they're just conservative.  They practice infant baptism, have formal liturgy, place a high emphasis on the sacraments and church tradition, etc.  They are in no way "Born Again."  Thus, many denominations researchers (such as Joshua from the Ready to Harvest YouTube channel) prefer an additional category of "Confessional Protestant," which describes the more conservative denominations from the more historic/classical Protestant traditions.  

If you moved those groups out of the "Evangelical" category and left that category to refer more to what we think of as "Evangelical" like Baptists, Pentecostals, Non-Denominational, etc., Illinois' numbers would look like this:

16% MAINLINE PROTESTANT
3% United Methodist Church
2% Evangelical Lutheran Church in America
2% American Baptist Churches USA
1% Presbyterian Church (USA)
1% Episcopal Church
1% United Church of Christ
6% Other

15% EVANGELICAL PROTESTANT
2% Southern Baptist Convention
2% Independent Baptists
2% Christian Churches and Churches of Christ
1% Assemblies of God (Pentecostal)
5% Non-Denominational
3% Other

5% CONFESSIONAL PROTESTANT
3% Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod
1% Presbyterian Church in America and other Presbyterian denominations
1% Anglican, Methodist, Congregationalist, etc. confessional denominations

TL;DR

If you are speaking of what everyone would think of as "Mainline" and "Evangelical" denominations, there are more Mainline Protestants in Illinois.  The problem is lumping groups that are not Evangelical in with the Evangelical category for Pew.

I think you're misunderstanding the definition of "Evangelical".  Certainly, many Evangelical churches are of the "low-church" variety, like Baptists, that believe in credobaptism and have a more symbolic view of sacraments.  But, that's not what defines Evangelical.  "Evangelical" means believing in the need to evangelize (due to believing that all non-Christians go to Hell).  Conservative denominations like the PCA, LCMS, ACNA, and Methodist offshoots believe that.  That's why they're classified as "Evangelical".

[RINO Tom]

We certainly used to be circa the late 1980s, when Chicagoland made up a smaller percentage of the state's population, Downstate Illinois was a bit more thriving and the state was more in line with the nation politically (we voted for Bush in 1988 by just a couple points less than the nation).  More specifically, my hometown of Peoria was long described as a perfect little microcosm WITHIN such a representative state!  While the phrase "Will it play in Peoria?" did originally refer to our musical/play scene being one of the best springboards to Broadway, it indeed came to refer to Peoria being a great sample size of the American market place for products.

From the Pew Religious Landscape Survey:

National

Evangelical  25%
Mainline Protestant  15%
Catholic  21%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

...

Illinois

Evangelical  20%
Mainline  16%
Catholic  28%
Non-Christian  6%
None  23%

It is worth noting that Pew categorizes the Mainline churches as the Seven Sisters plus other theologically moderate-to-liberal churches (e.g., the Reformed Church in America) that are part of ecumenical organizations, and then they just lump all conservative denominations into their "Evangelical" category.  This is problematic, as groups like the Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod are not "Evangelical" in any way, shape or form ... they're just conservative.  They practice infant baptism, have formal liturgy, place a high emphasis on the sacraments and church tradition, etc.  They are in no way "Born Again."  Thus, many denominations researchers (such as Joshua from the Ready to Harvest YouTube channel) prefer an additional category of "Confessional Protestant," which describes the more conservative denominations from the more historic/classical Protestant traditions.  

If you moved those groups out of the "Evangelical" category and left that category to refer more to what we think of as "Evangelical" like Baptists, Pentecostals, Non-Denominational, etc., Illinois' numbers would look like this:

16% MAINLINE PROTESTANT
3% United Methodist Church
2% Evangelical Lutheran Church in America
2% American Baptist Churches USA
1% Presbyterian Church (USA)
1% Episcopal Church
1% United Church of Christ
6% Other

15% EVANGELICAL PROTESTANT
2% Southern Baptist Convention
2% Independent Baptists
2% Christian Churches and Churches of Christ
1% Assemblies of God (Pentecostal)
5% Non-Denominational
3% Other

5% CONFESSIONAL PROTESTANT
3% Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod
1% Presbyterian Church in America and other Presbyterian denominations
1% Anglican, Methodist, Congregationalist, etc. confessional denominations

TL;DR

If you are speaking of what everyone would think of as "Mainline" and "Evangelical" denominations, there are more Mainline Protestants in Illinois.  The problem is lumping groups that are not Evangelical in with the Evangelical category for Pew.

I think you're misunderstanding the definition of "Evangelical".  Certainly, many Evangelical churches are of the "low-church" variety, like Baptists, that believe in credobaptism and have a more symbolic view of sacraments.  But, that's not what defines Evangelical.  "Evangelical" means believing in the need to evangelize (due to believing that all non-Christians go to Hell).  Conservative denominations like the PCA, LCMS, ACNA, and Methodist offshoots believe that.  That's why they're classified as "Evangelical".

The Pew study specifically states in its methodology that it is using "Evangelical" and "born-again" as synonymous.  Even if we grant that confessional Protestant denominations like the LCMS have some significant emphasis on evangelism efforts (I would certainly dispute this), they are NOT "born again."  Lutheran, Presbyterian, Anglican, etc. theology specifically teaches AGAINST some type of second "born again" experience, believing that baptism is a sacrament and an act by God (not an act by men to show faith or something) ... it is fundamentally different from the more Baptist understanding of what makes someone a "Christian" - a necessary "born again" experience.

Even ignoring all of that, I will tell you as someone that was baptized LCMS Lutheran that zero people in that denomination would identify as "Evangelical," which is why other studies that use the methodology of first asking if someone is Protestant and then asking if they are "Evangelical" actually show that there are more Mainline Protestants ... because they do the opposite of Pew by defining "Evangelical" first and then lump everybody else into some "Mainline" category.  I believe both methods are very flawed and end up inflating the numbers for one group ... hence why I prefer the categorization method of adding another "Confessional Protestant" category.

I'll tell you right now that even with your conservative theology, you would feel more at home in an American Baptist Churches USA church than an LCMS Lutheran one.